Exclusive: Rubio's secret squeeze on Raul Castro's Cuba

• "I wouldn't call these 'negotiations' as much as 'discussions' about the future," a senior Trump administration official said.

Zoom in: Rubio and his team see the 41-year-old grandson and his circle as representing younger, business-minded Cubans for whom revolutionary communism has failed — and who see value in rapprochement with the U.S.

• "Our position — the U.S. government's position — is the regime has to go," the senior official said. "But what exactly that looks like is up to [President Trump] and he has yet to decide. Rubio is still in talks with the grandson."
• Called "Raulito," the younger Castro is known in political circles by his nickname "El Cangrejo" ("The Crab") because he has a deformed finger.

Zoom out: After 67 years of U.S. sanctions and Cuban mismanagement, the totalitarian government appears closer than ever to collapse as the island teeters on the edge of a humanitarian crisis.

• The power grid is failing. Hospitals are limiting surgeries. Food and fuel are increasingly scarce. Tourism is drying up. Uncollected garbage is piling up on some street corners.

• The troubles accelerated after Trump ordered the Jan. 3 abduction and extradition of Venezuela's indicted socialist strongman Nicolas Maduro, who essentially supplied free oil to Cuba.
• On Jan. 29, Trump threatened sanctions on the island's other large oil supplier, Mexico.

Between the lines: The U.S. military's success and technical superiority in the Maduro operation shook Cuba's leadership after American forces suffered no losses and killed at least 32 Cuban intelligence and military officials who were supposed to be guarding Maduro, U.S. officials say.

• But the U.S. decision to keep Maduro's governing partners in power —notably his Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who's now acting president — signaled to Cuban insiders that Trump and Rubio are willing to make deals with rivals.
• Before Maduro was seized, Rubio and other Trump administration officials and advisers were in contact with Venezuelan elites just as they are doing now with Cuba, sources tell Axios.
• "They're looking for the next Delcy in Cuba," a source familiar with the talks said.

Behind the scenes: Trump advisers have spoken with other influential Cubans besides the younger Castro, but he's seen as the most important figure on the island to cultivate.

• "He's the apple of his grandfather's eye," served as the dictator's bodyguard, and also has allies running the mammoth military-business conglomerate known as GAESA, said one source who described the Rubio-Castro conversations as "surprisingly" friendly.
• "There's no political diatribes about the past. It's about the future," the source said, noting their common Cuban heritage and accents that are the lingua franca of Miami and surrounding cities.
• "Raulito could be straight out of Hialeah," the source said. "This could be a conversation between regular guys on the streets of Miami."

The intrigue: As in Venezuela, analysts say, they expect Trump could leave some officials in power in Cuba and not seek a wholesale regime change because of memories of the disastrous de-Baathification after the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

• Some Castro family members, including Raul Castro, might not be forced into exile under a deal with Trump, which would outrage Cuban exiles in Miami.
• Rubio hasn't spoken with Cuba's official leader, President Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, or other high-ranking officials.
• They're perceived by the U.S. to be communist party "apparatchiks" unable to envision and negotiate change in Cuba, said another source familiar with the Trump team's thinking.

What they're saying: Asked about the discussions between the younger Castro and Rubio, Cuba's government sent Axios a statement issued to a Mexican journalist disputing rumored talks between the U.S. and another Castro family member, Alejandro Castro Espín, a senior intelligence official.

• "There is no high-level dialogue between the government of the United States and Cuba. There is not even dialogue at an intermediate level. There have been exchanges of messages," the statement said.
• "What exists are the usual conversations that have taken place over a long period of time — or even less than that. Until a year ago, we had regular dialogues at the senior official level with the State Department. Today, that no longer exists."
• The State Department didn't dispute that Rubio has spoken with Raulito Castro, but a spokesperson declined to discuss the matter or comment.

Reality check: Converting Cuba into more of a U.S. ally will be a far harder task than Venezuela, which has an intact political opposition and more of a thriving economy when compared to Cuba's destitute command-and-control state apparatus.

• The mutual animosity between hardliners in Havana and Miami is deeply ingrained on both sides of the Straits of Florida.
• Last week, Cuban American Republicans in Congress asked Trump to indict Raul Castro in the 1996 shootdown of a plane carrying members of a U.S.-based aid group that helped Cuban rafters. The Trump administration hasn't responded.
• Rubio has said little publicly about his discussions, but in a Senate hearing last month he pointed out U.S. law aims for regime change if Cuba does not free political prisoners, allow for a free press and does not hold elections.

Trump hasn't decided on a course of action with Cuba.

• As part of his decision-making process, on display in Venezuela, Trump tasks trusted advisers such as Rubio to present options to him.
• Trump's paying more attention to settling the wars in Iran and Ukraine than handling Cuba, where Rubio is still assembling options, a source said.
• "Cuba is right now a failed nation, and they don't even have jet fuel to get for airplanes to take off," Trump told reporters Monday night on Air Force One.
• "We're talking to Cuba right now ... and they should absolutely make a deal."