How Trump or Harris would drive the deficit higher
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Both presidential candidates' agendas would add trillions to already-enormous U.S. fiscal deficits over the next decade, according to a new analysis out this morning.
The big picture: Former President Trump's plans would add $7.5 trillion to cumulative deficits from 2026 to 2035, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, while Vice President Kamala Harris' agenda would add $3.5 trillion to the tally.
- Public debt is already about 100% of U.S. GDP, and under current law is on track to rise to around 125% by 2035. Harris' fiscal plans would push that to 133% and Trump's plans to 142%, per the central estimates in CRFB's analysis.
By the numbers: The biggest driver of enlarged deficits in the candidates' plans is tied to extending provisions of the 2017 Trump tax cuts that under current law are set to expire at the end of next year.
- Trump's pledge to extend them in their entirety would add $5.35 trillion to cumulative deficits, while Harris' desire to extend only portions affecting households making under $400,000 would add $3 trillion to the deficit.
- Trump has proposed further tax cuts on households and businesses that CRFB estimates as reducing federal revenue by $3.8 trillion, while Harris proposes paid leave, child care, and related programs that it estimates as costing $1.4 trillion.
Both candidates have portions of their agenda that would raise cash for the federal government, but not enough to fully counteract budget-busting proposals.
- CRFB tags expected revenue from Harris' proposed tax hikes on corporations and high earners as raising $4 trillion, and Trump's planned tariffs at $2.7 trillion.
Between the lines: The winner in November will inherit a very different economic backdrop than either Trump or President Biden did upon taking office in 2016 and 2020.
- Debt is already much higher than it was then, and interest rates are substantially higher, making the cost of servicing that debt more burdensome to taxpayers.
What they're saying: "If the next president doesn't lead in putting a fiscal reform plan in place, we will hit the record debt level this country has ever seen, and be much weaker for it," Maya MacGuineas, president of CRFB, tells Axios.
- "Both candidates should make promises about how they would fix the debt not how they would make it worse," she adds.
Reality check: These sorts of projections can only tell us so much. The candidates' proposals are relatively vague, and any changes to fiscal policy will also depend on the composition of Congress.
