Axios Hill Leaders

July 29, 2026
Welcome to the second half of the week. Tonight's edition is 837 words, 3 minutes.
- ❌ Thune says no
- 💰 Scoop: Crypto cash infusion
🚨 Exclusive: Tech billionaire Elon Musk is jumping into the midterms with a huge investment in a plan to boost Republican voter turnout, Axios' Alex Isenstadt reports.
- Musk is resuscitating his dormant super PAC, America PAC, at a time when GOP control of the House, and perhaps the Senate, is in jeopardy in the Nov. 3 elections.
1 big thing: ❌ Thune says no
Senate Majority Leader John Thune repeated to White House officials in private what he's been saying in public for weeks: We don't have the votes.
Why it matters: President Trump isn't buying it — and he's questioning whether Thune is the man for the job.
- "Well, we're gonna find out," Trump said today. "I'll let you know."
- ‼️ Asked this evening about Trump saying the votes were gettable, Thune told reporters, "That must be a different form of math."
Driving the news: Hours earlier, two of Trump's top aides met with Senate Republicans at their weekly lunch to press them to pass a three-part budget reconciliation bill before leaving town, we scooped earlier today.
- The goal is to move a House budget resolution to "pay our troops, help our farms and secure our elections," a White House official told us.
- The White House is also floating a separate reconciliation package (a fourth) to raise the debt ceiling during the lame-duck session.
📢 What we're hearing: Many of Thune's members simply don't want to endure another vote-a-rama, the marathon amendment process that comes with every reconciliation bill.
- The White House wants Thune to expand the number of committees that receive reconciliation instructions.
- Many in Thune's conference want to expand the bill in a different direction — and plus-up the $67 billion in defense spending that cleared the House.
- "There's clearly an interest among certain members of our conference for a higher level of military and defense," Thune said today.
The intrigue: During the meeting, Republicans pointed out that the election-law changes envisioned in the House version of the SAVE Act — including more money for states to enforce voter ID and proof-of-citizenship requirements — wouldn't take effect in time to affect this November's elections.
🌎 Zoom out: The public clash comes at an awkward moment for Republicans: Fourteen weeks before the midterms, the White House and Senate GOP leadership are openly sparring over the president's agenda instead of selling it.
- Trump is trying to increase pressure on Thune, but the majority leader still enjoys broad support within his conference.
- Thune, when asked about Trump questioning whether he's the best person for the job, told reporters this evening: "Well, that's nice of him. I guess. I don't know, what do you say on that? That's a decision that's made by my colleagues."
- 🥊 Even as the two are at odds over reconciliation, Thune is planning to fly to Dallas to join Trump at the president's midterm political convention in September.
— Hans Nichols and Stef W. Kight
2. 💰 Scoop: Crypto cash infusion
Two crypto groups are launching $1.5 million in ad spending to boost GOP Senate candidates in Michigan and Iowa, we've learned.
Why it matters: It's a preview of what could be coming.
- 🗓️ With fewer than 100 days until the midterms, there's more than $125 million in crypto cash sitting on the sidelines.
- Fairshake, the industry's biggest super PAC, is staying neutral as negotiators make an eleventh-hour push to find the 60 votes necessary to pass a market-structure bill this summer.
- 😡 That is frustrating some GOP operatives, who think it's high time to put the CLARITY Act on the floor and force Democrats to go on the record.
🚗 Driving the news: Enter First Principles Digital.
- The new PAC is placing an $800,000 ad buy to bolster former Rep. Mike Rogers ahead of his Senate primary in Michigan next week, while a related organization, America First Digital, is spending another $750,000 in favor of Rep. Ashley Hinson in Iowa.
"Mike Rogers has spent his career doing the work," Jason Thielman, executive director of both FPD and AFD, said in a statement first provided to us. "Now he's ready to fight to lower the cost of living and protect the American Dream for Michigan families."
- 📺 The TV and cable ad will focus on the Detroit media market. Last cycle, crypto groups spent some $10 million against Rogers in favor of now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.)
- "Rep. Ashley Hinson has built a record of taking on tough challenges and delivering meaningful results for working Iowans," Thielman said in another statement.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has indicated there will be a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act before the Senate leaves town.
🤔 The intrigue: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), one of the key Democrats negotiating the CLARITY Act, also chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
- 🎯 If the crypto industry starts targeting her candidates, that could complicate — if not derail — negotiations over the bill.
— Stef W. Kight and Hans Nichols
This newsletter was edited by Kathleen Hunter and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.
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