Read the polls, watch economic indicators and talk to President Trump's inner circle in private, and the verdict on his second term seems clear:

• Even some longtime insiders fear he's trapped by a war he shouldn't have waged, tariffs he shouldn't have levied, monuments he shouldn't be obsessed with, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write in a "Behind the Curtain" column.

Why it matters: These three topics chew up much of Trump's time and attention. All three are widely unpopular in polls.

• And it's almost impossible to see the public suddenly warming to war, tariffs or more statues.

By the numbers: Trump's approval cratered to an all-time low of 32% in a Quinnipiac poll last week. Even more damning: 68% of voters said he isn't focused enough on the problems most Americans face.

• Trump has squandered the GOP's most durable political advantage: A Reuters/Ipsos poll this week (and a Pew poll last month) found voters split on which party is better for the economy — after Republicans had led on the issue for nine years, back to Trump's first term. Republicans still back Trump on immigration, a new AP-NORC poll shows.

👀 Behind the scenes: New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman estimates 70% of the president's mindshare goes to renovations and monuments. "It's a legacy thing," she told her colleague Ezra Klein.

• A Trump insider told us: "He concentrates on the hobbies that distract from his terrible polling numbers, about which he is in denial. The other issue is how the war, tariffs and monuments are demoralizing the base."
• And we keep hearing complaints from top Republicans about Trump's reluctance to unleash the $400 million cache built by his super PAC, MAGA Inc. The unwillingness to spend big, now, in game-changing races has "demoralized donors," the insider said.
• There's a saying in politics that campaigns are won and lost in the summer. For Republicans, this was the Trump-induced summer of discontent.

The big picture: Our reporting shows Trump has no desire to back off any of these topics, especially renovations and monuments, or shift to a new policy agenda before or after the November elections.

• Ahead of the midterms, he has poured political capital into another self-destructive fixation: the SAVE America Act, which would impose national proof-of-citizenship and voter-ID requirements. Republicans have told Trump, repeatedly, that the bill has no path through the Senate. They lack the 60 votes needed to overcome a Democratic filibuster — and the 51 Republican votes needed to abolish it.
• Trump has refused to accept that reality, instead whipping the MAGA base into a frenzy against Senate Majority Leader John Thune and other Republicans who won't comply.

👀 What to watch: Top congressional Republicans tell us Trump's unpopularity points toward the likely loss of the House, and perhaps the Senate. Some gently, indirectly, plead with him to shift to affordability or the economy.

• But an 80-year-old man who made the greatest comeback in American political history appears too proud, stubborn and undisciplined to change, Republicans privately admit.
• So rather than face the issues, Trump often pivots to showing visitors renderings of the new White House ballroom or a model of the planned Triumphal Arch. He showcases his new Air Force One, touts his plans for Dulles, and obsesses about the helipad being built on the South Lawn.

The bottom line: "Sixth-year summers are historically terrible for presidents," the insider said.

• Marc Caputo and Zachary Basu contributed reporting ... Share this column.

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio is waging an unprecedented economic war on Cuba — and wants to make sure the island's communist leaders know it's going to get worse, Axios' Marc Caputo writes.

• "What we're trying to teach them is, there are no escape valves," Rubio told Axios.

Why it matters: Cuba's economy is in a state of slow-motion collapse because of crushing U.S. sanctions and communist mismanagement of the island, which prides itself as the hemisphere's chief foe of the superpower 90 miles to its north.

• President Trump hasn't ruled out military action.

🖼️ The big picture: Because of the pressure campaign, Cuba is now a de facto renegade colony of the U.S., upon which it now relies for most of its food, fuel, medicine and currency — all of which are scarce on the island.

• Rubio told Axios that Cuba is playing for time by faking reforms while seeking ways to evade sanctions.
• "Every time they create a new mechanism in which they try to get out of the noose, we just close it off," Rubio said. "They certainly can't wait us out. Certainly this isn't going to go away for the next 2½ years."

Behind the scenes: Foreign companies are fleeing Cuba amid the threat of sanctions. U.S. companies — especially fuel distributors — are moving in as enterprises such as Cuba's state-run oil company crumble under the pressure. It's creating a nascent capitalist black market.

• Rubio has been in talks to change governance of the island with Raulito Castro, the grandson of ailing Cuban revolutionary Raúl Castro. But it's unclear whether he could lead a transition government or have much staying power.
• The U.S. is trying to cultivate other Cuban officials and figure out how to create a coalition for reform. But "it's hard to deduce entirely because that system is so paranoid," a U.S. official said.

Worthy of your time.

Republicans plan to use their first-ever midterm convention in Dallas next month to mount a sweeping, made-for-prime-time case that Democrats have become captive to their activist left, Axios' Alex Isenstadt has learned.

Why it matters: With President Trump's approval rating in the 30s and his war in Iran weighing on the economy, Republicans don't want the Nov. 3 midterms to be just a referendum on his presidency.

• They're essentially planning a "But they're worse" campaign targeting the ascendant Democratic left and socialism.

Republicans will make progressive politicians and activists recurring characters throughout the Sept. 9-10 convention at the American Airlines Center in Dallas.

• GOP operatives spent months compiling footage of Democratic figures — including left-wing commentator Hasan Piker and Texas U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico — that they'll use throughout the convention to paint Democrats as outside the mainstream.

📱 "Our video trove is endless," a convention source told Axios.

• Organizers will focus on Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Michigan, who backs Medicare for All and criticizes Israel.

Republicans will spotlight Trump's tax exemption for some tipped income, efforts to cut prescription drug prices, tougher border enforcement, crime-focused urban policies and the administration's new child investment accounts.

• They'll also highlight Vice President Vance's "anti-fraud" task force and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s MAHA movement. Trump strategists believe MAHA can again help broaden the GOP coalition.

What else to expect.

OpenAI's highly anticipated consumer device will cost more than $300 and have a "unique look, complete with moving parts that help give it personality," Bloomberg managing editor for consumer tech Mark Gurman writes.

• The device will be shaped like a donut and about the size of a hockey puck — designed to make it easy to carry around the home.

🔊 How it works: Think of it like a smart speaker without a screen. It'll work like ChatGPT's voice mode on a phone but powered by more advanced models built for humanlike interaction.

• The device is designed to learn more about its user over time so it can act less like a typical voice assistant and more like a real person.

Keep reading (gift link).

A Stanford-led research team has used generative AI to design a synthetic virus — the first time AI has been harnessed to create an organism that has never been seen in nature, Axios' Adriel Bettelheim and David Nather write.

• Why it matters: It could be the first step toward the nightmare scenario AI experts have already warned about — deadly pathogens that can't be stopped.

The research could also lead to medical breakthroughs, which is the hope of the research team that conducted the study. "The ability of genome language models to generate entire functional genomes has not been tested," they wrote.

• Researchers wrote in Science that they used an AI model to design viruses that can infect and kill the microbe E. coli.

Keep reading.

SEATTLE — Wildfire smoke blanketing this coastal city and much of the West is an ominous reminder that the reach of destructive fires is growing, Axios' Amy Harder writes.

• Why it matters: Climate scientists study how global warming increases the odds of wildfire. People living through it are confronting a more immediate question: Where is truly safe anymore?

Wildfires intensified by climate change are like an unforgiving spotlight sweeping across the world. No one really knows where it will stop next.

• Right now, that spotlight is on Spokane, Wash., where a historic wildfire has destroyed neighborhoods and remains uncontrolled.

Keep reading.

Workers are getting a smaller slice of the economic pie than ever, Axios' Matt Phillips writes from Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

• At 53.7%, labor's share of national income is now the lowest on record — even as corporate profits soar.

🤖 What we're watching: Whether — or how much — the AI boom supercharges these record numbers. Some researchers think that AI is already squeezing worker pay.

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The humble hot dog is undergoing an extravagant glow-up with luxury ingredients, social media-ready presentations and fine-dining prices, The Wall Street Journal writes.

• The caviar dog: A $100 "Golden Glizzy" with 30 grams of caviar and gold flakes — which Axios Miami's Sommer Brugal told you about in March — went viral at the Formula One Miami Grand Prix and Miami Open tennis tournament.
• The hot dog tower: Modeled after seafood towers, these multitier spreads of hot dogs and sauces are showing up at ski resorts, stadium suites and high-end taverns. Breckenridge Ski Resort's $60 version comes with six all-beef hot dogs and waffle fries.
• The 2-footer: At Coors Field in Denver, a nearly 2-foot-long hot dog nicknamed "the Glizzilla" — a nod to "glizzy," slang for a hot dog — sells for $45.

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