Exclusive: BlackRock's new AI warning
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The world is on the cusp of a generation-defining construction boom, but the U.S. may not have enough workers to make it happen, BlackRock warns in a new paper first seen by Axios.
Why it matters: This is the new fault line of the global economy — soaring demand for some workers and shrinking appetite for others. It could result in widening financial gaps in the coming years.
- The world is entering what could be the greatest period of construction in human history — needing as much as $85 trillion in new infrastructure over the next 15 years.
What they're saying: Fueling the construction boom are the AI buildout and a fresh push to bring manufacturing facilities onshore and upgrade aging infrastructure.
- "The world is entering what could be the greatest period of construction in human history," Sandra Lawson, BlackRock managing director of corporate affairs, writes in the new report.
- "[L]abor could be a potential constraint if the world cannot train workers quickly enough," the report says.
The big picture: AI will jolt the white-collar workforce. The scale of disruption is unclear, but early signs of it are underway: Some white-collar employers are rethinking hiring needs as they adopt AI.
- At the same time, blue-collar trades will be more in demand, in part to build the hard assets necessary for the AI era.
By the numbers: "The infrastructure buildout is creating new demand for jobs in skilled trades, like electricians, HVAC technicians, plumbers and more," Lawson writes — the "people with skills and training to design, construct, operate and maintain complex physical assets."
- On average, infrastructure-related jobs are projected to grow 5% in the next 10 years, a growth rate that outpaces the estimated 3% nationwide average over the same period, BlackRock says.
- But even that estimate is probably understated: it crunched those numbers from Bureau of Labor Statistics data produced two years ago.
- The growth rate is likely higher now, "given how quickly demand for AI-related infrastructure has accelerated since these estimates were produced in 2024," BlackRock says.
The other side: Even as demand surges, the labor supply may fall short. A looming retirement wave is coming as demand rises for jobs disproportionately filled by older workers.
Zoom in: Roughly 70% of supervisors in the electrical industry are baby boomers, "meaning the field's most experienced leaders are nearing retirement, leaving fewer available to train the next generation," according to the report.
- Nearly one-fifth of the construction workforce is over age 55, while the median worker is 42 years old.
Threat level: "The additional complexity of AI-related infrastructure makes highly skilled and experienced instructors all the more valuable; the older skew of the workforce makes the timing challenge all the more acute," BlackRock's Lawson writes.
- In some fields, shortages are already here: Construction trade groups say that the immigration crackdowns have resulted in worker shortages and project delays.
- U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement on Wednesday targeted construction workers on their way to a Meta data center in Louisiana, per multiple reports.
The intrigue: The prospect of booming wage growth could help entice younger workers to these positions: "Coming labor shortages, driven by rising demand and retirements, will continue to put upward pressure on wages," the report says.
What to watch: BlackRock says that companies and governments will need to train the workforce necessary for the AI infrastructure boom.
- But lawmakers have largely been mum on the issue. Big Tech's efforts to upskill workers quickly are nascent and often tied to offsetting their own impact on communities disrupted by their energy, water and space-hogging data centers.
- Microsoft said this week it would work with the North America's Building Trades Unions to train electricians on new AI skills.
