Mortgage rates are inching up as tensions escalate in Iran — but Houston's housing market is better positioned than most to absorb the shock.

Why it matters: While national headlines tie rising rates to geopolitical instability, Houston's economy has an energy sector and general affordability buffer that could keep homebuying relatively steady.

• "I don't think this conflict … has impacted our housing market one iota," Ted Jones, real estate economist with the Houston Association of Realtors, tells Axios.
• That's because Houston tends to benefit when oil prices rise.

The big picture: Mortgage rates have crept up slightly since the Iran conflict began — but not dramatically.

• The average 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 6.43% in late March from 6.3%, while applications fell 10.5%, per the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Yes, but: Rates are still hovering in what is considered a historically normal range of roughly 6% to 8%, Jones says.

Zoom in: Though Houston's economy is not as reliant on the energy industry as it once was, it still has deep ties, which "buffers the Houston economy," per Jones.

• The city is home to giants like Exxon and Chevron and a dense network of energy firms. When conflict pushes oil prices higher, those companies ramp up drilling and spending — and much of that work flows through Houston.
• That translates to more well-paying jobs and more households that feel secure enough to buy rather than rent — helping insulate Houston's housing market from the full force of higher mortgage rates.

What they're saying: "When oil prices go up, that means we're going to drill more, and we're going to go through many Houston firms that are involved in that, and they're going to grow and they're going to hire more people, and they're going to buy more houses," Jones tells Axios.

The intrigue: Houston's relative affordability gives it a cushion, too, unlike other markets, including Austin, that may feel rate pressure more acutely.

Reality check: Higher oil prices can still strain buyers. Rising gas costs can squeeze household budgets, especially for commuters.

Go deeper

Texas already has one of the country's first AI laws on the books, but Americans say they still want more guardrails.

The big picture: Nearly two-thirds of Americans now use AI regularly and want stronger oversight, but are conflicted on how far regulation should go, according to a new national survey from AI governance nonprofit Fathom shared exclusively with Axios.

By the numbers: 40% of respondents say they're excited about AI, while 23% say they're concerned. Another 35% feel both.

• 90% say it's important that AI products for kids should be verified as "safe" before they're used.

Catch up quick: Texas lawmakers moved ahead of Washington last year, becoming the third state to adopt a comprehensive AI law.

• The law, which took effect Jan. 1 and applies broadly to companies doing business in Texas, bans harmful AI systems that encourage a person to commit physical self-harm or engage in criminal activity.
• It also prohibits discrimination, constitutional rights violations and exploitation of minors.

Yes, but: The policy gaps are already showing up.

• Texas lawmakers also banned deepfakes in campaign ads, but AI-generated political content is still spreading in 2026 races.

The bottom line: AI policy is moving but not as fast as the tech.

Methodology

💊 A new FDA-approved GLP-1 weight loss drug will be manufactured in Eli Lilly's $6.5 billion Houston plant. (Houston Business Journal)

🛂 Two Iranian Christian asylum seekers were detained by ICE, with advocates warning one could face execution if deported. (Houston Public Media)

🛍️ Four new retail brands have opened at The Galleria, including a Japanese toy store and an Italian luxury fashion brand. (Community Impact)

Book lovers, it's time to visit as many local independent bookstores as you can before the end of April.

State of play: 31 bookstores have united for the third annual Houston Bookstore Crawl.

• We have a large variety of bookstores throughout the Greater Houston area — from shops that opened post-Katrina to new ones like Dreamers Books and Culture.
• Other participants include Pearland's Lit Java book and coffee shop; Murder by the Book in Rice Village; and Copperfield's Books in Spring.
• Check out a map of the booksellers here.

How it works: Pick up a crawl card at one of the participating stores. Get your card stamped or signed by each of the stores you visit through the end of April.

• Once you visit 15, you can submit your card to any of the participating bookstores to be entered into a raffle for gifts.
• Every store you hit after the first 15 counts as an additional entry. The cards must be turned in by the end of business on April 30.

The bottom line: Support Houston's vibrant book community.

Artemis II astronauts have now traveled farther than any other humans.

Why it matters: NASA's return to the Moon keeps getting cooler and cooler.

Driving the news: The crew yesterday surpassed Apollo 13's distance record from 1970 of 248,655 miles.

• Artemis II's Orion vessel reached a distance of more than 252,000 miles from Earth, according to NASA.

Zoom out: The crew of four astronauts achieved the feat on their way around the Moon yesterday as the crew gathered information and data about the lunar surface for future NASA missions.

What's next: Orion is en route back to Earth and is scheduled to splash down in the Pacific Ocean on Friday.