HOUSTON — Companies are clamoring to understand White House tariff plans — trade measures they fear could raise costs and spur retaliation — but it's a moving target.

Why it matters: The thirst for political intel and guideposts on trade, sanctions, supply chains and other issues is making even wonkier sessions at CERAWeek by S&P Global huge draws.

• A panel with former U.S. national security adviser Tom Donilon and Ditte Juul Jørgensen, a top EU energy official, was so popular that many people were turned away from the huge ballroom.

State of play: Energy Secretary Chris Wright steered clear of trade in his conference-opening remarks.

• He also offered few specifics in a news conference. More broadly, it's not clear that Trump's energy team can give execs the clarity they seek or sway the White House.
• "Trump is kind of his own staffer on tariffs," a representative of a large multinational energy company, granted anonymity to speak freely, told me.

What they're saying: American Petroleum Institute President Mike Sommers told Axios the group is mostly in sync with the new administration so far.

• "By and large, they're with us on taxes, they're with us on regulations, and we're still working with them on trade," he said, praising the wider overall "energy dominance" agenda that "transcends" some trade concerns.

🗒️ A few more CERAWeek things in my notebook...

📢 International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol sought to make IEA's views on oil crystal-clear as IEA takes heat from some quarters of the industry and the right.

• Why it matters: "There is a need for oil and gas upstream investments, full stop," he said on a panel, citing the need to address the decline in existing fields. Birol revealed that IEA is doing a "major study" on the topic.
• Between the lines: The comments come as Republicans accuse IEA of morphing into a climate NGO and Trump officials weigh U.S. participation in multinational bodies.
• Catch up quick: IEA's analysis of hypothetical roadmaps to net zero, in various forms, say investment in new fields isn't needed. But Birol noted: "This is not the world we are in today."

🍻 If you wanted to create a CERAWeek drinking game, how about a sip whenever some iteration of "realism" or "pragmatism" comes up.

• Why it matters: The conference is heavy on a trend we've been writing about — the reset of the climate discussion as energy demand grows and emissions keep rising.

What we're watching: The global event is part of the Trump 2.0 squad's introduction less than two months into his term.

• Today Wright is slated to meet with Dan Jørgensen, the European commissioner for energy, Axios has learned.

The head of the upcoming UN Climate Summit in Brazil in November sent his first official letter to the world's governments outlining Brazil's vision for the talks.

Why it matters: COP30, which comes 10 years after the Paris climate agreement was adopted, will be a key test for global cooperation at a time of increasing divisions.

• The summit in Belém, Brazil, will also face growing doubts that the UN climate system is the best way to tackle the climate crisis in the wake of the U.S. exit from the agreement.

Zoom in: In the letter, COP30 president-designate André Corrêa do Lago calls on governments, multilateral development banks and the private sector to accelerate their climate finance commitments.

• He also wants them to demonstrate how they will meet the global $1.3 trillion annual goal set at COP29 in Azerbaijan.
• Notably, Corrêa do Lago commits to the COP28 goals, including the wording of "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems" that was not included in the agreement struck in Baku last year due to objections from Saudi Arabia.

In the letter, Brazil signaled that it will place an emphasis on the role of forests as carbon sinks. This is fitting for a summit to be held for the first time in the Amazon.

• "Forests can buy us time in climate action in our rapidly closing window of opportunity," Corrêa do Lago writes.

What we're watching: How many and which major polluters publish their next set of emissions-cutting goals in the runup to COP30, and how ambitious these targets are.

NASA has cut its office of the chief scientist and its Office of Science, Policy, and Strategy, among other entities, the agency said in an internal email that Axios has viewed.

Why it matters: Eliminating these offices comes ahead of potentially deep cuts to the agency's science programs.

• Katherine Calvin, a climate scientist, had the role of chief scientist. Calvin has also held the dual title of NASA's senior climate adviser.

The latest move fuels questions about the fate of NASA science programs, from planetary missions to its Earth science work studying human-caused climate change.

Zoom in: In the email, Acting NASA Administrator Janet Petro said the cuts were part of a "phased" reduction in force, or RIF.

• The reduction came in response to instructions from President Trump's executive orders and in conjunction with the Office of Personnel Management and Office of Management and Budget, Petro said.
• Another office cut is the Office of Diversity, Equity, Inclusion and Accessibility branch of the agency's Office of Diversity and Equal Opportunity.

The intrigue: The NASA office of the chief scientist is responsible for providing "independent assessment and advice to the Administrator on matters related to NASA science," and leads the development of the agency's science strategy.

• Cutting the Office of Science, Policy, and Strategy also means NASA's chief technologist and chief economist were affected.

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⚔️ Battle lines over IRA tax credits are coming into sharper relief. American Petroleum Institute head Mike Sommers tells me the powerful group is looking to preserve three credits — carbon capture, hydrogen, and green jet fuels.

• State of play: "We'll do everything we can to defend those provisions as we get into the debate on reconciliation," he said in an interview at CERAWeek.
• What we're watching: Twenty-one House Republicans told the chamber's tax committee that nixing the wider basket of climate law credits could mean "drastically higher power bills for American families."

⚖️ The Supreme Court is thwarting, for now, GOP state attorneys general efforts to block blue states' climate litigation against oil companies.

• What we're watching: It's unlikely the conservative-led court's last word on cases nationwide looking to hold the industry liable for damages.
• What they're saying: "It appears that the Court remains inclined to let state courts adjudicate these cases on the merits first, including whether federal preemption applies," ClearView Energy Partners said in a note. AP has more.

🔐 Via Bloomberg, "The US is eyeing emergency authority to bring back coal-fired plants that have closed and stop others from shutting, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said Monday."

That's how much U.S. data center electricity demand growth that new geothermal projects could meet by the early 2030s, per new Rhodium Group analysis.

• "Geothermal power is uniquely well-positioned for behind-the-meter applications due to its clean, firm nature and low surface land requirements," they find.

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