One year ago today, the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attacks unleashed unthinkable violence in Israel, Gaza and across the Middle East.

• The arrival of a full-blown regional war now threatens the lives of millions more people, Axios' Barak Ravid writes.

🔭 The big picture: One year after the largest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, the bloodshed continues with no end in sight. Israel could soon be fighting the longest war in its 76-year history.

• Last year's Hamas surprise attack, which killed 1,200 Israelis and led to the kidnapping of 250 more, was the worst security failure in Israel's history.

Israel's retaliation led to the bloodiest war in Gaza's history — and the deadliest year for Palestinians since 1948, with more than 41,000 people killed.

• Today, the fighting has spilled over from Gaza to Lebanon and at least six different fronts — upending the lives of tens of millions of people and triggering the region's biggest crisis since the Arab Spring in 2010.

🔬 What to watch: In the U.S., which continues to be Israel's most important ally and biggest supplier of arms, both Vice President Harris and former President Trump want the regional conflict to be over by Jan. 20.

• But whoever wins the Nov. 5 election is likely to inherit an expanding war in the Middle East.
• Whether it's Trump or Harris, the next president will have to make decisions on this issue on day one — and potentially even during the transition.

🔎 Behind the scenes: President Biden, who was personally involved in many of the war's turning points over the last year, had a clear goal after Oct. 7: prevent the crisis in Gaza from escalating to the entire region.

• But as the war continued, Biden's deterrence of Iran and its proxies — and his influence over Israel's decisions — waned.
• While the White House consistently called for de-escalation, Israel's operations in Gaza escalated, the attacks on Israel increased. The war in the region gradually expanded.

State of play: 100 hostages were released in a deal last November, and several have been rescued in Israeli military operations. But at least a dozen have been murdered in Hamas captivity. Several were killed by Israeli fire.

• Over the past six months, Biden has spent hundreds of hours pushing for a deal that would lead to the release of the hostages, and a ceasefire that might end the war.

But negotiations are almost completely frozen, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar refusing to allow concessions that would make such a deal possible.

• Biden built his entire strategy on the hostage and ceasefire deal — failing to develop any Plan B that could potentially halt the region's downward spiral.

The hostage crisis isn't likely to be solved before a new president enters the Oval Office.

• Keep reading.

Israel's war in Gaza is still raging, but the heaviest fighting has recently shifted to southern Lebanon, Axios' Dave Lawler and Jacque Schrag write.

• Israel says its goal is to clear out Hezbollah infrastructure to allow civilians who fled northern Israel after Oct. 8, 2023 — when Israel and Hezbollah began exchanging cross-border strikes — to safely return home.

👀 What we're watching: Israel says it's planning a "significant retaliation" for Iran's recent 180-missile attack, which could include strikes on oil infrastructure and other strategic targets.

• Iran — which launched a massive attack on Israel last week in response to the assassination of Hamas' leader in Tehran and Hezbollah's leader in Beirut — said it hopes to avoid war with Israel, and that its retaliation is over unless Israel responds with force.

Share this story.

Both presidential candidates' agendas would add trillions to already-enormous U.S. fiscal deficits over the next decade, Axios' Neil Irwin writes from a new analysis out this morning.

• Why it matters: The winner in November will inherit a very different economic backdrop than either former President Trump or President Biden did upon taking office in 2016 and 2020.

Debt is already much higher than it was then. Interest rates are substantially higher, making the cost of servicing that debt more burdensome to taxpayers.

• "If the next president doesn't lead in putting a fiscal reform plan in place, we will hit the record debt level this country has ever seen, and be much weaker for it," Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, tells Axios.

🧮 By the numbers: Former President Trump's plans would add $7.5 trillion to cumulative deficits from 2026 to 2035, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

• Vice President Harris' agenda would add $3.5 trillion to the tally.

Share this story.

The Supreme Court is about to dive deeper into some of the most contentious political issues dividing the country, at a time when it's already veering from its longtime mission of staying above the political fray, Axios' Sam Baker writes.

• Why it matters: The court's new term begins today with a historic case on trans rights already on the docket — and a spate of election-related challenges all but certainly around the corner.

Public opinion of the court is almost at a record low, driven mainly by disapproval from Democrats.

• Conservatives win just about every major case: Roe v. Wade is gone. Federal regulators' power is vastly diminished. Gun control laws are exceptionally difficult to defend.

👓 Between the lines: Former President Trump had a direct stake in three cases in the court's last term. He won all three — none more significant than the 6-3 ruling that granted former presidents wide-ranging immunity from criminal prosecution.

• Go deeper: Cases to watch this term.

During a 40-minute conversation on the hugely popular "Call Her Daddy" podcast, Vice President Harris blasted former President Trump for calling himself a "protector" of women, Axios' Rebecca Falconer writes.

• The show, hosted by Alex Cooper, is the most popular podcast for women, with about 10 million listeners per episode.

Why it matters: Research continues to show many voters don't feel like they know Harris — partly because of the compressed campaign, and partly because she's been running so cautiously.

🔮 What's next: The Harris-Walz ticket, which was doing fewer interviews than any major party's presidential pairing in modern American history, is embarking on a coast-to-coast media blitz 29 days before Election Day.

• Harris and Tim Walz sat for "60 Minutes" interviews airing tonight (8 p.m. ET) in an hour-long special edition of the show.

Harris also has interviews this week with "The Late Show with Stephen Colbert," "The View" and "The Howard Stern Show."

• She'll appear at a town hall hosted by Univision on Thursday.

"60 Minutes" preview clip ... Listen to Harris on "Call Her Daddy" ... Read key quotes.

Less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene left more than 200 dead and thousands with flooded and damaged homes across the southeast, Florida's Gulf Coast is preparing for another destructive storm.

• This one could be historic, Axios' Andrew Freedman and Sommer Brugal write.

Threat level: Milton was upgraded to hurricane status yesterday, and is forecast to hit the damaged west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday as a major hurricane.

• The area under greatest threat for landfall includes the Tampa Bay area — and communities north to Crystal River and south to Naples.
• A direct hit on Tampa could be extremely damaging for that storm surge-prone city.

Keep reading ... Get Axios Tampa ... 29 more Local cities.

House Democrats' campaign arm is leaning hard into Project 2025 in the final stages of the election — launching billboards in more than two dozen districts blasting the conservative blueprint, Axios' Andrew Solender writes.

The Lakers' LeBron James, 39, and his son, Bronny, 20, made NBA history last night when they became the first father-son duo to play together in the same NBA game, let alone on the same team.

• They played just over four minutes side-by-side in the second quarter of the preseason game in Palm Desert, Calif.

Watch the moment ... Keep reading.