House Democrats will need to overperform Vice President Harris by roughly three percentage points in swing districts to capture the majority in 2026, according to our analysis of presidential margins in congressional districts.

Why it matters: In special elections over the last year, Democrats have been surpassing Harris' 2024 margins by double digits, putting the majority clearly in reach.

• 🌌 But the universe of competitive House seats is historically small. Even an unambiguous national move toward the Democrats will result in a relatively narrow Democratic majority.

Flashback: The 2018 midterms saw a 6.5 percentage point swing in Democrats' favor compared to President Trump's 2016 margins, giving them 41 new seats for a 235 -199 majority, according to the Cook Political Report.

• A similar shift in 2026 would translate into 12 additional Democratic seats, giving them a 227-208 majority, according to the data, which includes redistricted maps, according to The Downballot and Sabato's Crystal Ball.
• But House Speaker Mike Johnson could add another 12 seats to his majority if GOP candidates fare just 1% better than Trump did last cycle. That'd put Johnson at a comfortable 232-204 margin.

Zoom out: Democrats are banking that the electorate will look a lot less Trumpy when the president's name is not on the ballot. Their voters, Democrats argue, are highly motivated and engaged when Trump is in office.

• 😱 Republicans haven't hit the panic button, but they are starting to look for it, with private chatter about the possibility of losing the Senate.
• A recent shock upset in a conservative Texas state Senate contest sent shockwaves throughout the party. It prompted a memo from the NRSC to raise alarms about their contested primary.
• Still, GOP strategists are smiling at their sizable cash advantage and take comfort in the strength of their incumbents.

Zoom in: Presidential performance in a congressional district doesn't guarantee a predetermined outcome, but in the Trump era, the number of crossover districts is at a historic low.

• Thirteen House Democrats prevailed in seats that Trump carried in 2024. A total of three Republicans held on in Harris districts.
• In 2008, after President Obama's first election, there were 83 crossover districts.

What we're watching: After tit-for-tat redistricting in six states, Republicans appear to have drawn themselves another eight seats.

• Democrats yesterday proposed adding another four in Virginia (pending judicial review), but Republicans are plotting to equalize in Florida.

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— Hans Nichols and Kavya Beheraj

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries tore into Trump today after his Truth Social account posted a racist video of the Obamas, saying in a clip posted to social media:

• "F*** Donald Trump and his vile, racist, malignant behavior. This guy is an unhinged bottom feeder."

Why it matters: It's a drastic escalation of the rhetoric between the House Democratic leader and the White House amid delicate negotiations on immigration enforcement.

• Trump and Jeffries clashed last autumn over AI-generated videos Trump posted of Jeffries wearing a sombrero.
• This time, however, Trump deleted a post that depicted Obama and former first lady Michelle Obama as apes after it drew harsh criticism from lawmakers in both parties.

What they're saying: "This disgusting video, posted by the so-called president, was done intentionally," Jeffries said in the clip, contradicting the White House's claim that it was an erroneous post by a staffer.

• The Obamas, Jeffries continued, represent "the best of this country."
• Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer also blasted Trump earlier in the day: "Racist. Vile. Abhorrent. This is dangerous and degrades our country — where are Senate Republicans?"

The bottom line: Jeffries called for Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Speaker Johnson and other Republicans to "denounce this serial fraudster who's sitting at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue pretending to be the president."

• Spokespeople for Thune, Johnson and the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

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— Andrew Solender

Progressives are feeling newly emboldened by the stronger-than-expected showing of the left-wing outsider in a New Jersey congressional primary.

Why it matters: There are dozens of House races like this across the country in which at least one left-wing insurgent is vying either to win an open seat or topple an establishment House Democratic incumbent.

• Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) said the New Jersey result "shows that the progressive wing ... is ascendant and consistent with the base of the party."

Driving the news: Yesterday's 13-candidate Democratic primary to replace now-Gov. Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District is in a dead heat between progressive organizer Analilia Mejia and former Rep. Tom Malinowski.

• Mejia leads Malinowski by 500 votes, 28.75% to 27.97%, with several thousand provisional and late mail-in ballots still to be counted as of today, according to AP.
• Mejia trailed many of her opponents in fundraising, bringing in just $420,000 compared to Malinowski's $1.2 million.
• The winner will advance to face the Republican primary winner on April 16.

The intrigue: AIPAC spent over $2 million against Malinowski — a mainstream Democrat who had the group's support in the past — for his willingness to condition aid to Israel.

• The group reportedly favored former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, who had support from parts of the Democratic Party establishment.
• Observers say that created an opening for Mejia, the most prominent progressive in the race, who was endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and the Progressive Caucus.

What we're hearing: A senior House Democrat, asked if members were freaking out about their own primaries after the shock result, told us, simply, "Yes."

• "I definitely think this points to progressive anti-establishment energy," acknowledged another House Democrat, a moderate in a swing district.
• That lawmaker argued that too many moderate candidates split votes and endorsements that and "if [the] establishment and money all got behind one candidate like what normally happens," Mejia may not have won.

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— Andrew Solender