Everywhere Republicans look, they see big political trouble. Worse, they think things will get much bleaker before better as AI spreads through 2026, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write in a "Behind the Curtain" column.

• Republicans see it in the top November races, where they got cooked.
• They see it in rising internal MAGA drama and division.
• And they increasingly see it in private and public polls showing President Trump's persistently plummeting popularity on key issues.

Why it matters: Step back and survey the political landscape. Republicans aren't only losing elections, they're consistently losing support on prices and the economy, in all polls, big or small, Republican or Democrat, over a several-month period. You can't spin yourself out of reality.

• "People are depressed," a Trump loyalist at the barricades told us.

Five new polls this week show Republicans' problems might be even deeper and more worrisome than many fear:

1. In a Fox News Poll out last evening, voters said the White House is doing more harm than good on the economy: 46% said they've been hurt by the administration's economic policies, 15% say they've been helped and 39% said Trump has made no difference.
2. Edelman this week released a flash update to its highly influential Trust Barometer, showing Americans are deeply fearful and distrustful of the Trump administration's top domestic fixation: accelerating AI. Big majorities are pessimistic about the technology broadly, and super-anxious that robots will eat their jobs. The global poll found that younger people in the U.S. (18-34) are much more distrustful of AI than their counterparts elsewhere in the developed world. Edelman CEO Richard Edelman told us: "People might believe that AI is globalization 2.0 — that jobs will shift out of our country, and jobs will go to ... somebody younger or cheaper."
3. In Wisconsin, the swingiest of swing states, a new Marquette Law School Poll shows Democrats are more motivated and more popular heading into the 2026 elections. Voters are flunking Trump on the economy and inflation. These numbers are brutal: 36% approve of the Trump economy, and 28% approve of his handling of inflation and the cost of living. Looking to the future, 60% think Trump will drive prices even higher. Just 27% believe he'll lower them.
4. A Marist Poll found Democrats have a 14-point lead over Republicans on the midterm generic ballot. ("If the 2026 election for Congress were held today, which party's candidate are you more likely to vote for in your district?") "This is the first time in more than three years that Democrats have had a notable advantage on the congressional generic ballot question," Marist notes. A year ago, registered voters were split 48% to 48%.
5. Fox Business featured a Reuters/Ipsos poll showing Trump's approval rating falling to 38% — the poll's lowest since his return to power, weighed down by his handling of the cost of living, and by the Epstein fracas. (Nate Silver's approval average is 41.5%. The Real Clear Polling average is 42.7%.)

🖼️ The big picture: Trump officials know they need to shift this perception dramatically — and quickly. Yet big, lavish black-tie dinners with the Saudis or gold-plated White House renovations make it harder to convince voters that Trump is on the case.

• There are also signs, small but noteworthy, of Republicans' rock-solid unity starting to fracture a bit — including the House revolt on the Epstein files ... the Senate's refusal to yield to Trump's demand to scrap the filibuster, which would allow simple-majority votes ... and roadblocks to Trump's push for pro-GOP redistricting in Texas, Indiana and Kansas.
• If the economy goes south — or perceptions of it remain in the cellar — Trump will have the same problem President Biden did: telling people their feelings and perceptions are wrong.

The bet: Trump officials tell us they feel confident the economy will grow and prices will ease starting in Q1 of next year. Trump will then declare victory on rescuing, then juicing the economy — and warn a Democratic Congress would pull America back to the Biden economy days.

• The Trump machine would then use redistricting wins (producing more winnable seats) + Trump's political money ($1 billion+) to protect the GOP's thin House majority.

Steve Bannon, whose "War Room" podcast is one of the most muscular MAGA machines, told us he hopes this red alert will inspire "Action, Action, Action" by Trump.

• "Let's run the table [with] a simple plan, aggressively executed," Bannon texted us. "The President may have to bang some heads. [His] entire plan has an objective of GROWTH, JOBS, HIGHER WAGES — now execute."

🥊 Reality check: Yes, Trump is right that Trump and Republicans do well when he's on the ballot. But he never will be again. And if you look at other recent elections without Trump running, you see why Republicans are panicky. More often than not, they lose.

• A smart analysis by Tim Carney, a senior fellow at American Enterprise Institute, a top conservative think tank, captured this reality starkly: "In 2016, Republicans controlled 31 governorships and 68 legislative chambers. Come January, the GOP will control only 26 governorships and 57 legislative chambers (more than a 15% reduction on both scores)."

The other side: The Democratic brand remains in the dumps. But most polls show a generic Democrat beating a generic Republican for Congress in 2026. And poll after poll shows about two-thirds of independents — the swing voters — down on just about everything Republicans do other than fighting crime and shutting the Southwest border.

The bottom line: The chances of a fast, decisive economic surge aren't high. Most forecasts project modest growth and continued pricing pressure for many household goods. Toss in Al and its possibility to gut new white-collar jobs, and you can clearly see the GOP risk — and angst.

• Share this column ... Marc Caputo contributed reporting.

🇸🇩 What we're watching: President Trump said he'll give greater attention to helping find an end to the brutal civil war in Sudan, after being urged to take action by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Keep reading.

Big Tech has defeated its bipartisan critics, setting itself up to get even bigger, Dan Primack and Ashley Gold write in Axios Pro Rata.

• The last gasp of opposition was snuffed out this week in a federal courtroom, when Meta won a landmark antitrust case that had been brought by the FTC near the end of President Trump's first term.

The big picture: There's widespread agreement in D.C. that a small handful of companies have become uncomfortably powerful.

• But almost all efforts to stem the tide have failed, leaving politicians with few deliverables beyond viral videos of CEOs being berated during congressional hearings.

🔬 Zoom in: Big Tech moves much faster than government.

• Antitrust lawsuits, for example, often turn on the way particular markets are defined. But the cases can drag on for years. During that time, the markets can be dramatically altered by technological changes.
• Judges also rely on written law, and Congress is systemically behind the times.

👀 What we're watching: One thing that could shift momentum is if lots of Americans begin losing jobs to AI, or at least perceive that they're losing jobs to AI.

• Go deeper with Axios Pro Rata.

ICE gets all the attention. But a new cluster of joint task forces is quietly becoming a potent part of President Trump's mass deportations push, Axios' Brittany Gibson writes.

• Why it matters: A single joint task force raid last weekend in San Antonio netted more arrests than ICE and Border Patrol's high-profile entry into Charlotte.

The Texas raid, which targeted alleged Tren de Aragua gang members, resulted in more than 140 arrests, Axios San Antonio reported. Two days of an enforcement surge in Charlotte totaled 130.

• The San Antonio operation resulted in more arrests than a similar operation in Chicago with federal agents and a Black Hawk helicopter, which caught 37 people.

🔎 Zoom in: The task forces, co-led by the FBI and ICE's Homeland Security Investigations unit, will eventually have outposts in all 50 states. They're up and running in South Texas, Alaska and Indianapolis.

• They'll have a centralized command center led by Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Kristi Noem, with a mandate to combat cartels, international gangs and terror groups.

Mapped above: Outside of the task forces, ICE has done high-profile operations in LA, Chicago, Charlotte and Raleigh, with one planned after Thanksgiving in New Orleans.

• Keep reading.

The share of 12th-grade girls in America who are interested in getting married someday has dropped 22 points in the last three decades — from 83% in 1993 to 61% in 2023, Axios' Erica Pandey writes.

• The percentage of boys who want to get married has remained roughly the same, according to a Pew analysis of University of Michigan survey data.

Why it matters: It's yet another data point illustrating the deep divide between young men and women — in politics, religion and life goals.

The White House is floating an executive order to override state AI laws by launching legal challenges and placing conditions on federal grants, according to a copy of the draft seen by Axios' Ashley Gold and Maria Curi.

• Why it matters: It would mark a sharp escalation in the administration's bid to centralize and accelerate America's AI policy — and could face legal scrutiny.

The draft executive order — "Eliminating State Law Obstruction of National AI Policy" — calls on government agencies to move aggressively to end a patchwork of state laws in favor of a "minimally burdensome national standard."

• Keep reading.

Nvidia — the world's biggest company, which makes chips that power AI — delivered record earnings results with revenue up 62% year-over-year, impressing even the lone analyst on Wall Street who advises investors to sell the stock, Axios Markets author Madison Mills writes.

• Why it matters: The results and market reaction so far indicate nothing is stopping the Nvidia train.

The eye-popping numbers from Nvidia — which makes up 8% of the S&P 500 and 1% of the global market — may help ease concerns that the market is heading full speed into an AI bubble.

• CEO Jensen Huang addressed this at the top of his remarks on the call, saying that "there's been a lot of talk about an AI bubble. From our vantage point, we see something very different."

Get Axios Markets ... Nathan Bomey's earnings wrap.

Consumers scrambling to take advantage of expiring tax credits for electric cars drove a record-breaking $75 billion quarter of U.S. clean-energy investments, Axios' Amy Harder writes from a report by the Rhodium Group and MIT.

• Reality check: This is poised to be a high-water mark for such investments, since a rush to beat expiring tax credits only happens once.

Share this story ... Get Axios Future of Energy.

The same evolutionary forces that turned wolves into domesticated dogs over thousands of years may now be reshaping city raccoons — even potentially making them cuter, Axios Seattle's Christine Clarridge writes from recent research.

• Researchers told Scientific American that raccoons living near people develop snouts about 3.5% shorter than their rural cousins, along with smaller heads, floppier ears, softer features and lighter fur or white patches — all hallmarks of domestication.

Easy food rewards the bolder, calmer raccoons — the ones willing to hang around people less aggressively, so they aren't a nuisance.

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