Vice President Harris, hoping to distance herself from President Biden's unpopularity on the economy, plans a new focus on middle-class worries and woes, Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei write in a "Behind the Curtain" column.

• Why it matters: Beginning in North Carolina later this week with her first policy speech, and continuing next week with the Democratic convention in Chicago, Harris will tell Americans — most for the first time —who she is and how she'd govern.

Harris won't say it this bluntly in public, but her advisers do so privately: She wants to break with Biden on issues on which he's unpopular. First up: rising prices. This is part of a highly choreographed effort to define herself — in some cases, redefine herself — as a different kind of Democrat. 

• On Friday in Raleigh, she'll outline plans to lower costs of health care, housing and food for middle-class consumers, and tell how she'll "take on corporate price-gouging."

Harris was jazzed by a Financial Times poll this week showing her more trusted than former President Trump on the economy.

• Now, she wants to be not-Biden on inflation — arguably the biggest domestic topic of this campaign — by proposing clearer, more urgent solutions.

🖼️ The big picture: Harris doesn't want to be completely defined by the Biden-Harris record, advisers tell us. And she needs some distance: 80% of U.S. adults in Gallup polling say they're dissatisfied with the country's direction.

• She also wants a clean break from Biden's often-backward-looking lens on democracy and other issues. Harris, a California native who came up through Golden State politics, wants to carve out her own innovation agenda and will brand it with a generic, look-ahead spin: "Win the future."
• Tomorrow afternoon, Harris will appear with Biden in Prince George's County, Md., at an event on lowering costs for Americans — their first joint trip since he bowed out of the race 24 days ago.

A big part of the Harris plan is to unapologetically change some of her more liberal positions, and claim her White House experience helped change her mind. Yes, when she was running for president in 2019, she was against fracking, for decriminalizing illegal border crossings, and for single-payer health care (Medicare for All).

• No more. She has backed off all three.

She's also fine plucking popular Trump ideas, notably "no tax on tips" for service and hospitality workers — popular in Nevada, one of the biggest swing states.

A big and fair question is: What does Harris really believe?

• Her bet: whatever she says in the small, three-month window of her snap campaign will be what sticks. Harris knows most people know little about her. So she believes she can define herself, even if it includes flip-flops and co-opts.
• "She can't break the glass ceiling with a weak foundation," Donna Brazile, a former Democratic National Committee chairwoman who has known Harris since the vice president was an up-and-coming D.A. in San Francisco. "She knows she has to be tough."

What we're hearing: We're told Harris wants to be seen as the change agent in the race.

• Her emphasis on the cost of groceries is meant to signal she can better relate to typical households than Trump.

Look for Harris to emphasize her record as a prosecutor, including settlements she won in price-fixing cases as California attorney general.

• Later, she'll present plans to help entrepreneurs and small businesses.

Context: Harris has said at rallies that fighting inflation will be a Day 1 priority, and that strengthening the middle class would be a defining goal of her presidency.

• She often says prices are too high. Biden has taken on shrinkflation and hidden "junk fees" that plague consumers and travelers. Just this week, the White House unveiled plans to "Lower Costs for Families and Fight Corporate Rip-Offs."

The backstory: In ads and her stump speeches, Harris emphasizes her middle-class roots — the daughter of a working mother who didn't own a home until Harris was in high school.

• A new Harris video notes she worked at a McDonald's while she attended Howard University.

Ashley Etienne, Harris' first communications director as vice president, said Harris was the first person she heard talking about the sandwich generation — younger adults caring for both kids and aging parents.

• "I realized that was me," Etienne said. "She has the ability to see people who've been lost by the system."

⏰ Reality check: The knock on Harris by some former staffers is she can overthink things to the point of exhaustion — and confusion.

• So it's not always clear what core, unbendable beliefs animate her. No doubt, she was a liberal in the Senate and during her failed 2019 presidential campaign. But her new persona and policy shifts suggest a repositioning to the center of the modern Democratic Party. Basically, she's a Biden Democrat — even if she hopes to downplay that in some areas.

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Gender is rapidly becoming one of the starkest divisions in American politics, Axios' Erica Pandey writes.

• Why it matters: Young men and women used to have similar voting habits. But over the last two decades, women have been moving steadily left and men, right.

That's making it an easy strategy for each side to pick a gender to court.

• "The Democrats try to win as the women's party, and the Republicans try to win as the men's party," says Richard V. Reeves, founding president of the new research group American Institute for Boys and Men (AIBM).

During a news conference last week, Trump said he's "way up" with white males, but "it could be that I'll be affected somewhat with Black females."

• Trump is appearing on podcasts popular among young men, and did a two-hour interview with Elon Musk on X this week. Harris' campaign is leaning into memes that appeal to young women.

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Preliminary data from major U.S. cities shows homicides were down during the first six months of President Biden's last year in office compared to the same period of Donald Trump's presidency, Axios' Russell Contreras writes.

• Why it matters: The big drop — more than 70% in some places — is further evidence that the COVID-era crime wave continues to recede in most major cities despite claims by President Trump that violent crime is out of control.

🧮 By the numbers: An Axios analysis of data from the Major Cities Chiefs Association found a 13% decline in homicides among 66 cities during the first six months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2020.

• Boston experienced an 80% drop in homicides compared to the same period. Philadelphia saw a 70% decrease.
• Baltimore saw a 45% fall in homicides. Miami experienced a 29% drop.

Reality check: Some notable cities have seen surges in homicides during the same period.

• Portland, Ore., experienced a 278% surge in homicides.
• In Seattle, homicides ballooned 59%.
• In Las Vegas, homicides grew by 55%.

Caveat: The Major Cities Chiefs Association data didn't include New York, since the nation's largest city didn't submit violent crime numbers to the organization for the first half of 2024.

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A surprise Ukrainian offensive is reportedly forcing Russia to pull some troops out of Ukraine to defend a new front line on its own territory, Axios' Ivana Saric writes.

• Why it matters: The daring incursion has provided a much-needed morale boost for Ukrainian forces — and is yet another instance of Vladimir Putin's invasion spinning out of his control.

Ukraine launched its offensive last week and has seized almost 400 square miles of Russian territory so far, Ukraine's top military commander said.

• The offensive is a major embarrassment for the Kremlin, which seems to have been caught by surprise.

Kyiv will likely find the territory it has taken hard to defend — and is taking big risks by pushing troops and heavy weaponry into Russia.

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A group of novel defense contractors — fueled by software and outside expertise, and hungry for big-money contracts — is finding traction, Axios Future of Defense author Colin Demarest writes.

• Why it matters: The Pentagon's inability to make unorthodox bets has rendered it under-supplied and vulnerable to more nimble adversaries.

Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said last week that the Pentagon "cannot tolerate the same old mindsets" as it competes with China and Russia.

• Pentagon chief tech officer Heidi Shyu separately called the pace of "nontraditional, venture-backed companies" entering the defense industry unprecedented: "They're nipping at the heels, I tell you. I have traditional defense contractors say: 'Hey, this isn't fair.'"

Reality check: Progress is easily undone — especially by a new administration, and a lumbering bureaucracy happy to revert to tradition.

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Americans born to low-income families are faring worse than the last generation in most major U.S. cities, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick and Kavya Beheraj write from a new Opportunity Atlas analysis.

• Why it matters: Intergenerational mobility — the idea that you'll do better than your parents — is core to the American dream. But it's far from a guarantee.

🔬 Zoom in: In 38 of the 50 biggest U.S. metro areas, Americans born to low-income families in 1992 were doing worse at age 27 than those born in 1978 at that age.

• Brownsville, Texas, had the biggest increase in upward mobility across generations.
• Philadelphia had the biggest drop.

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Wyoming — a leading coal mining state — has been morphing into a key place to develop next-gen climate technologies such as carbon removal, nuclear and wind, Katie Fehrenbacher writes for Axios Pro: Climate Deals.

• Wyoming still gets 71% of its electricity from coal. But Republican Gov. Mark Gordon has pledged to help the state go carbon-negative to fight climate change.

The goal has sometimes made him unpopular with his GOP peers.

• His vision is to use carbon capture tech as a means to get there instead of shutting down coal plants.

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The early Halloween push known as Summerween is making way for "Augtober" and the pumpkin spice season, Axios' Kelly Tyko writes.

• Axios has spotted Chobani pumpkin spice yogurt and creamers, pumpkin spice Cheerios and pumpkin beer.

7-Eleven kicked off the season two weeks ago with the return of pumpkin coffee and a new pumpkin-flavored Slurpee.

• Krispy Kreme's pumpkin spice cake doughnut and pumpkin spice latte returned Monday.

👀 What we're watching: Starbucks and Dunkin' pumpkin products are available in grocery stores. But the chains haven't announced when their fall menus will start.

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