Prediction markets have emerged as an unlikely engine of viral misinformation, Axios' Zachary Basu reports.

• Once a niche corner of crypto and gambling cultures, these platforms — most notably Kalshi and Polymarket — have rapidly become central to how politics, media and global crises are understood in real time.
• Yet their social media accounts follow few of the rules that govern traditional journalism, even as their posts spread faster and farther.

🤳 Prediction markets' engagement-first social media approach is increasingly at odds with their pitch as responsible, regulated platforms.

• That tension was on display this month when Polymarket falsely attributed a "JUST IN" quote to Jeff Bezos — prompting a rare public denial from the Amazon founder.
• Polymarket, which has ties to Trumpworld, has repeatedly targeted MAGA adversaries — including New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) — with false, misleading or trollish claims.

Amid the chaos over immigration raids in Minneapolis, Polymarket's X account claimed President Trump had deported so many people from Minnesota that the state may lose a congressional seat.

• Polymarket later deleted the misleading post — but not before it was amplified by the Department of Homeland Security.

🇮🇷 In another case, Polymarket claimed Iran's regime had "lost control" of Tehran during a nationwide communications blackout.

• 🇬🇱 During the frenzy over Trump's Greenland threats, Kalshi falsely suggested the U.S. was in "technical talks" to buy the island.

Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said: "We believe in data as a strong complement to the news. Sometimes (rarely) when moving fast, we rely on sources that aren't accurate."

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Democrat Taylor Rehmet flipped a deep-red Texas state Senate seat in Tarrant County, easily beating a Trump-backed Republican, Axios Dallas' Tasha Tsiaperas reports.

• Rehmet was outspent 10 to 1 this month by his MAGA opponent, conservative activist Leigh Wambsganss, a Patriot Mobile executive.

Rehmet, a union president and Air Force veteran, won by 14 points (57%-43%) in the special election.

• Trump won the district by 17 points in 2024.

The district covers most of Fort Worth and its conservative northern suburbs. The race drew national interest after Rehmet, a first-time candidate, nearly won outright in a three-way November race.

• DNC Chair Ken Martin gloated: "November is coming, and we're ready. ALL GAS, NO BRAKES!!"

Rehmet, an aircraft mechanic, carried his early voting lead through Election Day despite a late push by Trump to rally Republicans.

💰 Rehmet spent a little over $70,000 from Jan. 1-21. Wambsganss spent more than $736,278 during that period.

• Wambsganss and Rehmet will face off again in November for a full, four-year term.

Get the latest ... Get Axios Dallas.

Imagine a world where ties to the U.S. feel like a burden, not a benefit to free society.

• "How America First Risks Becoming America Alone," an essay in this weekend's Wall Street Journal, says American allies — soured by President Trump's treatment — are "searching for alternatives to what increasingly feels like an abusive relationship."

📊 Positive views of the U.S. are declining worldwide, the essay notes:

1. Brits who view the U.S. unfavorably doubled in the past two years to 64%. (YouGov)
2. In Germany, 71% view the U.S. as an "adversary." (German polling firm Forsa)
3. Across Europe, just 16% view the U.S. as an ally. (European Council on Foreign Relations)
4. Nearly two-thirds of Canadians, Mexicans and Brazilians hold unfavorable views of the U.S., "and view their neighbor as a bigger threat than China."

Keep reading (gift link) ... Go deeper: "Trump's trade minefield squeezes America's allies," by Axios' Courtenay Brown.

A recent Waymo robotaxi accident outside a school in Santa Monica, Calif., highlights both the promise and the limits of AI operating safely behind the wheel. Axios' Joann Muller reports.

• Federal regulators are investigating after a Waymo robotaxi struck a child who ran into the street from behind a double-parked SUV. The company says the vehicle braked after detecting the child, slowing from 17 mph to under 6 mph before contact.
• Santa Monica Police didn't report any injuries.
• Based on Waymo's modeling, a "fully attentive human driver" would have hit the child at roughly 14 mph — a difference the company says shows a "material safety benefit."

🖼️ The big picture: With nearly 40,000 people killed each year in crashes involving human drivers, whether autonomous vehicles can do better is central to public trust.

• Keep reading ... Get Axios Future of Mobility.

China has gotten so good at making cutting-edge pharmaceuticals that it seriously threatens America's long-standing dominance in drug-making, Axios Future of Health Care author Caitlin Owens writes.

• China is "really very close to us," Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla told CNBC at Davos. "If they continue like that with that strength, they will become better than us. I think it's a wake-up call for us."

Why it matters: "If the United States loses its primacy in biopharmaceutical innovation, it risks weakening the financial and intellectual engine that drives broader biotechnology leadership," the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology wrote in December.

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With the government partly shut down until a House vote tomorrow, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries warned Speaker Mike Johnson yesterday: Don't count on Democratic votes to end the shutdown.

• Why it matters: Johnson may instead be forced to get virtually all of his members to vote for the funding legislation — a difficult task, as some GOP lawmakers are already raising strident objections.

Jeffries informed Johnson yesterday that Democratic votes won't be there to pass the bill in a bipartisan manner.

• Democrats are hesitant to support a two-week stopgap funding bill for the Department of Homeland Security that lacks reforms for ICE or Customs and Border Protection.

"The progressives are 'no' because of ICE funding and we want [Republicans] to carry the water," a House Democrat told Axios.

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Private nonprofits and Black philanthropists are stepping in to save endangered Black history touchstones, Axios' Russell Contreras reports.

• Why it matters: Private Black funding is becoming the last line of defense for many sites central to the country's democratic and civil rights memory, as the federal government retreats from preservation.

Nonprofits, activists and donors have moved quickly to rescue threatened sites:

• ⭐ Celebrity backing: Shonda Rhimes' foundation funded the $1.5 million purchase of the Mississippi barn where Emmett Till was tortured and killed in 1955.
• ⛪ Nonprofit funding: The African American Cultural Heritage Action Fund announced $5 million in grants to preserve five historically Black churches, from L.A. to Chicago and Selma, Ala.
• 🏠 Community ownership: An artist collective bought Nina Simone's childhood home in North Carolina, while a development team in Kansas City is working to save Negro League legend Satchel Paige's home.

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Your favorite Super Bowl foods keep getting more expensive, Axios' Sami Sparber reports.

• Prices for meat, poultry, fish, eggs, fruits, veggies, alcohol and soft drinks all rose over the past year, according to federal data.
• Still, those prices are increasing more slowly than a few years ago.

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