Trump's immigration erosion worries his team
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Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and President Trump. Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Michael Gonzalez, Nicole Combeau/Bloomberg, and Mostafa Bassim/Anadolu via Getty Images
President Trump's team recently reviewed private GOP polling that showed support for his immigration policies falling. The results, reflected in public surveys, bolstered internal concern about the administration's confrontational enforcement tactics.
- Now, as the chaotic scenes from Minnesota play out around the clock on TV and social media, Axios has learned that some Trump advisers quietly are talking about "recalibrating" the White House's approach — though it's unclear what changes Trump would embrace, if any.
Why it matters: The worries in part of Trump's brain trust are the first signs of internal second-guessing of his controversial ICE enforcement tactics.
- The private polling suggested a rupturing of the coalition of independent, moderate and minority voters who were key parts of Trump's victory in 2024. Such voters will play a big role in determining whether Republicans keep their slim House majority in November's midterms.
- If Republicans lose the House, Trump will head into his final two years in office as a lame duck who, he acknowledges, could face a third impeachment.
Zoom in: To the degree they support a more constrained approach, some advisers are playing to the president's occasional misgivings about the optics of some ICE tactics.
- "I wouldn't say he's concerned about the policy," a top Trump adviser told Axios. "He wants deportations. He wants mass deportations. What he doesn't want is what people are seeing. He doesn't like the way it looks. It looks bad, so he's expressed some discomfort at that."
- "... [T]here's the right way to do this. And this doesn't look like the right way to a lot of people."
Several Republicans in Congress have expressed concern to the White House about how the raids are playing out, according to a person familiar with the discussions.
- ICE's aggressive tactics are dominating the news and obscuring the White House's work on cost-of-living issues that congressional Republicans, Trump and his team see as more important.
By the numbers: The internal GOP polling that alarmed some Trump insiders was completed at the end of December, days before an ICE agent fatally shot Renee Good in Minneapolis.
- 60% of independent voters and 58% of undecided voters said Trump was "too focused" on deporting illegal immigrants, the poll viewed by Trump's team found.
- 33% said Trump was primarily deporting law-abiding people, as opposed to criminals.
ICE is taking a reputational hit. Two public surveys released this week — one from CNN, another from YouGov — found that most Americans said the agency was making U.S. cities less safe.
- Another poll done for the Associated Press after Good's death found that just 38% of Americans now approve of Trump's immigration policies.
The big picture: ICE's tactics are drawing pushback from some prominent Trump supporters. Joe Rogan, who endorsed Trump on the eve of the 2024 election, complained on his show this week about "militarized groups of people roaming the streets, just showing up with masks on, snatching people up."
- "Are we really going to be the Gestapo?" he asked. "'Where's your papers?' Is that what we've come to?"
Friction point: In its push to fulfill Trump's promise of mass deportations, ICE is not getting help from police in "sanctuary cities" such as Minneapolis and St. Paul, which ban local authorities from engaging in immigration enforcement.
- State and local officials, including Gov. Tim Walz (D), have encouraged peaceful protests.
- "You're only seeing chaotic ICE raids in blue sanctuary cities where local officials are fighting against federal law enforcement," Vice President Vance said Tuesday on X.
Reality check: Publicly, Trump and the White House continue to back an aggressive immigration approach.
- In a Truth Social post Thursday, Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act in Minnesota, which, among other things, could lead to him sending in National Guard troops.
- White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem are architects of the current effort, and they have Trump's support.
- Some Trump allies believe Noem, a former South Dakota governor, is preparing to run for president in 2028 as an immigration hardliner.
What's next: A close White House ally said the administration needs to go beyond pro-Trump outlets such as Fox News to promote positive aspects of Trump's immigration agenda.
- For now, Trump's policy is escalation — sending more federal agents into Minneapolis as Minnesota sues to stop it.
- "President Trump continues to be viewed as a strong leader who keeps the American people safe," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told Axios. "A big reason for that is his law and order agenda and handling of immigration/border security — which remains among his best polling issues with voters."
