Stocks absolutely, positively don't want to go down.

• Tariffs? War in the Middle East? Rising energy prices? Surging deficits? High interest rates? Weak dollar? Plunging CEO confidence? Climate change? Nope, nope, nope. The TACO trade is for everyone.

Why it matters: Investors are already ignoring a slew of headwinds.

• Any of a number of risks could be the final straw that breaks the stock market's grind to the upside.

What they're saying: Lori Calvasina, the head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, observed three main risks cloud the path forward for stocks in a client note Monday.

• Valuations could be compressed if national security concerns rise.
• The sentiment recovery after April's brief bear market could be derailed.
• Rising oil prices (if they turn around again) could weigh on U.S. equities.

Reality check: Stocks rallied yesterday after Iran conducted a performative retaliation, sending oil plunging over 7% and reinforcing relentless investor optimism.

• President Trump announced a ceasefire that both sides confirmed, but Israel later accused Iran of violating it. The coming days will be crucial.

Yes, but: Markets are already priced for "multiple best case scenarios," David Bahnsen, chief investment officer with The Bahnsen Group, writes in a note.

• This year alone, investors have traded on hopes of tariff deals, rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and continued outperformance of AI names, pushing the broader market to trade at 23 times forward earnings, a historically rich valuation.
• That leaves "plenty of risk for short-term volatility," Bahnsen writes.

Zoom in: While the threat of war remains unpredictable, investors would be wise to continue to focus on the "known" unknowns, including the risks that tariffs drive inflation higher, keeping interest rates elevated, warns JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist David Kelly.

Zoom out: A fresh lift in oil prices could add fuel to the inflation expectations fire, which could make it even less likely the Fed lowers interest rates.

• That could be a bearish signal for investors already eager for cuts, with Bahnsen arguing lower rates are needed for the Fed to be "ahead of the curve."

What we're watching: Stocks overall are up 0.5% since President Trump's inauguration, after the S&P 500 rebounded after "Liberation Day" with the fastest snapback since 1982.

The bottom line: If investors continue to ignore geopolitical risks, that could be a sign of a bigger downturn to come, rather than a bullish signal for those who continue to test the limits of their own conviction.

Forget top hats and monocles, millionaires look positively middle class now, especially with those surging markets of late.

Why it matters: The number of "everyday" millionaires — those with wealth between $1 million and $5 million — is soaring. But many of these folks don't necessarily feel rich.

By the numbers: There were nearly 52 million "everyday" millionaires in the world last year, per a recent report from UBS. That's four times the number in 2000.

• Even accounting for inflation, the number of everyday millionaires in 2024 was 2.5 times what it was in 2000. The wealth manager does not break out how many of these folks live in the U.S. though America has, by far, more millionaires than any other country in the world.
• New American millionaires were minted at a rate of about 1,000 a day last year. There are nearly 24 million millionaires in the U.S., 40% of the world's total, and about four times the number than runner-up China.

"Millionaires are no longer Monopoly caricatures," says Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management. "It's shifted to encompass a very large portion of the population."

State of play: Driving this growth in the U.S. are home prices, which have skyrocketed in recent years, and the rapidly aging population, he says.

• More and more boomers are sitting free and clear on homes that have seen their values rise. The share of Americans who own their homes mortgage-free sits at a record high of 40%, and over half of these folks have reached retirement age.

Between the lines: Boomers are the first generation to rely on private savings for retirement, mostly through 401(k)s.

• These plans don't generate steady and predictable income like a pension would. A pension doesn't show in your wealth tally the way a 401(k) does.
• So even though 401(k)s might make you technically wealthy, they do leave many feeling perpetually insecure, Axios has reported.

Reality check: No matter how these folks feel, they are doing very well.

• 36.8 million Americans lived in poverty in 2023, according to census data. Worldwide, 3.5 billion (with a "b") people are considered poor.

The bottom line: While many Americans are struggling to afford to retire or to simply make ends meet, a growing number are in a much better place.

Everyday millionaires feel pretty "normal," judging by the dozen or so who spoke to Axios about their wealth.

Why it matters: It's a sign, perhaps, of how costly it has become to lead what many consider a basic middle-class American life.

Zoom in: Some of these folks said they are just getting by. They're house poor, living in pricey homes with little left over after paying the mortgage.

• "We don't take expensive vacations ever. I drive a 2016 Honda Odyssey with 175,000 miles on it," says Alisha Ard, a stay-at-home mom of four who lives in Ventura County, California, where the median home costs over $800,000.
• Ard and her husband have a $1 million mortgage on a $2 million house. "I know we're technically 'millionaires' with our home equity but it isn't really helpful for monthly expenses," she says.

Feel rich? Most said no: "My mind was blown when I discovered that I am in fact one of these people," says Glen Czaplewski, who lives with his wife and four-year-old in a townhouse in Denver and works in the insurance industry. He says they keep to a budget and "live a nice life."

• It's still nothing extraordinary. "It's honestly hard to describe how incredibly pedestrian and normal our lives are," he says.

"Somehow we have managed to build a net worth that puts us into the top 5-8%," one self-identified boomer from Utah tells Axios in an email, asking for anonymity to discuss his personal finances. He says he and his wife, both teachers, have a net worth of about $4 million.

• Does he feel rich? No. Selling the house would be a "wash," he points out, as they'd have to pay for some kind of shelter, likely at a high price.
• Careful long-term investments and frugality landed them here, along with living in a town that's seen real estate prices shoot up. "We do feel secure," he concedes.

The big picture: "Everyone is a lot better off," Donovan of UBS says, "but relatively speaking, people don't necessarily feel that."