What 2026 could hold for Houston's housing market
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Expect lower mortgage rates but a relatively tough yet stable housing market in the Houston region this year.
Why it matters: The fate of the housing market is tied to factors both national (like interest rates) and local (housing inventory) — and homeownership remains part of the American dream that remains unaffordable for many.
The big picture: Redfin projects 30-year fixed rates will average 6.3%, dipping from 6.6% in 2025 while staying well above pandemic-era levels.
- "A lot of the challenges that the housing market has been grappling with — the lack of affordability and the 'lock-in effect' on existing homeowners — are still going to be present in 2026, but the grip is kind of loosening," Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale tells Axios.
Zoom in: Houston Association of Realtors Chair Theresa Hill tells Axios that sales are expected to be consistent, on track for how the market behaved last year.
- There continues to be a "steady demand" for single-family homes, and sellers are "coming to the realization that they may have to do some modest price adjustments because of the rising inventory levels."
Flashback: Houston-area single-family home sales rose 3.8% year over year in 2025, from 85,373 sales in 2024 to 88,634, according to the HAR full-year report.
- The median home price was flat year over year at around $335,000.
Stunning stat: One of the defining trends of 2025 was the continued expansion of housing inventory.
- Inventory in the Houston region surged to a record in July, with 39,490 active listings and 5.5 months of supply — the highest since 2012.
What they're saying: Hill says the region is more balanced and has "returned to more pre-pandemic conditions," giving buyers more options and forcing sellers to be more flexible on pricing.
Yes, but: Homes sold for about 94% of the list price on average last year, Hill says. But the era of bidding wars has faded in many neighborhoods
Zoom out: A regional divide in the housing market isn't going away.
- Home prices are rising faster in the Northeast and Midwest, where there's less newly built housing.
- In the South and West, they're softening as pandemic-era migration slows and insurance costs climb.