Axios AM

January 16, 2026
Happy Friday! Smart Brevity™ count: 1,483 words ... 5½ mins. Thanks to Natalie Daher for orchestrating. Edited by Mark Robinson and Bill Kole.
1 big thing: Trump's immigration erosion
President Trump's team recently reviewed private GOP polling that showed support for his immigration policies falling. The results, reflected in public surveys, bolstered internal concern about the administration's confrontational enforcement tactics, Axios' Alex Isenstadt and Marc Caputo report.
- Now, as the chaotic scenes from Minnesota play out around the clock on TV and social media, Axios has learned that some Trump advisers quietly are talking about "recalibrating" the White House's approach — though it's unclear what changes Trump would embrace, if any.
Why it matters: The worries in part of Trump's brain trust are the first signs of internal second-guessing his controversial ICE enforcement tactics.
- 📉 The private polling suggested a rupturing of the coalition of independent, moderate and minority voters who were key parts of Trump's victory in 2024. Such voters will play a big role in determining whether Republicans keep their slim House majority in November's midterms.

Some advisers are playing to the president's occasional misgivings about the optics of some ICE tactics.
- A top Trump adviser told Axios: "I wouldn't say he's concerned about the policy. He wants deportations. He wants mass deportations. What he doesn't want is what people are seeing. He doesn't like the way it looks. It looks bad. So he's expressed some discomfort at that ... There's the right way to do this. And this doesn't look like the right way."
🧮 By the numbers: The internal GOP polling that alarmed some Trump insiders was completed at the end of December, days before an ICE agent fatally shot Renee Good in Minneapolis.
- 60% of independent voters and 58% of undecided voters said Trump was "too focused" on deporting illegal immigrants, the poll viewed by Trump's team found.

🎙️ ICE's tactics are drawing pushback from some prominent Trump supporters. Joe Rogan, who endorsed Trump on the eve of the 2024 election, complained on his show this week about "militarized groups of people roaming the streets, just showing up with masks on, snatching people up."
- "Are we really going to be the Gestapo?" he asked. "'Where's your papers?' Is that what we've come to?"
🥊 Reality check: Publicly, Trump and the White House continue to back an aggressive approach on immigration.
- In a Truth Social post yesterday, Trump threatened to invoke the rarely used Insurrection Act to deploy the U.S. military or federalize the National Guard in Minnesota, "and quickly put an end to the travesty."
White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem are architects of the current effort, and they have Trump's support.
- Some Trump allies believe Noem, a former South Dakota governor, is preparing to run for president in 2028 as an immigration hardliner.
📺 What's next: A close White House ally said the administration needs to go beyond pro-Trump outlets such as Fox News to promote positive aspects of Trump's immigration agenda.
- White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told Axios: "President Trump continues to be viewed as a strong leader who keeps the American people safe. A big reason for that is his law and order agenda and handling of immigration/border security — which remains among his best polling issues with voters."
2. ⚠️ Exclusive data: Our shared reality is collapsing
Worldwide, people no longer accept the same sources, authorities or even the validity of the act of disagreement itself, Axios' Zachary Basu writes from the annual Edelman Trust Barometer, coming Sunday.
- Why it matters: The PR giant's massive annual survey suggests the global trust crisis has crossed a new threshold.
🔎 The phenomenon goes beyond traditional polarization. It's fragmentation at a societal level — making shared facts harder to establish, arbiters of truth harder to find, and disagreement harder to resolve.
By the numbers: Only 39% of people globally say they get information weekly from sources with a different political leaning — down six points in one year, according to Edelman's survey of more than 37,500 people across 28 countries.
- Over the past five years, trust has drained from national government leaders (–16) and major news organizations (–11), and flowed instead to personal circles: neighbors, family and friends (+11), coworkers (+11) and "my CEO" (+9).
💡 Stunning stat: Among both the highest- and lowest-income respondents, business enjoys a vast trust advantage over government — seen as 43 points more competent and 27 points more ethical.
🔮 Coming Sunday evening: Full report, "2026 Edelman Trust Barometer."
3. 🏗️ Scoop: BlackRock's new AI warning


The world is on the cusp of a generation-defining construction boom, but the U.S. may not have enough workers to make it happen, Axios' Courtenay Brown & Megan Morrone write from a new BlackRock paper.
- Why it matters: This is the new fault line of the global economy — soaring demand for some workers and shrinking appetite for others. It could result in widening financial gaps.
🛠️ Fueling the construction boom are the AI buildout and a fresh push to bring manufacturing facilities onshore and upgrade aging infrastructure.
- A looming retirement wave is coming as demand rises for jobs disproportionately filled by older workers.
⏳ "The world is entering what could be the greatest period of construction in human history," Sandra Lawson, BlackRock managing director of corporate affairs, writes in the new report. "[L]abor could be a potential constraint if the world cannot train workers quickly enough."
- "The infrastructure buildout is creating new demand for jobs in skilled trades, like electricians, HVAC technicians, plumbers and more."
🚧 What to watch: BlackRock says the AI infrastructure boom will require large-scale workforce training.
- But lawmakers have been mostly silent, and Big Tech's upskilling efforts remain early and limited.
4. 👀 Scoop: Israel's top spy in U.S. for Iran talks

The director of Israel's Mossad spy agency, David Barnea, arrived in the U.S. this morning for talks on the situation in Iran, an Israeli source and another source with knowledge of the meeting tell Axios' Barak Ravid.
- Why it matters: Barnea's visit is part of the consultations between the U.S. and Israel over the protests in Iran and possible U.S. military action in response to the regime's crackdown.
🇮🇱 Barnea is expected to meet in Miami with White House envoy Steve Witkoff, who is managing the direct channel with Iran.
5. ⏮️ America's other power booms

The latest boom in power is scrambling our communities, politics and power bills, with big tech companies making promises seeking to ease said scramble, Axios' Amy Harder writes.
- The U.S. has been able to meet soaring electricity demand in decades past at even higher growth rates than experts are predicting now.
💡 Reality check: "The magnitude of current load is far above that of the '70s and '80s," said power expert and consultant Rob Gramlich, president of consulting firm Grid Strategies LLC.
6. ✂️ Stat du jour: Wall Street job purge
The six biggest U.S. banks — JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley — ended 2025 with a combined 1.09 million employees, down about 10,600 year over year, Bloomberg reports (gift link).
- 🏦 That's the group's lowest headcount since 2021 and the largest annual reduction since 2016, when staffing fell by roughly 22,000.
- After hiring aggressively during the pandemic, banks have shiftedto efficiency mode. CEOs are tightening spending and asking how AI might replace humans.
📈 The big picture: "U.S. banking giants boosted their profits in the fourth quarter, buoyed by increasing demand from borrowers that signals the economy is holding up, boding well for lenders' future earnings," Reuters reports.
- Go deeper ... Lead story of today's Wall Street Journal, "Wall Street Powers Nation's Biggest Banks to Record Year" (gift link)
7. 📷 Pic du jour: Trump holds a Nobel

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado said she "presented" President Trump with her Nobel Peace Prize during an Oval Office meeting yesterday.
- Trump, who has publicly campaigned for the prize, wrote on Truth Social: "María presented me with her Nobel Peace Prize for the work I have done. Such a wonderful gesture of mutual respect."
The White House posted the photo above.
8. 🏈 1 sports thing: Commanders go classical

The Washington Commanders unveiled renderings of the stadium planned for the old RFK Stadium site. The white, columned exterior appears to satisfy Trump officials' call for classical features, Axios D.C.'s Anna Spiegel and Cuneyt Dil write.
- The first look from architect HKS shows how the $3.7 billion project could help shape D.C.'s skyline for decades to come.
🏛️ John Onyango, chair of Howard University's architecture department, says the reveal speaks to the zeitgeist:
- RFK was "very brutalist, very heavy, concrete," Onyango says. The new design "is very light, a kind of new formalism" that emerged mid-century and mixes classical elements with modern ones (e.g., the Kennedy Center).

✈️ Another take: "The columns and the curvature you see, there's a nod to Dulles," architect and urbanist Dhiru A. Thadani tells Axios. "It's much more expressive at Dulles, but there's a hint of that."
🏟️ What's next: The design goes through review. The team wants the stadium to open in 2030.
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