Axios Future of Energy

September 03, 2026
🏔️ We're opening the edition with a dispatch from Alaska, then we're moving on to...
- Renewables growth and woes, Venezuela analysis, Tesla's big day and more, all in 1,299 words, 5 minutes.
🙏 Thanks to Mackenzie Weinger, David Nather and Chris Speckhard for editing and to our brilliant Axios visuals team.
🥂 Amy recently went all the way to Homer, Alaska, because of this song, so it provides today's intro tune.
1 big thing: Alaska seeks oil revival with a warming future
EXIT GLACIER, Alaska — America's 49th state is a vast study in contrasts: Rapidly melting glaciers like this one attract tourists, while the oil industry underpinning its economy is getting a fresh boost from Washington after decades of decline.
Why it matters: Few places put the causes and consequences of global warming in such proximity, making Alaska a vivid window into the world's reliance on fossil fuels as climate impacts mount.
Driving the news: "Alaska is a powerhouse," Energy Secretary Chris Wright said last week in Anchorage at the state oil and gas trade group's annual conference, according to Alaska News Source.
- "I think you could have an incredible several years, several decades coming with just some common sense policies to set Alaskans free."
State of play: Alaska has emerged as perhaps the Trump administration's biggest geographic focus for expanding U.S. oil and gas development, with the government pushing new leasing, easier permitting, Arctic drilling and a massive natural gas pipeline.
- A major new North Slope oil field started producing in May, and another is expected to begin producing in 2029.
- Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) told Axios this moment is a "second wind" for the state's oil industry.
Reality check: Alaska's heyday as a top oil powerhouse is likely behind it. Its oil production has been declining since the late 1980s, and projects underway aren't expected to restore anything close to that.
Friction point: Some of Washington's efforts are facing hurdles.
- The Interior Department's June lease sale in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, a vast wilderness home to polar bears, caribou and hundreds of bird species, generated little industry interest. A separate sale for new drilling in Cook Inlet near Anchorage received zero bids.
- An Interior Department spokesperson described the wildlife refuge auction as "a success for this frontier area," and pointed to a record-breaking March lease sale elsewhere in Alaska's North Slope.
Zoom in: The roughly $50 billion effort to pipe natural gas 800 miles from the North Slope to the Kenai Peninsula for export to Asian markets is struggling to move forward.
Inside the room: Or more aptly: next to the glacier. Signs along the hiking trail at Exit Glacier tell visitors how much this glacier has retreated dating back to the late 1880s; the most recent sign is from 2010.
- Its retreat has accelerated in recent decades due to human-caused warming, according to Albin Wells, who researches the topic at the University of Zurich.
What we're watching: With energy security demanding attention amid the ongoing Iran war, climate change may be on the back burner, said Jason Bordoff, founding director of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy, who recently visited Alaska's northernmost regions.
- "But it is going to come back in a nonlinear way because of the impacts we're seeing."
Share the full story — and check out a photo of Amy at Exit Glacier.
2. 🪟 A window into wind power's Trump woes


Onshore wind power's U.S. project pipeline shrank for the second consecutive quarter, per new data from the American Clean Power Association.
Why it matters: The trimmed sails reflect the Pentagon's holdup of permits for over 155 projects, the trade group said.
- That's among several Trump administration policies hitting the sector.
- The chart above shows projects under construction or in advanced development.
Catch up quick: The military has halted the once-routine sign-offs needed for Federal Aviation Administration permits.
- This change "obstructed early development projects" from ordering equipment and signing power sales deals, ACP said.
The big picture: The group's wider Q2 update on wind, solar and battery storage offers a more optimistic picture of those cleantech sectors.
- 17.1 gigawatts of projects came online in April-June, the strongest Q2 on record.
- Wind accounted for 5 of those, led by the 3.65 GW SunZia project.
- Looking ahead, solar and storage project pipelines kept climbing.
What we're watching: There's ongoing litigation over the Pentagon's policy.
3. 🧁 Bonus: Offshore wind's dwindling U.S. future


That's a snapshot ☝️ of a sector that's down amid Trump officials' resistance, but hardly out.
State of play: Four East Coast projects are under construction, and two of these have begun delivering power, ACP said.
- Another, Vineyard Wind 1, finished construction in Q1.
The bottom line: Offshore wind was troubled even before Trump 2.0 attacks due to interest rates, supply chain inflation and more.
- Now new plans are off the table, but some development is moving ahead.
4. 🏃 Catch up quick: Venezuela, Google, Kalshi
😮 Venezuela news and attempts to make sense of it are coming fast and furious.
- State of play: Oil giant Eni's deal to operate Junín 5 — a big oilfield on that today produces little — followed Chevron's $7 billion announcement.
- Catch up quick: Check out oil analyst Bachar EL-Halabi's X thread that blends summary and insight into private sector moves and the White House plan to control major fields.
- The bottom line: "Venezuela may be strategically important to future supply. It isn't a quick fix for today's market. That distinction matters given US gasoline prices and the November midterms," he writes.
🔋 Google's backing two new cleantech projects.
- Catch up quick: It's backing a West Virginia solar development that's paired with both short- and long-duration storage, partnering with developer Eos Energy and battery firm MN8 Energy. Go deeper.
- Driving the news: Separately, Google is funding a project with PG&E and the group Rewiring America, Sunrun and other partners to deploy a virtual power plant in California's Bay Area.
🛢️ Via Bloomberg, prediction market Kalshi wants regulatory approval to offer a kind of oil futures contract that would "bring a product popular in crypto markets into the traditional energy sphere."
- Yes, but: The story dives into the risks with these kinds of round-the-clock trades.
5. 💵 Why markets can't ignore the war anymore
Oil prices are heading back toward $100 a barrel, and, perhaps more crucially, the price of diesel fuel futures are at record highs.
Why it matters: Investors are starting to recognize that they can't keep ignoring higher oil prices from the Iran war.
The big picture: Higher energy prices are showing up across the economy, driving up costs for companies, regular people and even governments around the world that are now facing higher borrowing rates.
- The rising price is a big factor pushing bond yields higher and worrying policymakers in the U.S. and the rest of the developed world.
Catch up quick: After falling off initial early war highs, oil prices started rising in July.
- Tensions have intensified in recent days.
- Brent crude oil was trading at $95 per barrel yesterday afternoon, and it's up to around $96 this morning, up from the low $80s a month ago.
By the numbers: The yield on the 10-year Treasury — a benchmark for mortgages and other loans — was hovering at around 4.8% yesterday, after touching its highest level in nearly three years.
Follow the money: Government bond yields around the world are also at multiyear highs.
- Stocks are moving close to sideways over the past week.
6. 🚖 Big today: Tesla's Cybercab launch
Tesla will launch its long-awaited Cybercab service today in Austin, Texas, a bellwether for its vision of a purpose-built robotaxi with no steering wheel or pedals.
Why it matters: Cybercab will test whether Tesla can mass-produce — and legally deploy — a vehicle designed exclusively for autonomy.
Yes, but: It hasn't said how many Cybercabs will initially be available for ride-hailing; most industry watchers expect extremely few.
The bottom line: The launch will test whether its tech can catch up to robotaxi leader Waymo.
Go deeper via the Axios Future of Mobility newsletter
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