Major storm to test newly depleted Weather Service
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Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
A significant storm system that threatens the South, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic with severe weather — and heavy snow in the Midwest — is set to hit less than a week after NOAA saw layoffs that affected about 800 staff.
Why it matters: This will be the first test of whether the loss of expertise from the cuts and early retirements last week will affect forecast and warning accuracy.
Threat level: Lawmakers and meteorologists inside and outside of NOAA have warned that the cuts could compromise public safety and potentially lead to fatalities from extreme weather events.
- The staff reductions came as climate change is making certain types of extreme weather events, such as heat waves and heavy precipitation events, more frequent and intense.
The big picture: Computer model guidance shows the potential for a significant severe thunderstorm outbreak featuring strong, damaging winds and tornadoes across the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday.
- A level 3 out of 5 "enhanced risk" zone covers the lower Mississippi Valley, while a Level 2 risk covers a far broader area, from Memphis to New Orleans. Strong thunderstorms may hit New Orleans during Mardi Gras.
- As the potent area of low pressure tracks across the Midwest and Great Lakes, blizzard conditions are possible across the Plains states on Monday and Tuesday.
- Strong winds and heavy rains will hit the Southeast and East Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
- Flight delays and widespread power outages are possible with this storm.
Zoom in: About a dozen forecast offices in NWS' Central Region, which stretches from Wyoming to Michigan, lost their meteorologist-in-charge to retirement last week, according to NOAA sources speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution.
- These are typically the most experienced meteorologists at a local forecast office. The Eastern Region also saw about five meteorologists-in-charge leave, one source said.
- Some offices have also been left with diminished technical repair capacity if a Doppler radar or other critical equipment breaks down. Such radars are used for detecting tornadoes, among other public safety functions.
In addition, the office responsible for updating and maintaining the country's top weather models, known as the Environmental Modeling Center, lost about one-third of its staff.
- The EMC is a strategic nerve center for forecasting the weather nationwide and globally.
- Model outages or glitches that result from a diminished staff could reduce forecast accuracy.
The three-person NOAA external affairs team, responsible for communicating the agency's missions and accomplishments to the public, was laid off.
The intrigue: The layoffs focused on so-called "probationary" staff who had less than one or two years on the job.
- This also swept up senior-level employees who had recently transitioned into new roles.
- The layoffs of probationary employees that began Thursday hit soon after cuts at the behest of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) occurred at other climate and environment agencies, with further reductions to come.
What they're saying: In a statement to Axios after the layoffs, a NOAA spokesperson said the agency remains dedicated to its mission of protecting life and property.
- "We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission," they said.
What we're watching: How successfully a post-cuts NWS is able to accurately track and warn of a major storm affecting multiple states with diminished ranks of experts.
