Michigan will be ground zero for political ad spending this cycle, with a complicated Democratic Senate primary, a three-way governor's race and a trio of competitive House contests behind a projected $1 billion price tag.

• $10.4 billion is expected to be spent nationwide on political advertising in the 2026 election, according to a new analysis from Kinetiq Political Insights (KPI).

Why it matters: Crowded media markets in Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina will drive up costs for super PACs aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer — and for House leadership groups as well.

Zoom out: KPI's $10.4 billion estimate is broadly in line with a September projection from AdImpact, another firm that tracks political ad spending across TV and radio.

• KPI says total spending could range from $9 billion to $11.8 billion, depending on factors like redistricting.
• "With Virginia's redistricting measure looming and the House map shrinking by the week, record midterm spending is about to pour into the smallest battlefield in recent memory — and that makes anything possible," said Adam Wise, a strategic consultant for KPI.

Zoom in: Atlanta is expected to be the most expensive media market of the cycle, with about $591 million divided among the Senate race, an open governor's contest and at least two competitive House races.

• Total Georgia ad spending could approach $900 million.

Between the lines: Connected TV (streaming) is expected to capture more than 25% of total spending, or about $2.7 billion — a 122% increase from 2022.

• Broadcast TV is projected to account for 46.2% ($4.8 billion).
• Cable TV could fall to 11.3% ($1.2 billion).

Flashback: The 2022 midterms saw $8.9 billion in political ad spending, according to KPI.

• Ohio had the most expensive Senate race in 2024, with about $450 million in spending, according to OpenSecrets.

The bottom line: Some Democratic challengers are outraising their GOP counterparts in House and Senate races, but Republican-aligned super PACs and party committees are hoping to close the money gap.

• The GOP's Senate Leadership Fund and affiliated groups reported $166.4 million cash on hand at the start of April.
• Senate Majority PAC and Majority Forward, aligned with Schumer, reported $74.8 million cash on hand.

— Hans Nichols

Reps. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) and Cory Mills (R-Fla.) are next in line this week for the House's wave of expulsion votes.

Why it matters: The two Florida lawmakers could become the seventh and eighth members to ever be expelled from Congress.

• Cherfilus-McCormick was found guilty by the Ethics Committee on a litany of charges, most notably for funneling $5 million in COVID relief funds to her congressional campaign. She has denied wrongdoing.
• Mills faces allegations including financial misconduct, campaign finance violations and sexual misconduct, all of which he denies.
• Reps. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) and Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) resigned last week ahead of imminent expulsion votes over alleged sexual misconduct. Both denied the allegations.

Zoom in: Speaker Mike Johnson signaled support last week for Greg Steube's (R-Fla.) plan to introduce a resolution tomorrow to expel Cherfilus-McCormick — after the House Ethics Committee makes its disciplinary recommendations.

• Johnson declined to answer last week when pressed on whether Mills — still under investigation by the Ethics Committee — should go too.
• Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) introduced a resolution this evening to expel Mills at the same time as Cherfilus-McCormick. It could be months until the Ethics Committee releases findings on Mills.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is declining to stake out a position before Cherfilus-McCormick's sanctions hearing, telling reporters his caucus will meet afterward to discuss the matter.

• House Democrats will "proceed in a manner consistent with our approach to these types of ethics matters, which is to always ... follow the facts and apply the relevant law without fear or favor," he said.

Jeffries signaled he is not prepared to support a retaliatory expulsion measure against Mills before he receives full due process, telling reporters he is "waiting for the Ethics Committee to report out what's going on in terms of the investigation."

• He called for that investigation to be "expedited" so that "we can take up his fate on the House floor."

The bottom line: Expelling a member of Congress takes a two-thirds vote, a high bar in a narrowly divided House in which neither party is eager to lose seats.

• The vast majority of Republicans will vote to expel Cherfilus-McCormick.
• Mills' allies can argue he has not received due process, giving lawmakers grounds to sideline an expulsion vote.

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— Kate Santaliz and Andrew Solender