Climate change strengthened the maximum wind speeds of Atlantic hurricanes by an average of 18 mph during the past five years, a new study published today shows.

Why it matters: The study is among the first to show a link between hotter ocean temperatures and stronger hurricane wind speeds. It ties climate change to a hurricane's destructive potential.

• Previous research mainly focused on how climate change is causing hurricanes to produce more precipitation and alter their movement in some areas.

Zoom in: A storm can cause far more damage with each successive category it achieves on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as the scale isn't linear but rather logarithmic.

• The research, led by Daniel Gilford of the nonprofit research group Climate Central, found that 30 hurricanes in the study reached intensities that were about one category higher than they otherwise would have been.
• The study found three hurricanes that reached Category 5 intensity largely because of climate change: Hurricane Lorenzo in 2019, Ian in 2022 and Lee in 2023.
• According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a storm's destructive power increases to the eighth power with each storm category increase.

For example, a hurricane that reaches high-end Category 2 intensity, with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, would have a damage potential that is 21 times greater than that of a 75 mph Category 1 storm, according to NOAA.

The intrigue: In addition to the peer-reviewed study, an accompanying analysis using the same methods found that climate change boosted the maximum sustained winds of the 11 hurricanes that formed this season by between 9 and 28 mph.

• This included the devastating Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which saw an increase in their maximum intensities by 16 mph and 23 mph, respectively.

What they're saying: "Every hurricane in 2024 was stronger than it would have been 100 years ago," Gilford said in a statement.

Yes, but: Meteorologist Kerry Emanuel, who invented the metric of maximum potential intensity and has studied it intensively, told Axios he would be more cautious about attributing so much of the temperature increase in the North Atlantic Basin to human-driven climate change.

• He noted, as does the study, that other factors at work on a regional level — such as declining air pollution from North America — may be partly or largely to blame for the trends found.
• In an email to Axios, he cautioned against pinning most of the explanation on increasing greenhouse gases, saying they "may have played a minor role."

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Donald Trump's choice of investment exec Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary has real stakes for climate science, oil companies, clean tech and beyond.

A few things to look for from Lutnick...

💵 Tariffs. Lutnick shares Trump's zest for bigger trade penalties, and Trump's announcement says he'll lead the tariff and trade agenda.

• But the oil industry doesn't like trade wars — it wants robust global markets for LNG and other products.
• And higher tariffs can raise domestic project costs if they hit steel and other goods.

☀️ Don't forget solar tariffs. Watch Lutnick's posture on penalties against Chinese-linked solar equipment from Southeast Asia as Commerce weighs new duties.

🌎 Climate science. One of the department's biggest components is NOAA, which houses the National Weather Service along with climate research and fisheries programs.

• Project 2025 proposed largely breaking NOAA up and ending its climate research, though it's unclear where Lutnick stands on that. The agency has bipartisan support on Capitol Hill.
• "I hope he has the courage to stand up to President Trump's worst impulses and protect vital climate and oceans organizations like NOAA," Andrew Wetzler, NRDC's senior vice president for nature, said in a statement.

⚡ Energy and tech. The Commerce Department is a consulting agency for Interior Department permitting of offshore wind projects.

• Commerce has authority over potential effects on marine animals. A reminder that Trump despises offshore wind.
• Elsewhere, Commerce leads trade missions to expand foreign markets for U.S. tech. In the past that has included clean tech.

What's next: Lutnick's views on energy policy specifics and climate are not well known. His Senate confirmation hearing could bring them to light.

⚡Energy analyst and data wiz Hannah Ritchie has a typically lucid post on data centers' AI-driven power needs.

Why it matters: It's a hedged case against the hype, while noting big uncertainties. "Even five years is starting to get highly speculative," Ritchie writes.

• Yes, but: Data centers tend to be clustered, so "there can be severe strain on the grid at a highly localised level, even if the impact on total energy demand is small."
• The bottom line: Demand growth will be "possibly less than many assume," but she also calls for more transparency from tech companies.

⛏️The U.S. government should create a "Bureau of Mines" to help centralize and speed permitting for critical minerals mining, a new report argues.

• The big picture: It's among seven major ideas in a new Center for Strategic and International Studies look at how to boost mineral security.
• What we're watching: Other ideas include making it easier for the U.S. Development Finance Corp. to take equity stakes in projects abroad, and adding copper to the Interior Department's critical minerals list.

Meta is planning to build a multibillion-dollar data center in northern Louisiana, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Louisiana has emerged as an attractive area for data center campuses as Big Tech searches for new regions outside of energy-constrained hubs.

Zoom in: The project, dubbed "Project Sucre," is proposed to sit on 2,250 agricultural acres in Richland Parish, about 125 miles east of Shreveport, according to state filings.

• The filings list Laidley, LLC as the company coordinating the project.
• A source with direct knowledge of the matter said Laidley is a business entity associated with Meta, which will operate the center.

The big picture: Capital investment into the data center campus could be between $5 billion and over $10 billion, per a term sheet between Laidley and the Northwest Louisiana Finance Authority.

How it works: A data center project of that size requires substantial power to run it. Evidence of additional grid capacity coming to the project site appeared in a filing last month.

• Entergy, the energy company that serves 3 million customers across the region, filed an application through its Louisiana affiliate to build 2.23 GW of natural gas capacity to serve what it calls a "significant" customer. Entergy does not name the customer in the filing.

Full story, and talk to our sales team about the must-read Axios Pro: Climate Deals, where this news first appeared.

Exxon just announced a non-binding deal to supply battery heavyweight LG Chem with up to 100,000 tons of lithium for its cathode plant slated to open in Tennessee.

Why it matters: It's the second agreement Exxon has revealed from its new lithium business, which aims to extract the metal from brines in Arkansas.

What we're watching: The deal proceeding rests on variables like "competitive regulatory frameworks," Exxon said. Per Reuters, Arkansas officials are still weighing royalty rates.

"People are so focused right now on what might change, they're not looking at what's the same: good investments are still good investments."

That's from her chat about the post-election landscape with Axios Pro's Alan Neuhauser.

Talk to our sales team about Axios Pro: Climate Deals for a steady diet of scoops and smart analysis.