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February 16, 2023
π Hello, Thursday! Smart Brevityβ’ count: 1,483 words ... 5Β½ min. Edited by Noah Bressner.
π΅ Today at 12:30 p.m. ET, please join Axios' Sara Fischer and Erica Pandey for a virtual event about the music industry's future in a digital world. Guests include Grammy-nominated DJ, producer and entrepreneur Steve Aoki, and Audius co-founder Roneil Rumburg. Register here.
π£ 1 big thing: Medicare truth bomb
Illustration: Gabriella Turrisi/Axios
To stop Medicare's finances from imploding as soon as 2028, Congress has only three real options: raise taxes ... cut benefits ... or cut payments to the health-care industry.
- No one has a realistic plan for getting to "yes" on any of those, Axios' Caitlin Owens reports.
Why it matters: Republicans and Democrats are pushing even farther apart by distorting each other's positions β making any deal even harder.
What's happening: Medicare is one of the biggest line items in the U.S. budget. As the population ages, the program will get more expensive.
π§ How it works: Medicare's trust fund, which pays for hospital care, is funded through income taxes. Medicare's trustees say that by 2028, that fund will be paying out more than it takes in.
- Both parties have drawn red lines around possible reforms and made any cuts to the program a potent political weapon.
π₯ Reality check β why each of the three won't happen:
- The GOP has ruled out tax hikes on principle β and is well aware that cutting seniors' benefits would be political malpractice.
- Democrats are against benefit cuts on principle β and have gotten a lot of political mileage out of attacking them.
- Although some Republicans are hinting they might be open to reducing payments to the industry, the GOP's campaign apparatus is hammering the Biden administration for proposals to do exactly that.
2. π Parade of coming emergencies
Today's lead stories of New York Times, Washington Post
Other brewing cliffs lead today's N.Y. Times and WashPost.
3. πΆοΈ Stealth boom
Illustration: AΓ―da Amer/Axios
This piece by Neil Irwin and Courtenay Brown β from Axios Macro, our midday business newsletter β is the smartest (and most encouraging) lookahead you'll read this week:
Remember all that recession talk last year? Never mind.
- The U.S. economy roared into 2023, with January's exceptionally strong retail sales number, out yesterday, as the latest evidence.
Why it matters: The year's strong start β across consumer spending, the job market and inflation β muddles the outlook for how high the Fed may ultimately raise rates.
- It heightens odds that the central bank will end up tightening the screws more than it has been signaling.
What's happening: Retail sales rose 3% in January, reversing back-to-back declines in November and December.
- Consumers spent more in every single category the government tracks β except gas stations, where sales were flat.
- Economists at JPMorgan raised their Q1 GDP projection to 2%, from 1%, on the news.
π₯ Reality check: The apparent strength of the retail sales data is exaggerated by seasonal quirks, including early holiday shopping.
πΌοΈ The big picture: The Fed wants to see the economy continue to cool off. But the data flow in recent days suggests the opposite.
- Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economist Matthew Luzzetti and several colleagues wrote in a note Tuesday that the labor market "is so far remarkably resilient to Fed tightening."
4. π 1,000 words

Thousands of Chiefs fans turned out at Union Station in Kansas City, Mo., for yesterday's Super Bowl 57 victory parade.

Players β including QB Patrick Mahomes (above) β rode double-decker buses past fans who stood up to 10 deep as the parade rolled through downtown.
5. π Biden to steer World Bank toward climate

President Biden plans to seize on the surprise departure of World Bank President David Malpass as a chance to steer the bank toward fighting climate change, Axios' Hans Nichols reports.
- The bank said yesterday that Malpass will leave by June 30. His five-year term expires in April 2024.
Why it matters: Team Biden wants a candidate who is committed to expanding the bank's lending facilities to finance more renewable energy projects in the developing world.
- The administration has been working on a broader effort to expand the mission of multilateral banks beyond poverty alleviation, to focus on a range of global issues.
Flashback: Malpass β a former Trump official who was installed at the bank by the former president β caused a furor in September when he appeared to question the causes of climate change.
- Malpass apologized and tried to clarify his remarks, saying he wasn't a scientist. Biden officials considered removing him before his term was scheduled to end in April 2024.
- They decided against publicly ousting him β partly because they didnβt want to upset an informal agreement that allows the U.S., the bank's largest shareholder, to pick the president.
π The intrigue: Minutes after Malpass informed the bankβs board on yesterday that he was leaving, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was out with a statement β a sign top officials were aware he was quitting.
- Speculation is roaring about who Biden will reward with the plum β and powerful β position. Biden is interested in diversity, advisers say.
6. π Tesla opens up

Tesla agreed yesterday to open part of its proprietary car-charging network to drivers of other brands. That should make it far easier for electric vehicle (EV) owners to charge away from home, potentially accelerating adoption, Axios' Joan Muller writes from Detroit.
- Why it matters: The Biden administration's clean-energy agenda includes a shift away from gasoline-powered cars and a new domestic supply chain for electric cars.
- But many Americans have resisted buying EVs because they're worried about charging on long road trips.
The White House yesterday detailed a slew of measures meant to address those concerns, and to ensure that chargers are built in America.
- Most notably, Tesla agreed to make portions of its U.S. Supercharger network and its slower-speed destination chargers available to non-Tesla EVs.
The announcement was made by the White House, not Tesla.
- Tesla needed a nudge from President Biden to open up its network, The Washington Post reported.
- The carmaker can now qualify for federal tax incentives for deploying U.S. charging infrastructure.
Where it stands: S&P Global Mobility estimates the U.S. will need eight times as many chargers by 2030.
- Tesla will more than double its nationwide network of Superchargers, which are manufactured in Buffalo, the White House said.
π₯ Reality check: Most other EVs use a different type of plug than Tesla's proprietary connector. But new adapters are available.
- A multitude of hardware and software issues will need to be worked out before there's a seamless national network of EV chargers.
7. π First look: Trump's COVID preening

President Trump's handling of COVID ultimately cost him dearly. But Semafor's Liz Hoffman writes in a book coming March 7 β "Crash Landing: The Inside Story of How the World's Biggest Companies Survived an Economy on the Brink" β that he initially responded to the calamity by puffing himself up:
- On March 4, 2020, during a Roosevelt Room meeting with airline CEOs, Trump β calling them "the biggest and the best" β started out in rare muted form, turning the meeting over to Vice President Pence, "but his restraint in front of a bank of pool cameras only lasted so long. He soon interjected." The CEOs got what they came for: "When asked on live camera whether it was safe to fly, the president said it was."
- On March 11, 2020, during a Cabinet Room meeting with bank CEOs, Trump called them "probably the best bankers in the world." They "played the part, eager to show ... their banks were on sound footing ... Trump motioned to the CEOs to follow him, and the group filed into the Oval Office ... Out of view of the cameras, the CEOs urged the president to put money into testing [to] prevent unnecessary, scattershot lockdowns. β¦ Trump nodded, pursing his lips." Then he motioned toward his desk: "You guys want to take a picture?"
- On March 13, 2020, Trump announced during a Rose Garden news conference that he had instructed the Energy Department to purchase "at a very good price" large quantities of crude for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. His comments sent shockwaves through the markets just as they closed. NYSE President Stacey Cunningham texted Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin: "Press briefings earlier in the afternoon would put less strain on the market at a critical time."
8. π· Parting shot

The Codex Sassoon β the world's oldest (1,000+ years), most complete Hebrew Bible β is displayed at Sotheby's in New York ahead of a May auction where it's expected to bring $30 million to $50 million.

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