House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries could get caught in the undertow of the very blue wave he hopes to ride into power this November as a growing number of Democratic candidates tell us they can't commit to backing his leadership.

Why it matters: It's a stark reversal from Jeffries' virtually untouchable standing in the Democratic Party just a few years ago — and a sign that his path to the speakership may be rockier than previously thought.

• Jeffries and his allies maintain they are not remotely worried about a mass defection, pointing out that — even in the minority — he has had to endure 20 speakers' ballots and hasn't lost a Democratic vote.
• 🦾 But this crop of freshmen may provide the first chink in that heretofore impenetrable armor. A bloc of viable candidates has made it clear that voting for Jeffries as speaker is not a given if the Democrats take the House.

🚨 State of play: We reported last fall that more than 80 Democratic House candidates were either noncommittal on backing Jeffries or outright opposed. It's only gotten worse for him since.

• Mai Vang, the leading progressive primary challenger to Rep. Doris Matsui (D-Calif.), previously said she would "support the person that my future colleagues elect as our leader."
• But in an unprompted statement last week, Vang told us Jeffries has "failed to mobilize meaningful opposition to Trump's illegal war," adding, "I cannot support this kind of leadership."

Zoom out: Retirement announcements and congressional map redrawings since October have spawned open primaries featuring more candidates who aren't sold on — or outright hostile to — Jeffries' leadership.

• "Most Democrats are agreed that he's been failing to meet the moment," said Adam Hamawy, a candidate in New Jersey's 12th District, saying he is "looking for someone that's going to stand up to the administration."
• Claire Valdez, a New York State Assembly member looking to succeed Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D-N.Y.), said in an interview that "there would need to be some conversations" when asked if she would support Jeffries.

The other side: A Jeffries spokesperson said they have "zero interest in a frivolous story from the same outlet that once sensationally claimed Leader Jeffries was going to face a serious primary."

• New York Assembly member Alex Bores, a candidate to succeed retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), said Jeffries is "doing a difficult, thankless job" and that he would support his leadership.

✅ Reality check: Even some House Democrats who have privately chafed against or questioned Jeffries' leadership have also told us they think his leadership post is secure and that nobody would dare to challenge him.

The bottom line: Depending on whether the Democrats win the House and by how many seats, these progressives' fates in their primaries could likely determine whether Jeffries waltzes to the speakership or faces a repeat of Kevin McCarthy's 15-ballot slog.

• ✍️ The first test comes tomorrow in Illinois, where each open primary has at least one candidate who has refused to commit to supporting Jeffries.
• Some, like Illinois' 9th District, have multiple Jeffries skeptics.

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— Andrew Solender

A political organization closely affiliated with Senate Majority Leader John Thune is launching a $10 million ad campaign that features a Maine father testifying to the effectiveness of Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), we have learned.

Why it matters: The GOP establishment wants to burnish Collins' image and improve her numbers while Democrats are locked in a divisive battle on who should challenge her.

• The new buy from One Nation will bring its investment in Maine to $17 million this cycle.

📺 Driving the news: The ad focuses on Collins' support for a federal diabetes program, with the father — Mark Ferguson of Poland, Maine — talking about how the five-term senator helped his family after their son's diagnosis.

• "Thank you, Senator Collins," Ferguson says.
• "Throughout her career, Sen. Susan Collins has been Maine's effective and independent voice in Washington, delivering results that help families like Mark Ferguson's," One Nation communications director Chris Gustafson said.

The intrigue: The ad marks the first time One Nation has featured a first-person testimonial from an actual voter, and could signal a stylistic shift for the Thune-aligned organization.

🔎 Zoom in: Democrats have been working to weaken Collins — who is running for her sixth term — since the summer.

• Last month, a group associated with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer launched a $2 million attack on Collins over her votes to fund ICE.
• 🥊 But Collins is well-positioned to fight back. She started the year with $8 million in her campaign account and has at least three outside groups or super PACs spending on her behalf.

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— Hans Nichols

President Trump said he helped facilitate medical care for Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Fla.) after learning of Dunn's terminal diagnosis in part because he "needed his vote."

• "I did it for him first and for the vote second, but it was a close second, actually," Trump said today.

Catch up quick: Trump revealed Dunn had been given a terminal diagnosis and would have been "dead by June" due to a heart problem, before the president intervened in his medical care.

• "OK, that wasn't public," House Speaker Mike Johnson, sitting next to the president at a White House event, replied.
• Dunn's current health status is unclear. Trump said the medical care included a lengthy surgery; Johnson said it had given Dunn a "new lease on life."
• The comments created an awkward moment and sowed confusion about Dunn's health. His office did not reply to a request for comment.

The big picture: Johnson and Trump discussed how the speaker is working with one of the narrowest majorities ever and can only afford to lose two of his members on party-line votes.

• The exact nature of Dunn's health problem and his treatment have not been publicly disclosed.

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— Kate Santaliz