Signs of a DOGE recession are flashing in D.C. — rising unemployment, less credit card spending and jitters about more federal cuts.

Why it matters: A local "mild recession" is expected as the Trump administration downsizes the capital city's big factory — the federal government, employer to 17% of the region's workforce.

State of play: Even before most of the federal job cuts, the number of unemployed residents in D.C. increased 12.2% in February over last year, city stats show.

• "Negative" is the city's credit outlook, Moody's Ratings declared last month. The agency yanked D.C.'s perfect triple-A bond rating, making it potentially pricier to finance projects.
• Spending at big retailers in the region dropped 2% in April, the Washington Post reported after crunching credit card data from Earnest Analytics.
• D.C. home listings are soaring.

Zoom out: There's pain in the suburbs, including in Maryland's Prince George's County, which has a prosperous Black middle class. The unemployment rate rose to 3.5% this year, from 2.2% in March 2023.

• Trump canceled plans to build a new FBI headquarters there — and the Washington Commanders and Six Flags America are leaving, the Post noted.
• In tech and defense-rich Fairfax County, Virginia, the jobless rate rose to 3.2% in March, from 2.2% last December.

Then: The federal government insulated D.C. from the worst of the Great Recession, and powered an economic boom. D.C.'s population grew about 14.6% between 2010 to 2020, according to the Census Bureau. Cranes dotted the skyline.

• Now: D.C.'s economy is projected to contract by 1.9% next fiscal year, the D.C. Chief Financial Officer says. Construction has slowed, with residential building permits dropping 33% as of February.

The vibes are bad — 79% of area residents think the Trump administration's cuts to federal programs and jobs will hurt the local economy, according to a new poll.

What we're watching.

The Trump administration welcomed white South African refugees into the U.S. yesterday, the same day it announced it is ending deportation protections for refugees from Afghanistan.

The big picture: The coinciding moves show a split screen of President Trump's immigration crackdown, accepting one group while revoking protections from the other.

Driving the news: The first flight carrying a group of South Africans granted refugee status arrived at Dulles yesterday.

• The admission of Afrikaners, a white ethnic minority that dominated South African politics during apartheid, is in response to Trump's "call to prioritize U.S. refugee resettlement of this vulnerable group facing unjust racial discrimination in South Africa," the State Department announced.
• The group has said they have been denied jobs and faced violence because of their race.
• More Afrikaner refugees will arrive in the U.S. in the coming months, per the State Department.

Asked why there's an expedited path into the country for Afrikaners but not for others, Trump said yesterday, "Because they're being killed. And we don't want to see people be killed," adding, "it's a genocide that's taking place."

• But a South African court determined in February that claims of a white genocide in the country are not true.

State of play: Over 9,000 Afghans could face deportation after the Department of Homeland Security announced yesterday the revocation of their temporary protected status.

• DHS said last month that it would not renew TPS status for Afghanistan refugees, but said yesterday that termination is slated for July 12.

Zoom in: Thousands of Afghans resettled in Northern Virginia after the Taliban takeover in 2021, and the state is home to the second-largest Afghan refugee population after California.

Go deeper.

D.C. residents continue to buy Teslas, despite local attacks and protests against the cars.

Why it matters: The brand of EV has become a symbol of ire for Washingtonians upset about Elon Musk's DOGE firings and their blow to the regional federal workforce.

• This has led to protests outside of DMV Tesla dealerships and instances of car vandalism in the area.

By the numbers: There have been 440 new Tesla registrations in D.C. between Inauguration Day and May 5, the D.C. DMV tells Axios.

• Six of those have been Cybertrucks.

The total number of D.C. Teslas as of last Monday: 5,001.

🖋️ President Trump will name DOJ's No. 2 Todd Blanche to be the acting Librarian of Congress. The former defense attorney in Trump's hush money trial may permanently replace Carla Hayden, the library's first female and Black leader, who was ousted by Trump last week. (Axios)

🏊 Move over Lorde, RFK Jr. is the latest swim-fluencer to dip their toes in questionable D.C. waters. The HHS secretary and his family swam in Rock Creek Park over the weekend — a no-go-zone due to sewage runoff. (Washingtonian)

😢 Compass Rose will close on June 1 after 11 years in business off 14th Street. Maydan restaurateur Rose Previte cited tough business conditions — a recent refrain — and her L.A. expansion, which will include a Compass Rose outpost.

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Memorial Day travel is projected to beat a 20-year-old record high this year, according to AAA data released yesterday — despite "pervasive pessimism" over the economy.

Why it matters: Americans keep breaking travel records in the post-pandemic period, either to make up for lost time, or now, get ahead of price hikes.

By the numbers: 45.1 million people are projected to travel at least 50 miles from home — up from 1.4 million last year.

The intrigue: D.C. is ranked among the most congested metros. Experts recommend hitting the road early starting Thursday, May 22.

• The worst local route/time: D.C. to Annapolis on Thursday at 3:45pm.

Keep reading.