COP29 climate deal shows global talks under pressure

Yes, but: The talks made it glaringly obvious how domestically hamstrung developed countries are when it comes to ponying up cash for climate assistance.

• It also unexpectedly spotlighted how resistant some major fossil fuel-producing nations are to even reiterating agreed-upon goals to move away from these energy sources.

By the numbers: Many countries view the new, "at least" $300 billion a year goal by 2035 for developed country climate finance as preferable to no deal at all.

• The $300 billion figure replaces the previous climate finance goal of $100 billion a year by 2020. (This was not reached until 2022.)
• Even industrialized nations such as Germany acknowledged that the $300 billion target is inadequate given the scale of the challenge, which will require at least $1.3 trillion a year to help countries withstand climate change impacts and help them decarbonize.
• Political realities at home, from inflation to the rise of populism and impending second term for President-elect Donald Trump, crimped countries' checkbooks.
• The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East added to the geopolitical headwinds facing participants at the summit.

The intrigue: Least developed countries and small island developing states showed a willingness to use their moral authority as front-line nations most threatened by climate impacts to extract concessions.

• These countries temporarily walked out of the negotiations on Saturday, frustrated that their concerns were not being reflected in draft text.
• In the end, the final agreement includes provisions to identify steps for scaling up climate finance to the voluntary, all-in target of $1.3 trillion per year by 2035.
• This would include a climate finance report to be submitted next year.
• But the pact doesn't include a percentage of climate finance that would be set aside for these countries.

What they're saying: "Despite the barriers, we've fought hard and secured something for our communities," said Tina Stege, climate envoy for the Marshall Islands, in a statement.

• "We are leaving with a small portion of the funding climate-vulnerable countries urgently need."

Friction point: Anger over the COP process hit new heights in Baku.

• What happened right after the agreement was gaveled through in the wee hours of Sunday morning Baku time is a warning sign for future COPs.
• One developing nation after another blasted the text, criticizing the hasty approval of it before countries could speak either for or against it.
• "India does not accept the goal proposal in its current form," said Indian climate delegate Chandni Raina. "This document is nothing more than an optical illusion," she said to cheers and applause in the room.

• The risk from the rocky conclusion to the summit, and the difficult talks overall, is that countries left Baku more divided than when they began the negotiations more than two weeks ago.

"This agreement has deepened the sharp divisions between developed and developing countries within the UNFCCC," said Debbie Hillier of Mercy Corps, using the acronym for the UN climate forum, in a statement.

What's inside: Two items from the Baku talks are getting less attention.

• First, an important new pact on carbon markets was also agreed to.
• It allows new carbon markets, in which countries as well as companies could trade carbon credits, to begin functioning, establishing the ground rules for such trades.

Second, a separate package on steps to take in the wake of the COP28 agreement that called for "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems" was not agreed to after Saudi Arabia and other countries blocked any inclusion of the transition away language.

• This illustrates that to some countries, even restating vague, nonbinding language about relying less on fossil fuels is being perceived as a threat. That suggests more heated clashes to come at future COPs, starting at COP30.

What's next: The agreement struck at COP29 puts more pressure on Brazil, the host of COP30 next year, to have nations commit to more stringent emissions cuts.

• Raising more climate finance is also likely to be on the agenda.