You could have made a fortune betting on an American pope

State of play: The papal odds on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket swung heavily toward Cardinal Pietro Parolin after the white smoke signaled the end of the conclave on its second day.

• The 70-year-old Parolin served as the Vatican's secretary of state under Pope Francis and had been the favorite all along.
• But it was Prevost who prevailed in a stunning development on the second day of the conclave. His odds hovered in the range of 1% to 2% — or less — in the prediction markets since Pope Francis died.

Context: Parolin was the favorite in the prediction markets since Francis died April 21, but his odds never sustainably exceeded 1 in 3 before Thursday.

• The second favorite was Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle.

The intrigue: After white smoke emanated from the Vatican on Thursday, bettors seemed to think the choice was Parolin — possibly under the premise that a speedy choice indicated a consensus pick.

• Parolin's odds to be named as the new pope jumped to nearly 70% soon after the white smoke appeared, up from about 27%–28% Thursday morning.

Go deeper: Meet Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, the first American pope