The U.S. and Britain this morning unveiled the framework for a sweeping new trade pact, which sparked investor optimism that more may be on the way.

• Stocks rose, bond prices fell, and bitcoin jumped back over $100,000 as investors pivoted back into a risk-on trade. But some specific winners emerged from today's agreement.

What's inside: The universal 10% tariff on U.K. imports will remain. However, tariffs on U.K. autos will be lowered from 27.5% to 10%, with a quota of 100,000 vehicles.

• The U.S. will get new access to U.K. markets for exports of beef, ethanol and machinery.

The impact: Aston Martin jumped on the news, with shares of the U.K. luxury automaker surging 16% in London. Just last week it said it was scaling back U.S. imports due to President Trump's tariffs.

• U.K. aerospace suppliers Rolls-Royce and Melrose Industries rose after it was revealed that aircraft-related exports to the U.S. would be tariff-free.
• Deere & Co was another winner: Investors sent shares in the agricultural machinery maker up 3.7%.

Boeing seems to have scored the most immediate win, with a deal reportedly in place to sell 30 of its 787 Dreamliners to British Airways parent IAG.

• The U.S. jet maker has found itself front and center in Trump's trade war, with China reportedly forbidding its airlines from purchasing any Boeing planes just last month.

Reality check: The next deals may not come as easily. As Axios' Courtenay Brown and Neil Irwin noted earlier, a pact with the U.K. was the "low-hanging fruit of trade deals."

Go deeper: Why the U.K. trade agreement matters

You could have made a lot of money by betting against the conventional conclave wisdom.

• Prediction markets never saw it coming: Chicago native Robert Prevost is the first American to ascend to the papacy in history, and is now Pope Leo XIV.

The intrigue: The papal odds on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket swung heavily toward Cardinal Pietro Parolin after white smoke signaled the end of the conclave on its second day.

• Prevost's odds hovered in the range of 1% to 2% — or less — in the prediction markets since Pope Francis died.

💭 Nathan's thought bubble: It's fairly evident that the papal betting market was ill-informed, in contrast to prediction markets for matters such as presidential elections, which are steeped in data and historical analysis.

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🌎 Bill Gates plans to wind down the Gates Foundation over the next 20 years. The organization will commit its funds, totaling more than $200 billion, to health and human development before it closes its doors at the end of 2045. (NYT)

💎 De Beers is getting out of the lab-grown diamond business as prices plunge. CEO Al Cook said the move reflects "our commitment to natural diamonds." (Bloomberg)

🇪🇺 The European Commission released a list of more than $100 billion in imports from the U.S. that could eventually be tariffed if a trade deal can't be negotiated. It could target American products such as vehicles and jets. (Axios)

Krispy Kreme is hitting pause on its McDonald's partnership, and investors don't love it.

• The doughnut chain today said it is "reassessing the deployment" of its deal with McDonald's and will pause the nationwide rollout.

State of play: Krispy Kreme doughnuts are available in more than 2,400 McDonald's restaurants as of March 30.

• The company doesn't expect to add any McDonald's restaurants in Q2, Krispy Kreme CEO Josh Charlesworth said today on an earnings call. "We continue to believe in the long-term opportunity of profitable growth through our U.S. nationwide expansion, including McDonald's."

The news comes a week after McDonald's announced U.S. comparable sales fell 3.6%, the company's worst showing since the pandemic.

The impact: Krispy Kreme shares closed down 24.7% today after the news was announced in its quarterly earnings.

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