Swalwell scandal threatens cascade of House expulsion votes

• Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) announced plans to force a vote next week to expel Swalwell, who is facing allegations of sexual assault and sexual harassment, which he denies.
• Democrats plan to counter with a vote to expel Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), as Axios first reported.
• If those votes succeed — which may be a long-shot, given that expulsion requires a two-thirds majority in the House — votes to expel Reps. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) could follow, sources said.

What we're hearing: Lawmakers in both parties are exasperated with recent ethics and sex scandals, and some are privately entertaining the catharsis of a proverbial bloodletting.

• "People feel confident that the allegations against all four are credible," said one House Democrat, who added that many members "are frustrated ... by what feels like a bottleneck of scandals without any real accountability yet in any one."
• A second House Democrat said: "We want a full house cleaning. Get the garbage out of here. These jerks are destroying Congress, for the American people and for all of us who came here to do good work."
• These lawmakers, like others quoted in this story, spoke to Axios on the condition of anonymity to offer candid thoughts about sensitive internal dynamics.

"I'm interested," a senior House Democrat told Axios of the prospect of expelling all four accused members in one go.

• "I think there's an appetite to do it and just rip the Band-Aid off once," a fourth House Democrat said, though they said that is "probably hard to accomplish."
• "I would support it," Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) told Axios.
• Another House Republican said "it's wise way to go."

Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) said in a post on X that Swalwell should resign and that he would vote to expel both Swalwell and Gonzales.

• Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) went a step further, calling in a post on X for Swalwell, Gonzales and Cherfilus-McCormick to "resign immediately" or be expelled — though he stopped short of lumping in Mills.

State of play: Swalwell is facing allegations of rape, sexual assault and harassment from four women. He has denied the allegations, vowing to fight them even as support for his California gubernatorial campaign deteriorates.

• Gonzales admitted to an affair with a staffer who later died by suicide and is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee.
• Cherfilus-McCormick was found guilty by the Ethics Committee on a litany of charges, most notably that she funneled $5 million in Covid relief funds to her congressional campaign. She has denied wrongdoing.
• Mills is under investigation by the Ethics Committee on an array of allegations including financial misconduct, campaign finance violations and sexual misconduct, all of which he denies.

Yes, but: If House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) agree on one thing, it's allowing members to have what they see as sufficient due process before any punitive action is taken.

• Many rank-and-file House members are territorial about their prerogatives and terrified of the precedent it would set to expel someone on the basis of allegations that haven't been fully adjudicated — even when they are highly unsavory.
• "I don't want Congress to turn [into] the morality police," said a fifth House Democrat, who told Axios that "if you commit a crime and [are] found guilty, you shouldn't be there."

• A senior House Republican told Axios sarcastically: "While we're at it, let's cut Congress in half and I get to choose who stays."

Between the lines: Multiple lawmakers predicted an alternative to expulsion could be a bevy of half-measures, such as censure.

• "I think Eric may have tipped the scale and we may go back down the process of censuring. I think expelling is a whole [different] kettle of fish," a sixth House Democrat told Axios.
• "But," this lawmaker added, "people want some way to show they are outraged."
• "This Eric thing has stunned many," a seventh House Democrat said. "I have never seen people be so swift in condemning."

Flashback: House Republican leadership opposed an expulsion resolution targeting former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) in 2023 to protect their narrow majority, but that didn't stop it from passing anyway.

• Rank-and-file Republicans were so fed up with his all-encompassing scandals that 105 of them defied that edict and voted with Democrats to oust him.
• Santos, a serial liar who was indicted twice in under a year after his election, became only the sixth lawmaker in centuries of the U.S. House to face expulsion by colleagues.

Between the lines: This time, the political considerations are a less glaring factor. With two Republicans and two Democrats potentially ousted, there would be no net change in the balance of power in the House.

• "There's a symmetry to it, two dems and two republicans, all of whom have no support among their peers," an eighth House Democrat said.

The bottom line: To some lawmakers, censure simply isn't enough to address the severity of some of this alleged misconduct.

• "There was already strong feelings among many that [Cherfilus-McCormick] should have been out before we left for break," the first House Democrat said.
• "We aren't credible messengers against the administration when we hide behind rhetorical condemnation and perpetual process excuses."

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting.