President Trump won a higher percentage of the Latino vote in 2024 than previously believed and came within striking distance of capturing a historic majority of those voters, Axios' Russell Contreras writes from a new Pew analysis.

• Why it matters: A rapidly growing — and once-solidly Democratic — voting bloc has taken a big swing toward Republicans.

The big picture: Pew's analysis of election data shows that Trump won 48% of Latino voters — a group that had soundly rejected him in 2020 and 2016 — and that they were a crucial factor in his victory. Kamala Harris won 51%.

• The new data shows that Trump rode back into office with a more ethnically and racially diverse coalition than previously known.

🧮 By the numbers: Trump's showing among Latinos was the best performance by a GOP presidential candidate in modern times, according to an Axios review of past elections dating back to 1960.

• Joe Biden took 61% of the Latino vote compared to Trump's 36% in 2020, a 25-point advantage.
• Hillary Clinton received 66% of the Latino vote to Trump's 28%, a 38-point advantage.

"This is no longer a wake-up call" for Democrats. "This is a damn get-your-act-together call," said Sisto Abeyta, a New Mexico-based Democratic political consultant of the Nevada-based firm Tri-Strategies.

• Abeyta said Democrats have been bleeding support from Hispanic men for some time by focusing on abortion and environmental issues instead of the economy.

🔭 Zoom out: A larger share of Asian Americans and Black Americans voted for Trump compared to his two previous presidential runs, making up a larger portion of his winning 2024 coalition.

• White American voters made up 78% of Trump's coalition, a decline from 88% in 2016, according to Pew.

Pew's study also punctures the notion among some Democrats that higher voter turnout would have enabled Harris to defeat Trump.

• The analysis suggests that higher turnout likely would have increased Trump's margin of victory.

Share this story ... Full Pew election analysis.

The Justice Department has privately demanded that the University of Virginia boot President James Ryan to help resolve an investigation into the school's DEI policies, The N.Y. Times reports.

• It's the first time the Trump administration has pushed a university to remove its leader — and shows President Trump's "bid to shift the ideological tilt of the higher education system ... is more far-reaching than previously understood," The Times adds.

A source familiar with the administration's position tells Axios' Marc Caputo: "UVA decided to rebrand DEI and negotiated in bad faith. The temperature has risen."

• University spokesperson Brian Coy told Axios: "UVA is committed to complying with all federal laws and has been cooperating with the Department of Justice in the ongoing inquiries. The federal government's support of the University is essential to continue the core mission of research, education and clinical care."

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Even as the stock market approaches an all-time high, a big cloud hovers over the economy: the housing market, Axios' Emily Peck writes.

• Why it matters: Home sales are hovering at historic lows, as economic uncertainty and high mortgage rates hold back buying.

The only other time over the past 20 years that pending home sales — deals that are in contract but not yet closed — have been this low was in 2020, when COVID briefly froze the real estate market.

🔎 Zoom in: Other indicators are flashing red, too. Existing home sales fell year-over-year in May to their slowest pace since 2009 (when the market was in tatters during the financial crisis), according to the National Association of Realtors.

• Home prices are now rising at the slowest annual pace in two years.
• Housing starts, or new homes beginning construction, dropped nearly 10% in May, the weakest since May 2020 — a sign that home builders are losing confidence in the economy.

The big picture: The real estate industry is reeling from news of ICE enforcement actions at home building sites, and tariffs raising the price of materials.

• Keep reading.

America's older population is growing while its younger cohort is shrinking, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick writes from new census data.

• Why it matters: This demographic trend presents big policy and economic challenges. More older Americans means we'll need more care workers, for instance.

The U.S. population aged 65 and up grew by 13% between 2020 and 2024, the Census Bureau says. The number under 18 fell by 1.7%.

👓 There are now 11 states with more adults 65 and up than children. In 2020, there were only three.

• The 11 are: Maine, Vermont, Florida, Delaware, Hawai'i, Montana, New Hampshire, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia.

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The U.S. attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities Saturday have left American voters with contradictory feelings, Axios' Marc Caputo writes from a new poll:

1. A majority favored limited strikes, but nearly as many said they were worried about a widening war and Iran retaliating on U.S. soil.
2. Most viewed the U.S. attacks as a success — and are likely to back similar military action as a result.

Why it matters: The survey — conducted by the Tyson Group, a Republican polling firm — sheds light on Americans' nuanced views of war and rapidly evolving foreign policy.

Republicans overwhelmingly approved of bombing Iran. Sizable majorities of Democrats and independents didn't.

• But once they were told the bombings only targeted Iran's uranium enrichment for its nuclear program, support increased in each group.

75% of voters in the poll think that despite the Israel-Iran ceasefire, the conflict could escalate into a wider war.

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The spectacular rise of China's auto industry — seemingly overnight — has rattled industry leaders and policymakers, catching many off guard, Axios Future of Mobility author Joann Muller writes.

• Why it matters: There's a dawning realization across the industry that China's ascendance is both an existential business threat and a national security risk.

🔭 The big picture: Disruption is nothing new for automakers, but they've never had to contend with the mountain of complex issues they face now: tariffs, geopolitical tensions, shifting regulations, broken supply chains, AI and electrification.

• The emergence of powerful Chinese rivals, though, is a more ominous and permanent threat, experts agree.

Foreign automakers' share of the Chinese market has collapsed. Everywhere else in the world — except the U.S. — Chinese brands are expanding, opening super-efficient factories and selling hybrids and EVs at prices no one else can touch.

• China makes 70% of the world's EVs and plug-in hybrids.

Keep reading ... Get Axios Future of Mobility.

Nate Morris, a pro-Trump entrepreneur, is joining the frenzied race to succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) with a cutting but lighthearted ad showing Morris riding on the back of a bouncing "DC SWAMP CLEANUP SERVICES" garbage truck.

• The "Garbage Day" ad, first reported by Breitbart's Matt Boyle, says each of Morris' two main rivals for the Republican nomination — U.S. Rep. Andy Barr and former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron — is a "McConnell Puppet."

The two-minute video will run as a digital ad and on social media.

• Morris, 44, who lives in Lexington, is founder and former CEO of Rubicon, one of the nation's largest waste and recycling companies, which he took public in 2022.

🎙️ Morris launched with a cutting-edge twist, announcing his campaign yesterday on Don Jr.'s podcast, "Triggered."

• Morris' campaign is run by a trio of Trump-Vance advisers — Andy Surabian, Chris Grant and Tony Fabrizio.

The Barr campaign said in a statement to Axios that Morris is "more of an East Coast liberal than a Kentucky conservative."

• Cameron called Morris "an America First pretender trying to pull the wool over your eyes," and launched a microsite, FakeNate.com.

Watch the ad ... More on the race.

Nearly every Windows user has had a run-in with the infamous "Blue Screen of Death" at some point in their computing life.

• Now, after more than 40 years of being set against a very recognizable blue, the updated error message will soon be displayed across a black background.

The changes to the notorious error screen come as part of broader efforts by Microsoft to improve the resiliency of the Windows operating system in the wake of last year's CrowdStrike incident, which crashed millions of Windows machines worldwide.

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