Axios Generate

December 01, 2023
🍺 Friday, we're in love with you. This newsletter has a Smart Brevity count of 1,185 words, 4.5 minutes.
👀 Axios will have great events at COP28, including interviews with Al Gore, Microsoft sustainability boss Melanie Nakagawa & more. Full agenda and registration.
🎶 RIP to Pogues frontman Shane MacGowan, whose talent lives on through today's intro tune...
1 big thing: U.S. plans to freeze China out of EV subsidies
Illustration: Tiffany Herring/Axios
Breaking: electric vehicles made with minerals and materials produced in China won't qualify for the climate law's consumer EV tax credit in the future, the Biden administration said Friday morning.
Why it matters: The proposed criteria will give EV manufacturers clarity they lacked for more than a year, Axios Pro Policy's Jael Holzman writes.
- It also provides fresh urgency on how companies should build new supply chains to get battery parts and key minerals from outside of China.
The big picture: It'll be a tall order for carmakers to reshuffle production, or build the new mines, plants and factories they'll need fast enough to have cars to qualify before the credit expires.
- That means some cars that have qualified for the credit in the past year will lose it once the foreign sourcing requirements kick in.
Driving the news: The Treasury and Energy Departments unveiled their proposal for determining whether an EV's battery is made with parts or raw resources inappropriately linked to a "foreign entity of concern," or FEOC.
- The 2022 climate law created a $7,500 credit that goes directly to Americans buying an EV. But the car can't be made with components or minerals substantially under the control of an FEOC.
- It's a wonky term that national security officials use to reference adversarial nations, or companies and individuals connected to those governments.
Zoom in: Per the proposed criteria, minerals or materials from an entity incorporated in or performing the relevant industrial activities in an FEOC wouldn't be allowed in qualifying EVs.
- The same is true for minerals and materials from a company where a "foreign entity of concern" holds at least 25% voting interest or board seats, directly or indirectly.
- But minerals or materials can be used when they're produced in a business venture that includes a licensing agreement with an FEOC — if the deal is designed in certain ways.
State of play: Much of the mining, refining and component manufacturing for batteries takes place in China.
- No matter what U.S. officials want, that's not going to change anytime soon.
What we're watching: The 2024 election. Some in the conservative braintrust recently went deep with Axios Pro Policy on how a future Trump administration would change the EV credit.
2. A big new climate fund and more COP28 notes
Illustration: Gabriella Turrisi/Axios
💵 COP28 host UAE is pouring $30 billion into a new fund partially focused on climate-friendly energy and projects in emerging markets and developing nations, Ben writes.
- Why it matters: Those regions have rising demand and emissions, yet "traditional investment has been lacking due to the higher perceived risks," the fund rollout notes.
- The big picture: Officials say the UAE-housed fund, called Alterra, is "the world's largest private investment vehicle for climate change action," and hope it "mobilizes" $250 billion by 2030.
- State of play: COP28 head Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber chairs the fund's board. BlackRock and private equity firms TPG and Brookfield are inaugural partners. An initial $6.5B commitment includes funds for developing over 6 gigawatts of new "clean energy" capacity in India.
- What's next: The energy and climate tech fund and partners are "actively exploring" opportunities like a 5GW+ slate of African wind and solar projects.
- Zoom in: Alterra is two vehicles. The $25B "acceleration" fund will steer capital toward developed and emerging markets. The $5B "transformation" fund will provide risk mitigation finance to areas including least-developed nations and small island states.
- Our thought bubble: The fund is a major commitment to concessional finance, Andrew writes. But especially in the least developed countries where energy transition needs are most acute, the lack of a track record of UAE renewables funding, and the placement of a controversial COP chair atop the masthead, is likely to be met with considerable skepticism.
⚔️ Via Politico, "A global deal on ending the use of fossil fuels was mired in division as U.N. climate talks opened on Thursday in Dubai, with major polluters and the oil-rich host country signaling they weren't on board."
- Catch up fast: A big COP28 divide is about whether the summit should explicitly call for ending or at least cutting the use of all fossil fuels, and the role of carbon capture.
🚫 More than 100 countries signed a fossil fuel phaseout pledge led by the EU.
3. Exclusive: Heavy interest in Biden's "Climate Corps"
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
Even before formal applications open, over 2,500 young people have signaled interest in joining a major unit of the federal "American Climate Corps" (ACC) program, Ben writes.
Why it matters: The info shared with Axios is an early metric of the Biden administration's ability to transform its recently unveiled ACC into a meaningful initiative.
Driving the news: Applications open today for Forest Corps, a joint program between AmeriCorps and the U.S. Forest Service that officials call the first major new interagency program within the much wider ACC.
What's next: The first cohort of 18- to 26-year-olds is slated to begin work in the summer of 2024.
- Members will have jobs nationwide in forest and grassland conservation, wildfire risk mitigation and crisis response, reforestation and more.
- They'll receive a compensation package "equivalent to $15/hour and includes lodging, transportation, clothing, a living allowance, health benefits, and more."
Of note: The tally comes via preliminary signups through AmeriCorps' website, and officials say anyone interested is still encouraged to apply.
- "AmeriCorps and the U.S. Forest Service are invested in training the next generation of diverse conservation and climate resilience workers," AmeriCorps CEO Michael D. Smith said in a statement.
Catch up fast: The White House announced the New Deal-inspired ACC in September.
- It aims to bring youth into clean energy and climate resilience jobs — and create paths to future employment.
- The goal is to move 20,000 people through the program in the first year.
The bottom line: The bureaucratic gears are turning on this nascent effort.
4. 🤷 Why markets shrugged at the OPEC+ decision


OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced new cuts to oil production Thursday as the cartel seeks to prop up falling prices, Axios Markets' Matt Phillips writes.
Yes, but: The oil market shrugged off the announcement as benchmarks in the U.S. and worldwide fell.
5. Mapping the country's EV hotspots

Much of the country's electric vehicle use is concentrated in the "four corners" of California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northeast and the Southeast.
The intrigue: There are two glaring exceptions: Colorado and Hawai'i', Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick and Kavya Beheraj report.
How it works: The data, from mobility analytics platform Replica, is based on estimated EV miles traveled per 1,000 residents, at the county level, on a typical weekday in the second quarter of 2023.
The bottom line: The electric car revolution is happening — it's just unevenly distributed.
6. Quote of the day
"...In a brutal demonstration of the power of exponential growth, at this rate 45 million people would be present at COP38 in a decade's time and, left unchecked, we could be hurtling towards an arithmetical end-game in which the entire global population would attend COP46!"— David Oxley, Capital Economics' head of climate economics
That tongue-in-cheek line makes a real point as roughly 70,000 delegates — nearly double last year's tally — descend on Dubai, Ben writes.
- COP28 has mushroomed into sprawling mixtures of granular negotiations and World Economic Forum-style hobnobbing, with plenty in between.
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🙏 Thanks to Chris Speckhard and Javier David for edits to today's edition, along with the talented Axios Visuals team.


