Stocks futures surged and oil prices fell in response to this exclusive reporting by Axios Middle East expert Barak Ravid:

The White House believes it's close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations, according to two U.S. officials and two other sources briefed on the issue.

• The U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours. Nothing has been agreed yet, but the sources said this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began.

Among other provisions, the deal would have Iran commit to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, the U.S. lift sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds, and both sides end restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Many of the terms would be contingent on a final agreement, leaving open the possibility of renewed war or an extended limbo in which the hot war has stopped but nothing is truly resolved.

🥊 Reality check: The White House believes the Iranian leadership is divided, and it may be hard to forge a consensus across factions. Some U.S. officials remain skeptical that even an initial deal will be reached.

• But the two U.S. officials said President Trump's decision to back off his newly announced operation in the Strait of Hormuz and avoid a collapse of the fragile ceasefire was based on progress in the talks.

📝 Behind the scenes: The one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding is being negotiated between Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and several Iranian officials, both directly and through mediators.

• More details.

Russ Contreras, who covers religion and crime for Axios, got an advance look at eye-opening data out this morning:

Physical assaults against Jewish people in the U.S. last year reached the highest level since 1979, the Anti-Defamation League reports today.

Why it matters: The number of anti-Jewish harassment and vandalism incidents declined in 2025, but that didn't extend to reduced violence.

ADL counted 6,274 antisemitic incidents in 2025, down 33% from 2024, but still the third-highest year on record.

• Last year saw 203 anti-Jewish assaults, up from 196 in 2024. Of those, 32 assaults involved deadly weapons, up from 23 in 2024.
• Nearly half of incidents (45%) were related to Israel or Zionism, down from 58% in 2024 but far above the roughly 10% share in the years before October 7, 2023.

🔎 Zoom in: Three people were killed in antisemitic attacks in 2025. It was the first year since 2019 that Jewish people were murdered in the U.S. due to antisemitic violence.

• Those attacks include a shooting at the Capital Jewish Museum in D.C., a Molotov cocktail attack at a rally for Israeli hostages in Colorado and a stabbing of a Jewish man in New York.
• A firebomb hit Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro's residence just hours after a Passover celebration.

🌐 The big picture: Antisemitism isn't just a U.S. trend, and it's rising, often tied to geopolitical conflict in Gaza and Iran.

• In Europe, a wave of stabbings, arson attacks and synagogue vandalism has prompted counterterrorism probes and heightened security for Jewish communities.
• Global incidents spiked alongside the conflict, with one analysis finding a 34% surge in antisemitism worldwide after fighting escalated.

Between the lines: U.S. college campuses saw the steepest drop in antisemitic incidents: ADL recorded 583, down 66% from 1,694 in 2024. Incidents tied to anti-Israel protests fell 83% on campuses.

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President Trump exacted retribution yesterday on Indiana Republican state legislators who blocked his push to redraw the state's congressional map, Axios' Alex Isenstadt writes.

• At least six GOP state senators were defeated in their primaries, one survived and one race was too close to call.

Why it matters: The outcome represented a major win for Trump's political team, which is aggressively going after Republicans who defy the president.

• Trump is also backing primary challengers to Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie and Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, both of whom face primaries this month. (See Item 5 below.)

👀 Behind the scenes: The Trump team — which was deeply involved in the Indiana effort — began planning for the Indiana blitz in February, two months after the legislators voted down Trump's redistricting plan.

• A pair of groups aligned with Indiana Sen. Jim Banks — named American Leadership PAC and Hoosier Leadership for America and overseen by longtime Trump operative Andy Surabian — spent $8 million to unseat the state senators.

🗳️ What's next: Trump's Indiana win puts pressure on Republican state legislators in other states to enact White House-backed redistricting measures.

• Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, and South Carolina are deliberating whether — or how aggressively — to redraw congressional maps following last week's Supreme Court ruling that weakened the Voting Rights Act.

Race-by-race results ... Takeaways from Ohio, Michigan.

The Iran war's fuel shock is hitting airfares hard: The average domestic round-trip economy ticket costs 24% more than last spring and is 26% higher than in January, according to Kayak data.

• International flights from the U.S. are up 16% over last year.

👀 What we're watching: The downfall of Spirit is casting a spotlight on the future of Frontier Airlines, which faces many of the same challenges as its former budget-carrier rival, Axios' Nathan Bomey writes.

• More on Frontier.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his MAHA movement are out for payback, setting their sights on unseating a fierce adversary — Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy — in next week's Louisiana primary, Axios' Alex Isenstadt writes.

• The MAHA PAC and President Trump have endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow to unseat Cassidy in the May 16 primary, where polling shows the senator running third.

Why it matters: Kennedy and his supporters view the physician-turned-senator as an avatar for the medical establishment they're determined to upend.

Cassidy, who chairs the Senate HELP Committee, was a pivotal vote to confirm Kennedy. But the senator has pushed back on RFK Jr.'s efforts to scale back vaccine recommendations and reshape the CDC.

• The most recent flare-up came last week, when Cassidy helped torpedo Casey Means' nomination for surgeon general. Means, a health influencer, is a close RFK Jr. ally and a major MAHA figure. She's the sister of Calley Means, a top Kennedy adviser.

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Axios automotive expert Joann Muller traveled to Long Beach, Calif., to see the latest on a Ford project she has been covering for nine months:

A former Tesla executive leading Ford's secretive West Coast effort to design an affordable electric vehicle has a bigger, unspoken mission: help Ford reinvent the way it designs and builds cars.

• Ford VP Alan Clarke gave reporters an inside look at the innovation labs inside the EV skunk works in Long Beach, which until recently had been strictly off-limits — even to CEO Jim Farley and other top executives.

A secret EV truck team spent four years experimenting as engineers rethought every design and manufacturing process, from simplifying the electrical architecture to revamping the assembly line to cut costs and improve efficiency.

• The group's first product, a mid-size electric pickup truck, will be built in Louisville, Ky., and go on sale next year.

🔮 What's next: Ford expects the EV platform to eventually anchor a whole family of EVs, from compact cars to full-size vans.

• Go deeper: "The Secret Team Blowing Up Ford's Assembly Line to Make a $30,000 Electric Truck" (WSJ gift link).

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Scale AI CEO Jason Droege tells me that AI is often too unreliable for mission-critical use by business, military and government.

• "The cost of mistakes in these environments can be high," Droege, 47, said in an interview from San Francisco, where Scale — which celebrated its 10th anniversary this week — is based.

Why it matters: Droege — who succeeded founder Alexandr Wang last June when the wunderkind became Meta's first chief AI officer, and Meta took a 49% stake in Scale — wants to signal that it isn't merely a data annotation company, but has long been an AI infrastructure and deployment company.

Droege unveiled his mantra for his 1,300+ employees in a memo, "The Reliability Race," being reported here for the first time. "Reliability at this level depends on human intelligence," he wrote. "Our forward-deployed engineers ensure reliability for customers' specific workflows and use cases."

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Flashbacks, anyone? President Trump is reviving the Presidential Physical Fitness Award as part of his push to return an annual physical fitness test to America's schools.

• The award is tied to the Presidential Fitness Test, a public-school fixture for decades that phased out under President Obama in favor of a program that minimized competition and focused on long-term health.

📸 Five presidents: Trump meets mascots from the Washington Nationals Presidents Race — George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Teddy Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln — on the South Lawn yesterday.

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