Axios Hill Leaders

August 13, 2026
One more sleep until the weekend. Tonight's edition is 968 words, 3.5 minutes.
- 🗳️ Scoop: GOP polling surprise
- 📺 Dems cry foul
1 big thing: 🗳️ Scoop: GOP polling surprise
President Trump's top political hands had some surprising advice for Senate Republicans last week: Talk more about health care.
Why it matters: Trump and the MAGA base are fixated on the voter-ID and proof-of-citizenship SAVE Act. But Republican message testing from Trump's own pollster suggests candidates are better off focusing elsewhere.
🚗 Driving the news: Top Trumpworld campaign officials, including James Blair, pollster Tony Fabrizio and Senate Leadership Fund executive director Alex Latcham, briefed senators and aides Aug. 5 on the midterms.
- ❗️ They presented polling on the party's strongest potential campaign messages, according to slides we viewed.
- One of the strongest: going after health insurance companies.
Republicans had a 46-point advantage when calling for greater transparency around insurers' profits, claim denials and wait times for patient care while hitting Democrats for "lining insurers' pockets."
- Banning congressional stock trading and cracking down on fraud also emerged as potentially powerful issues, with 44- and 38-point advantages for Republicans, respectively.
🤔 The intrigue: Messaging on the SAVE Act had far less upside, giving Republicans just a 14-point advantage over Democratic messaging on the issue, according to the results shared in the meeting.
- "Voters prefer a Republican who supports the SAVE America Act by double digits over a Democrat who opposes it. We have a litany of policies that deliver for Americans and will put us over the top in November," a source familiar with the presentation said.
Between the lines: Health care has long been a weakness for Republicans. The decision to let enhanced Obamacare tax credits expire last year was broadly unpopular.
- 🥊 Now, Republicans see an opening to go on offense by making insurance companies the enemy.
🎧 What we're hearing: Blair said to expect MAGA Inc. and Republican National Committee money to start flowing into midterm races soon, though he did not specify when or where, according to two sources familiar with what was said.
- National Republican Senatorial Committee chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) echoed the message. "Good news coming our way is what they basically indicated," he told us in a brief interview after the meeting.
- 😫 Anxiety has grown in GOP campaign circles over when, where and whether Trump will unleash the more than $400 million sitting in MAGA Inc. to boost Republicans in the midterms.
"I control it," Trump told Punchbowl News when asked about the super PAC. "I could spend it on pretty much anything I want."
- But he added, "I'm going to help Republicans."
👀 What to watch: The RNC coming online in the midterms would be a major boost.
- The committee has $128 million in cash on hand. By comparison, the Democratic National Committee has $16 million, plus $18 million in debt.
- ⚖️ A recent Supreme Court ruling also allows the RNC to spend unlimited amounts in coordination with candidates, meaning the money can stretch further through lower TV ad rates unavailable to super PACs such as MAGA Inc.
— Stef W. Kight
2. 📺 Dems cry foul
😡 House Democrats are crying foul over a new Republican ad campaign touting swing-district GOP lawmakers' pre-recess support for a bill banning members of Congress and their families from buying individual stocks.
Why it matters: Democrats groaned that last month's vote on the Stop Insider Trading Act amounted to a big Republican setup. Now they're fuming that the trap has been sprung.
- 💰 Issue advocacy group Choose Freedom Inc. has put a whopping $9 million into running the spots across nearly 20 congressional districts, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.
- "Corrupt congressmen treat the House floor like a trading floor. Thankfully, Congressman Rob Bresnahan voted to stop it," one of the ads says.
Catch up quick: Democrats complained that the bill the House passed in July applies only to the legislative branch and has carveouts for holding and selling pre-owned stocks as well as for buying pooled investment vehicles such as mutual funds and ETFs.
- House Democrats also fumed at the inclusion of an unrelated provision in the bill requiring photo ID to vote in federal elections — and in the end, only 13 of them voted for it.
💬 What they're saying: "To call this a stock trading ban is disgraceful," Rep. Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.), the ranking member of the House Administration Committee, told us in an interview.
- "I don't know how anybody would sign off on this," he said of the ad campaign. "This is why people in America hate politics. This is really as reprehensible as I've seen."
- Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) said Democrats "will pass a bill that bans owning stock and include the administration" within "the first 100 hours" of a Democratic House majority.
🔥 "This was such an obvious setup, and we just fell right for it," said one House Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity to contradict their party leadership's messaging on the vote.
Between the lines: Some Democrats bitterly noted the irony behind the group praising Bresnahan (R-Pa.) specifically on stock trading, pointing to the considerable public scrutiny he has faced on the topic.
- "For Rob Bresnahan in particular, who is the poster child for a member who is making countless trades, it is despicable. It's reckless. He should be ashamed of himself," Morelle said.
- Bresnahan has denied having any personal involvement in his trades, and his portfolio's activity has reportedly slowed in recent months.
The other side: "Calling someone else 'shameless' is a masterclass in projection after Morelle refused to vote for the bill," the Bresnahan campaign said in a statement to us.
- "Perhaps next time he can put his name on common-sense legislation that would benefit the American people instead of crying that someone else actually did something to solve the problem."
— Andrew Solender
This newsletter was edited by Kathleen Hunter and copy edited by Brad Bonhall.
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