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Democrat Gina Hinojosa faces an uphill battle to unseat Gov. Greg Abbott, but political experts say economic pressures and a shifting political climate could create an opportunity.

Why it matters: The race will test whether frustration with Republican leadership is enough to shift voting patterns in a state where Democrats have struggled in statewide elections for decades.

The turnout challenge

Matthew Wilson, a Southern Methodist University political scientist, tells Axios the final stretch of the campaign is more about mobilizing supporters than changing voters' minds.

• "It is probably at this stage easier to mobilize someone who is not that fired up about voting than it is to actually change someone's mind," Wilson says.

The political opening

Alvaro Corral, a University of Texas Rio Grande Valley political scientist, tells Axios rising costs, particularly gasoline in car-dependent South Texas, has helped Hinojosa frame the election as a referendum on Republican leadership.

• Texas voters rank political corruption as a top concern, and Hinojosa has paired higher costs with what she calls the "Greg Abbott corruption tax" — doing the bidding of "monied interests," she says.

The other side: "The governor is always focused on the issues Texans care about most. He's focused on slashing property taxes; lowering the costs of energy, housing, auto and home insurance; and making college more affordable," Abbott campaign spokesperson Eduardo Leal tells Axios.

The Latino vote

Hinojosa's Brownsville upbringing is helping her connect with Hispanic voters in South Texas, Corral says.

• Her appeal comes as Latinos are shifting away from the Republican Party after having voted in large numbers for President Trump in 2024.

The coattails

Democrat James Talarico is drawing large crowds and has raised record amounts of money in his U.S. Senate bid.

• Hinojosa could benefit from that Democratic enthusiasm, including potential support from moderate suburban voters dissatisfied with Talarico's Republican opponent, Ken Paxton, Corral and Wilson say.

The bottom line: Corral said Democrats would need numerous factors to align to break their three-decade statewide losing streak.

• "Everything needs to go their way. Everything, everything, everything," he says.

The money gap

In-person early voting turnout surpassed 2018 levels in four of Texas' five largest counties ahead of tomorrow's closely watched election.

Why it matters: The figures don't indicate which candidates are benefiting, but suggest voter enthusiasm is rivaling or surpassing that seen during the 2018 Senate race, when Republican Ted Cruz narrowly defeated Democrat Beto O'Rourke.

By the numbers: More than 7.1 million Texans voted early in person through Friday, the close of early voting, representing nearly 37.6% of registered voters, according to data from the Texas Secretary of State.

• Including mail ballots, the total climbs to more than 7.4 million, or 38.9% of registered voters.

Zoom in: In Travis County, roughly 46.3% of registered voters cast ballots early in person, up from 45.1% in 2018.

• Tarrant County saw the largest jump among the five largest counties, climbing from 38.5% in 2018 to 41.2% this year.
• Bexar and Harris counties also exceeded their 2018 turnout rates, while Dallas County dipped slightly from 36.9% to 36.6%.
• Williamson County turnout was 47.7%, compared to 46% in 2018. Hays County was 47.5%, compared to 42.6 in 2018.

Reality check: High turnout doesn't necessarily favor either party.

What's next: Polls open tomorrow for Election Day 7am-7pm local time across Texas.

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👵🏻 Austin is on track to become a "super-aged society" as the share of residents 65 and older grows rapidly, the city's demographer says. (KUT)

🚧 Elon Musk's brain implant company Neuralink plans to build a new $2.7 million research facility in Del Valle, according to a state filing. (Austin American-Statesman)

🏢 The University of Texas will close the Dobie Twenty21 student dorm for the next school year, affecting housing options near campus. (Chron)

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Here's what's on deck this week.

Monday

🧘‍♀️ Enjoy bilingual yoga alongside Mariachi music to celebrate Día de los Muertos at Moody Amphitheater. 6-7pm, free.

🖼️ Head to First Light's inaugural "Visual Art and Coffee" series, featuring curator and gallerist Jill McLennon, who will discuss her exhibition "Everything is a Little Surreal" with Glasstire publisher Brandon Zech. $5, 9am.

Tuesday

🪩 Dance with Doja Cat on her Moody Center tour stop. Tickets start around $40, 7:30pm.

Wednesday

🤘 Catch the UT women's basketball team in the season opener against Fairleigh Dickinson at Moody Center. $11, 7pm.

Thursday

🌱 Plant saplings in an urban creek near Montopolis Practice Fields. No experience or tools required. Free, 9am-1pm.

🏀 Cheer on the UT men's basketball team against Gardner-Webb at Moody Center. $11, 7pm.

Thanks to Bob Gee for editing this newsletter.

👋 Asher is out.

📖 Nicole is reading "Kin" by Tayari Jones.