DOGE is poised to upend the critical U.S. climate and weather agency in a way that goes even beyond the staff cuts imposed last week.

Why it matters: This involves canceling leases to critical weather forecasting facilities, with one of the buildings serving as the nerve center for generating national weather forecasts.

• It was designed to integrate multiple forecasting centers in one building to improve operating efficiency.

Driving the news: The NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in College Park, Md., is on the lease cancellation list, according to a NOAA employee who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution.

• Two ex-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials also confirmed the list.
• The building houses the National Weather Service's National Centers for Environmental Prediction, or NCEP, which includes the Environmental Modeling Center. It opened in 2012 and has about 268,000 square feet of space.

Zoom in: The modeling center runs the computer models used in day-to-day weather forecasting, and it ensures that accurate data goes into these models and that they are operating correctly.

• The NOAA employee told Axios the cancellations — along with recent layoffs, early retirements, and travel and hiring limitations — point to an effort to dismantle the agency.
• In response to the developments at NOAA and elsewhere, the American Meteorological Society issued a statement yesterday urging "extreme caution in altering federal roles and responsibilities" for weather forecasting.

Between the lines: Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been working through the General Services Administration to cancel government leases of office space.

• The NOAA employee told Axios a nightmare scenario could unfold if the College Park building was shuttered, but the agency still was tasked with the same missions as at present.
• In that case, NOAA would have to somehow replicate its functionality somewhere else in a process that could take a year or more and leave critical forecasting gaps.

The intrigue: The cancellation notice for the College Park facility isn't final, as a spreadsheet detailing all properties on the cancellation list has an end date of "TBD" for that building, according to the NOAA staff member.

• Another building on the list, which came to NOAA by way of GSA, has an end date of Sept. 30, 2025.
• That facility in Norman, Okla., is the Radar Operations Center, a centralized hub for technicians and researchers to work on improving and repairing the nation's aging fleet of Doppler weather radars.

What they're saying: Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) said he hadn't heard anything final about NOAA buildings in Maryland. "I am worried," he told Axios.

What's next: NOAA has been told to plan for even deeper cuts.

President Trump's prints could be on OPEC+'s decision yesterday to start adding barrels next month after repeatedly delaying production hikes.

Why it matters: Oil prices fell to 2025 lows after OPEC+ said eight members would slowly start unwinding 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary curbs.

• The OPEC+ move comes even though global demand growth remains tepid. Trump's tariffs — which are adding downward pressure on prices — could lower it more.

The intrigue: Trump has called for Saudi Arabia — which leads OPEC+ with Russia — and OPEC more broadly to lower prices.

• Yesterday's decision "does not seem to be in response to stronger-than-expected demand for their barrels, but rather in response to increasing political pressure, especially from the Trump administration," Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh said in a note.

What they're saying: RBC Capital Markets analysts thought OPEC+ might wait until later in the year.

• But the rather small increase in April (roughly 140,000 daily barrels) combined with Trump's pressure may have tipped the balance, RBC's Helima Croft writes in a note.

"Russia would seem to be especially incentivized to appear supportive of an incremental increase, given the looming prospect of US sanctions relief," she writes.

• ClearView Energy Partners is somewhat skeptical about Trump's effect. But the firm said OPEC+ may have seen "potentially challenging optics" in a fourth delay, "especially in the wake of Trump's request."

Catch up quick: Yesterday OPEC+ argued there are "healthy market fundamentals" and a "positive market outlook."

• It will be "adaptable to evolving conditions" and could pause or reverse additions.

What we're watching: Lots of market crosscurrents affecting prices — new tariffs, the Russia-Ukraine trajectory, U.S. efforts to curb Iran's oil exports, and more.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, in a statement after the OPEC+ move, said Trump is lowering costs by "unleashing affordable, abundant, and reliable American energy."

• But the U.S. "welcomes energy producers around the world aligning themselves with this administration's efforts to lower costs with increased energy production," he said.

Yes, but: Market watchers don't see U.S. oil production growing rapidly from already record levels anytime soon, especially if prices drop.

🛠️ A big green group wants judges to pry loose info about EPA's advice to President Trump on the scientific finding that legally underpins climate rules.

• Why it matters: EPA boss Lee Zeldin reportedly wants to scuttle the 2009 "endangerment finding" that greenhouse gases endanger humans. But EPA and the White House have not confirmed or revealed documents.
• What we're watching: Whether the Environmental Defense Fund's lawsuit that alleges FOIA violations will shake loose any paper.

⚖️ Oil, mining and business groups are challenging New York state's new law that demands billions of dollars from fossil energy companies to fund adaptation and infrastructure.

• Why it matters: "Climate superfund" laws are now a major front in state-level climate policy. The New York effort follows a Vermont statute, and other states are weighing similar plans.
• State of play: The American Petroleum Institute, National Mining Association and U.S. Chamber filed suit in a Manhattan federal court. They allege the law violates the commerce, takings and other clauses of the U.S. constitution.

⚔️ An environmental group is asking federal judges to halt the DOGE march through federal agencies for a specific reason: they allege it violates the Federal Advisory Committee Act.

• State of play: The Center for Biological Diversity filed a federal lawsuit against agencies including Interior, EPA, Commerce and USDA. The White House did not provide comment.

Nearly half of U.S. households with heat pumps have a secondary heat system too, new analysis shows.

Why it matters: It slightly clouds our window into the climate benefits of heat pumps. Backup heating also matters for grid reliability, local pollution, and household costs, writes UC-Berkeley business prof Lucas Davis.

State of play: 20% of heat pump owners use their secondary system only when it's very cold, while 8% use it constantly and 6% at least weekly, self-reported consumer data shows.

The bottom line: "Decarbonization studies typically completely ignore backup heating," Davis writes. "U.S. backup heating is enough to matter from a carbon emissions perspective."

💼 BP will add two new directors, with one focused on oil and gas as the super-major pivots back toward fossil fuels, the FT reports. BP did not immediately provide comment this morning.

• Catch up quick: At Shell, Integrated Gas and Upstream Director Zoë Yujnovich is stepping down. Cederic Cremers will head integrated gas and Peter Costello will lead upstream. Reuters has more.

🤝 UAE state oil giant Adnoc and Austrian multinational OMV are combining forces to create a new, $60 billion petrochemicals heavyweight, they announced today.

• Why it matters: Adnoc "sees demand for chemical products such as plastics continuing to expand even as climate change risks slow the growth of other fuels such as gasoline," Bloomberg notes.

That's the record (by a smidge) volume of offshore wind capacity slated for installation this year — but the U.S. isn't contributing, per Rystad Energy.

Why it matters: There's a "rebound" after the recent slowdown, and they see $80 billion worth of spending in 2025.

• Mainland China accounts for 65% share of new additions. The U.K. is next at 13% and Germany follows with 9%. Full analysis.