As millions of students prepare to start the school year virtually, experts fear they may fall off an educational cliff — missing key academic milestones, falling behind grade level and in some cases dropping out of the educational system altogether, Kim Hart and Alison Snyder report.

The economic impact could be staggering: McKinsey estimates the average K-12 student in the U.S. could lose $61,000 to $82,000 in lifetime earnings — or a year of full-time work — because of learning losses related to COVID-19.

• Losses are expected to be even greater for Black, Hispanic and low-income students, widening the existing achievement gaps by 15%-20%.
• Globally, a school shutdown of five months could cause learning losses amounting to $10 trillion, the World Bank estimates.

The spring school closures gave a sneak peek. A June NWEA study of "COVID slide" suggested students would return to school this fall with about 70% of the learning gains in reading compared to a typical school year.

• In math, students were likely to return with less than 50% of the previous school year's learning gains, and in some grades almost a whole year behind.

Gauging where students are academically when they resume classes will be a challenge. Educators are more focused on safety, food security and other pandemic-related trauma students are facing.

• "People aren't rushing to get a kid in front of a test, and I think that's probably a healthy thing," said Beth Tarasawa, executive vice president of research at NWEA, a nonprofit that creates academic assessments.

What's next: Some learning loss can be addressed with basic, tried-and-true strategies, such as one-on-one tutoring and small-group lessons, said Robin Lake, director of the Center on Reinventing Public Education.

• "What we know from research is that it matters how quickly educators address learning losses because they cascade and students disengage when they don't think they can do the work in front of them," Lake said.

Parents — juggling work and caring for families — already feel the pressure.

• "Now we have this continual conversation about how this is going to devastate our children," particularly children of color, said Keri Rodrigues, co-founder and president of the National Parents Union.
• "That puts everyone in the mindset that our children are broken. It is our job as the adult to push on and persevere to figure this out for them."

Go deeper:

• Axios Re:Cap podcast on the loss of learning
• Share this story

Schools are facing a shortage of laptops, particularly low-cost Chromebooks popular in K-8 schools, even as remote or hybrid reopening models mean they'll need more of them, Dan Primack reports.

Why it matters: No device = no education.

"Not even close," was the response from Gregg Prendergast, Acer America president, when asked whether there will be enough Chromebooks to satisfy remote learning needs when schools reopen.

• He adds that demand is "historic" and that just last week Acer received requests for hundreds of thousands of new devices from government officials in both California and Nevada.
• Best Buy's website shows 28 models of Chromebooks priced under $400. On Friday morning, 24 of those models were sold out.

Supply chain shortages and manufacturing slowdowns in China hit right around the same time demand began to surge in the spring. That's persisted.

• There's a shortage not just of finished products, but also components like screens, batteries and processors. And then there are shipping and port delays.
• Many schools in the spring relied on existing device supplies, loaning out older devices. That resulted in much more wear and tear, thus accelerating the upgrade/replacement cycle.

Go deeper: Axios Re:Cap podcast on the device drought

Parents expect to lean on family members to help babysit, tutor or tend to their children's needs this fall, according to a flash poll conducted for Axios by Ipsos last week, Kim writes.

By the numbers: 72% of the 310 parents surveyed in the Ipsos-run panel are expecting their children's education to be partly or fully virtual in the fall.

• About 13% said they plan to arrange for extra help, with 12% saying they have not yet decided, partly out of concern that they could not afford it.

What they're saying: Reliance on family members cuts across income brackets and race.

• "I have to rearrange my schedule, my spouse work schedule and planning with grandparents to assist when problems arise," said a Black working mom in Massachusetts with children ages 7 and 10. "The grandparents will help with babysitting only, and when one of the parents gets home, will focus on the learning aspects."
• "Kids spending the day with grandmother while we work," said an Asian working mom of kids ages 8 and 13 from Wisconsin.

Yes, but: One source of help may not be enough.

• Several said they intend to cobble together child care and learning coverage through a combination of spouses trading off, grandparents, friends and professional babysitting or tutoring services.

Pandemic learning pods — also called microschools or co-ops — are popular options for parents looking to fill in the academic and social gaps for children who will be learning virtually come fall, Marisa Fernandez reports.

• How it works: Parents pool resources to hire a teacher, tutor or child care professional to preside over a small cohort of students, direct their studies and provide general supervision so parents can work.

The catch: Pods are criticized for widening the racial and socioeconomic disparities that are already pervasive in education. And though keeping the groups small helps reduce the risk of exposure to COVID-19, ensuring the safety of a pod is still harder than it looks.

• If a family has kids of different ages participating in different pods, each one risks infecting the other. Every interaction with someone outside the pod can also affect the whole pod.
• The responsibility of cleaning, tracking symptoms and enforcing mask-wearing often falls on the parents.

"It's certainly a nice solution for wealthy people, but [it] can't be done for lower income/essential workers," said a California mother who participated in the Ipsos panel. "[It's] very elitist, so I do have misgivings about it."

The other side: "It doesn't have to be rich versus poor," said Keri Rodrigues, co-founder and president of National Parents Union. The organization has been working on providing resources, including grants, to parents looking for help in facilitating virtual learning in home settings.

• Among the grant proposals NPU has received are a group of parents putting together a pod for students in foster care and parents setting up a pod with slots reserved for students with special needs or from low-income families.

What to watch: Some churches, YMCAs and community nonprofits are organizing learning hubs for small groups of students, hoping to make the opportunity more widely available, Chalkbeat reports.

Go deeper: Axios Re:Cap podcast on the rise of learning pods

The switch to online learning is straining already under-resourced special education providers — and experts say it could lead to even steeper learning losses among a vulnerable student population, write Rashaan Ayesh and Erica Pandey.

• "There is no practical reason to believe that the slide won't be greater for kids with disabilities," said Bob Cunningham, executive director of learning development at Understood, an organization that supports parents and students with disabilities.

How it works: Many special needs students rely on in-person learning so they can pick up on social cues and further develop socially.

• Hands-on learning is difficult over a laptop screen. Many teachers use tactile stimulation to help students learn, which relies on the sense of touch.

Special educators often have behavioral aides or other support staff in the classroom.

• "In our new environment, there is no support staff," says Emily Smith, founder of TeleTeachers, which provides online tutoring to students with disabilities. "That falls on the parents, who are likely working and likely have no idea how to help their child participate in a session."

Go deeper: Axios Re:Cap podcast on special ed under pressure

Young adults see less value in college this fall than their older peers, according to survey data released this week by Strada Education Network, Kim writes.

By the numbers: 18-24 year-olds were more likely to say that (62%) compared to students 25 and older (50%).

• They were also less concerned about the coronavirus: Only 9% of this age group strongly agreed that pursuing education puts them at risk of infection, compared to 17% of students 25 and older.

The other side: By contrast, college students 25 and older are somewhat less concerned about the online class experience and, in many cases, actually prefer it, Strada research has found.

• That's likely because older adults are in school to gain specific skills, and the social aspect of college is less of a priority.

Why it matters: College kids crave the in-person campus experience, and many didn't like the hasty move to remote learning in the spring, said Andrew Hanson, Strada director of research and insights.

An Austin mom of four teenagers, who's also an event planner, has come up with a creative way to help small groups of kids throw their own homecoming dances — a high school rite of passage that many will miss out on this fall — in their living rooms, basements or backyards, Kim writes.

• Carolina Villarreal, founder of Mint Event Design, is putting together dance-themed "party kits" with the all-important photo backdrop and decorations.
• Families can add on additional services from local vendors, like food or extra furniture.

Beyond Homecoming: Villarreal is also planning to offer delivery for party packages for Thanksgiving gatherings and parties to replace the pre-winter-break parties at schools that likely won't be happening this year.

• For Halloween, she's crafting "trunk-or-treat" kits that parents can use to decorate their cars so families can team up to give small groups of kids a taste of trick-or-treat in a year when going door-to-door is a non-starter in most places.