Axios AM

March 17, 2025
โ๏ธ Happy St. Patrick's Day! Smart Brevityโข count: 1,891 words ... 7 mins. Thanks to Noah Bressner for orchestrating. Copy edited by Bryan McBournie.
๐ท๐บ Breaking: President Trump told reporters on Air Force One last night that he'll speak with Vladimir Putin tomorrow to reach a 30-day ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine: "We want to see if we can bring that war to an end." More from Barak Ravid.
๐๏ธ At 12:35 a.m., Trump wrote on Truth Social: "The 'Pardons' that Sleepy Joe Biden gave to the Unselect Committee of Political Thugs, and many others, are hereby declared VOID, VACANT, AND OF NO FURTHER FORCE OR EFFECT, because of the fact that they were done by Autopen."
- ๐ค The autopen issue โ about former President Biden's frequent use of a mechanical signature โ exploded on X and in MAGA media after a March 6 thread on X by the Heritage Foundation's Oversight Project.
1 big thing: Trump's new court showdowns

The Trump administration says it didn't turn around two planeloads of alleged Venezuelan gang members after a court order Saturday because the flights were over international waters and therefore the ruling didn't apply, two senior officials tell Axios' Marc Caputo.
- Why it matters: The administration's decision to keep the planes flying, despite the federal judge's order, is exceedingly rare and is expected to touch off a wider legal fight.
โก After Caputo's story posted, Charlie Kirk, one of the most influential MAGA media stars, wrote on X: "A long overdue standoff with rogue district court judges appears to finally be underway."
โ๏ธ "This is headed to the Supreme Court. And we're going to win," a senior White House official told Axios.
- A second administration official said Trump wasn't defying the judge, whose ruling came too late for the planes to change course: "Very important that people understand we are not actively defying court orders."
๐ Zoom in: Trump's advisers contend U.S. District Judge James Boasberg overstepped his authority by issuing an order that blocked the president from deporting about 250 alleged Tren de Aragua gang members under the Alien Enemies Act of 1789.
- The war-time law gives the executive extreme immense power to deport noncitizens without a judicial hearing. But it has been little used, particularly in peacetime.
- "It's the showdown that was always going to happen between the two branches of government," a senior White House official said. "And it seemed that this was pretty clean. You have Venezuelan gang members ... These are bad guys, as the president would say."

How it happened: White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller "orchestrated" the process in the West Wing in tandem with Homeland Security Secretary Kristy Noem. Few outside their teams knew what was happening.
- They didn't actually set out to defy a court order. "We wanted them on the ground first, before a judge could get the case, but this is how it worked out," said the official.
Inside the White House, officials discussed whether to order the planes to turn around. On advice from a team of administration lawyers, the administration pressed ahead.
- "There was a discussion about how far the judge's ruling can go under the circumstances and over international waters and, on advice of counsel, we proceeded with deporting these thugs," the senior official said.
- "They were already outside of U.S. airspace. We believe the order is not applicable," a second senior administration official told Axios.

๐ Between the lines: The Trump White House wants to shift the argument to whether it was right to expel alleged members of Tren de Aragua.
- "If the Democrats want to argue in favor of turning a plane full of rapists, murderers, and gangsters back to the United States, that's a fight we are more than happy to take," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told Axios when asked about the case.
- Leavitt later said: "A single judge in a single city cannot direct the movements of an aircraft carrier full of foreign alien terrorists who were physically expelled from U.S. soil."
2. โ๏ธ Trump sets up historic battle
The Trump administration's moves to deport Columbia University protest leader Mahmoud Khalil have set up a historic court battle over whether the U.S. government can remove legal residents as national security risks for what they say, Axios' Russell Contreras and Brittany Gibson write.
- Why it matters: If President Trump is successful, legal analysts say, future administrations could deport legal immigrants for any political or religious speech the administration dislikes.
Think of the possibilities: If Trump is successful, a future Democratic administration could, theoretically, cite national security concerns to remove green card holders like right-leaning Chinese immigrants.
๐ญ Zoom in: Both sides of the Khalil case think it could wind up before the Supreme Court, where the Trump administration is eager to win approval for various deportation strategies.
- A win in court could give the Trump administration โ specifically Secretary of State Marco Rubio โ a chance to launch deportations based on speech activities of the 13 million or so green card holders in the U.S.
P.S. A kidney transplant specialist and doctor at Brown University's medical school was deported from the country despite a court order blocking her removal, the N.Y. Times reports. (Gift link.)
3. ๐ Delays for Apple's AI
Apple's acknowledgment that AI enhancements to Siri are taking longer than expected has increased concern that the iPhone maker is falling further behind in what is shaping up to be a tectonic shift for the tech industry, Axios AI+ author Ina Fried writes.
- Why it matters: When it announced Apple Intelligence last June, Apple was already trailing major competitors in outlining its AI strategy.
Apple confirmed earlier this month that the enhanced Siri was taking longer than expected, with features that were due imminently now expected to arrive "in the coming year."
๐ Between the lines: While Apple has shipped the first pieces of Apple Intelligence, what has yet to arrive are the components that really made the strategy compelling โ the notion of combining AI smarts with personal data in a secure and privacy-preserving way.
- The features that Apple has delivered โ custom emoji, Image Playground, writing help and ChatGPT integration โ fit more in the nice-to-have bucket. And in some cases, those features still lag behind what's available from others.
The features that are delayed are the ones that generated the most excitement during last year's demo.
- For example, Apple showed Siri answering "When does my mom's flight land?" by drawing upon various pieces of knowledge across the system within multiple apps.
4. ๐ฐ Bessent market math


Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent broke with orthodoxy yesterday when he said corrections in stocks were "healthy" and an antidote to "euphoric" market action, Axios' Ben Berkowitz writes.
- The big picture: Over the long run, he's not necessarily wrong.
Bessent told Kristen Welker on NBC's "Meet the Press": "I've been in the investment business for 35 years. And I can tell you that corrections are healthy. They're normal. What's not healthy is straight-up โ that is, euphoric markets. That's how you get a financial crisis."
- "It would have been healthier if someone had put the brakes on in '06-'07. We wouldn't have had the problems in '08. So, I'm not worried about the markets. Over the long term, if we put good tax policy in place, deregulation, and energy security, the markets will do great." (Full transcript)
Zoom in: Corrections, or a 10% decline in the market from its recent peak, are pretty common.
- They've happened dozens of times in the S&P 500 in recent decades, most recently starting last Thursday.
๐งฎ By the numbers: In a correction, on average the market takes five months to fall from peak to bottom, and then four months to bounce back, according to Clearnomics data shared by Covenant Wealth Advisors.
- After that, markets tend to rise strongly.
- On average, between 1997 and 2020, stocks were up 32% one year after a correction, per data from Gateway Financial Advisors.
Reality check: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
5. ๐ MAGA push to pardon Derek Chauvin

Prominent supporters of President Trump โ led by podcaster Ben Shapiro โ are fueling a major push to pardon Derek Chauvin, the white former Minnesota police officer convicted of killing George Floyd in 2020, writes Tal Axelrod, Axios' MAGA media expert.
- Why it matters: Pardoning Chauvin would keep with MAGA's own-the-libs and anti-social justice mentality.
The big picture: A Trump pardon would only affect Chauvin's federal case, where he pleaded guilty, and not the state case.
- The state conviction carries a longer sentence (22.5 years) than the federal case, meaning he would still be in prison even if the president acts.
๐๏ธ Zoom in: Shapiro, whose podcast episodes often break the Top 10 on Apple, launched the campaign early this month with a petition to convince Trump to issue the pardon. Shapiro has long dismissed the existence of systemic racism.
- Earlier this month, Trump said he hadn't heard of the push to pardon Chauvin. Shapiro's petition has passed 50,000 signatures. He's launching a five-part docuseries, "The Case for Derek Chauvin," on his show tomorrow.
- Shapiro claims Chauvin was unjustly convicted and that Floyd's death was caused by underlying health issues and drug use.
Reality check: A medical examiner who performed Floyd's autopsy testified in the 2021 murder trial that Floyd died due to loss or deprivation of oxygen caused by the neck restraint placed on him by the police.
๐ฃ Elon Musk posted that Shapiro's pardon push is "something to think about." Charlie Kirk hosted Shapiro on his podcast in a show of support for the effort.
- Shapiro tells Axios: "[I]f you actually do want to get a pardon for somebody, then typically you have to build a groundswell of support for that to become a political reality,"
6. ๐ฎ๐ฑ Netanyahu firing intel chief

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has decided to remove the head of the country's domestic security agency and will seek cabinet approval for the move this week, Axios' Barak Ravid writes.
- Why it matters: No government has ever fired the head of the Shin Bet, Israel's most powerful security agency.
7. ๐ธ Pope's first photo in a month

The Vatican released the first photograph of Pope Francis in more than a month yesterday. The pontiff is shown in a three-quarter view from behind sitting in a wheelchair before the altar of his personal hospital chapel.
- He was celebrating Mass with other priests in the 10th-floor papal apartment in the Gemelli hospital in Rome.
8. ๐ 1 hoop thing: Madness tips off

March Madness brackets were unveiled on Selection Sunday, with Auburn securing the overall No. 1 seed for the men's tournament and UCLA snagging the spot for the women's.
- Finalize your brackets before the men's first round starts at 12:15 p.m. ET Thursday. Women's brackets are due Friday.
๐ฎ Men's Final Four projection, from AP basketball writer Tim Reynolds: Michigan State vs. St. John's ... Duke vs. Gonzaga. The road ends: Michigan State vs. Duke in the final on Monday, April 7, at the Alamodome in San Antonio. Duke wins it all!
- Women's Final Four picks: UCLA vs. UConn and Notre Dame vs. South Carolina. For the trophy: UConn vs. South Carolina on Sunday, April 6, in Tampa. UConn wins their 12th women's title.
How to win your pool: Men ... Women ... Printable bracket: Men ... Women.
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