Global renewable power generation — real output, not just capacity! — should pass coal in 2025, the International Energy Agency's new outlook finds.

Why it matters: It's testament to the rapid rise (see above), led by solar, that could see renewables provide nearly half of global power generation by 2030.

• IEA sees the world getting rather close to tripling capacity by 2030, a goal set at last year's UN climate summit, but falling short without stronger policies.

🖼️ The big picture: The agency projects another 5,500 gigawatts of capacity arriving by 2030, with annual growth by then that's 70% faster than last year's record pace.

• Nearly all that rise comes from solar and wind, the agency said, citing their economic attractiveness.

Reality check: Growth is uneven and largely centered in China, which IEA sees accounting for 60% of global capacity expansion by decade's end.

• The COP28 tripling goal is "within reach" but demands knocking down barriers — like inadequate transmission — to grid integration.
• The report cites risks of increased "curtailment," or wasted generation.

🧮 Stunning stats: The outlook is glum on "green" hydrogen, calling it a "negligible" driver of renewables growth through 2030.

• They see hydrogen driving just 1% of renewable capacity expansion.
• Hydrogen produced with renewables is forecast to reach only 4% of the world's total in 2030.

What's next: IEA wants "bold" new renewables provisions in nations' next emissions pledges under the Paris Agreement, which are due in early 2025.

• Its statement alongside the data also urges more international cooperation to cut financing costs in developing nations, which are holding back growth.

Menacing Hurricane Milton underwent not one but two periods of rapid intensification on its way toward a potentially devastating landfall in Florida.

Why it matters: It is extremely rare that a storm twice makes the top 5 list of most intense Atlantic hurricanes on record, as measured by surface air pressure, with winds also reaching the high end of the intensity spectrum.

• This has increased its destructive potential, particularly when it comes to storm surge flooding and damaging winds.

Zoom in: Both periods of intensification can be tied to record-warm ocean temperatures associated with a marine heat wave and climate change, along with favorable conditions in the atmosphere.

What's next: Hurricane Milton will make its approach to western Florida through tonight, with forecasters and residents watching every wobble of the eye for signs of where the worst of the storm will come ashore.

💰 Long-duration storage player Form Energy raised $405 million in Series F money led by T. Rowe Price, with GE Vernova, TPG Rise Climate and others taking part.

• Why it matters: Storage helps enable high levels of renewables on power grids and also has industrial uses. Form says its "iron air" tech is lower cost than lithium-based systems, and pairs well with them, too.

🤝 Mining giant Rio Tinto is buying U.S.-based multinational Arcadium Lithium in a $6.7 billion cash deal.

• Why it matters: While prices have been depressed, lithium for EVs and stationary storage batteries is key for the energy transition.
• State of play: Rio Tinto this morning called it a "counter-cyclical expansion."

🙅 CEOs of Bank of America, BlackRock and other titans are sitting out COP29 in Azerbaijan despite its emphasis on finance, the Financial Times reports.

• State of play: "Finance executives cited 'difficult logistics' and fewer client networking opportunities than at COP28 in Dubai last year," the paper reports.

🛻 Via Bloomberg, General Motors "hinted that it's developing a lower-cost electric pickup truck that could boast a 350-mile range."

The latest oil price spike from Mideast risks went into reverse yesterday thanks partly to a familiar culprit: China's economy.

Why it matters: The world's largest oil importer is often the straw that stirs the barrel.

• Weak Chinese economic signals and oil demand growth have been a check on crude prices for months.

🗞️ Driving the news: That resurfaced yesterday as analysts pointed to Beijing's decision not to unveil major new stimulus.

• "The disappointment — for traders expecting to see new fiscal spending — is what has tamped down on most commodity prices today, such as crude oil, iron ore, and copper," Macquarie strategist Vikas Dwivedi said in a note yesterday.
• The global benchmark Brent crude slid over 4%, or roughly $3.50, to the mid-$77 per barrel range yesterday. But a geopolitical risk premium remains in the price.

Yes, but: Never a dull moment! Beijing today said it will make fresh fiscal policy announcements on Saturday.

Catch up quick: Prices started rising late last week on speculation that Israel might strike Iranian oil infrastructure in response to Iran's Oct. 1 missile attack.

• Brent climbed over $81 Monday, the highest since mid-August.

The big picture: Lots of forces — economic, weather-related, and geopolitical — move oil prices day to day.

• One analyst said the lack of an Israeli strike thus far on Iranian oil sites, which President Biden has discouraged, helped cool the market.
• "Oil can keep ascending only for so long, purely based on perceptions and not actual supply disruption," PVM analyst Tamas Varga said in a note, per CNBC.

💡 A "small pivot" from Kamala Harris on President Biden's tariffs could bring consumer gains without sacrificing climate benefits, two scholars with Columbia University's energy think tank argue.

• Why it matters: Their new post adds to a growing pile of advice for Harris as her potential presidency draws closer. It also comes as the White House is struggling to reconcile climate and industrial policy goals.
• Driving the news: Noah Kaufman's and Lilly Yejin Lee's three ideas include creating phase-out schedules for "climate-related" tariffs like EV penalties.
• The big picture: "Making tariffs temporary would provide a strong incentive for innovation, as domestic industries would need to rapidly become competitive in global markets to survive," they write. Full post.

🔮 A big, long-term energy outlook from advisory and risk management firm DNV is the latest projection to merge hopeful and sobering signs.

• Driving the news: Their latest annual energy transition outlook sees a likely global emissions peak this year.
• Yes, but: It's the decline slope that matters, and DNV says it won't be enough to meet Paris Agreement targets. But that said, it's not as far off as some projections.
• What's next: Their "most likely" transition pathway sees temps rising 2.2°C above preindustrial levels by 2100. The report tallies uneven progress across sectors, with solar thriving but hydrogen seeing a downward revision in their projected growth. Full report.

"At the end of the day, the industry is driven by market fundamentals, not by politics."