Axios AM

March 20, 2025
💐 Welcome to spring! The vernal equinox arrived this morning. And March Madness (First Round/Round of 64) tips off at 12:15 p.m. ET! Schedule.
- Smart Brevity™ count: 1,996 words ... 7½ mins. Thanks to Noah Bressner for orchestrating. Copy edited by Bryan McBournie.
🎒 Situational awareness: During a big event at 4 p.m. in the East Room, President Trump will sign an executive order to begin dismantling the Education Department. Congress would need to approve a full shutdown.
- A White House fact sheet says the order directs Education Secretary Linda McMahon "to take all necessary steps to facilitate the closure of the Department of Education and return education authority to the States, while continuing to ensure the effective and uninterrupted delivery of services, programs, and benefits on which Americans rely." Go deeper.
1 big thing: Trump's mind control
To fully appreciate President Trump's mesmerizing control over Republicans, consider their scant public dissent over ideas many of them privately disdain:
- Support for Vladimir Putin.
- Support for on-again, off-again tariffs, and a worsening economy.
- Support Elon Musk's haphazard budget-cutting.
- Making Canada the 51st state.
- Pardoning most Jan. 6 defendants.
Why it matters: It's the worst-kept secret in town. Most elected Republicans are staying silent on issues they find dubious, dumb or destructive, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write in a "Behind the Curtain" column.
In private, they're more forthcoming about their concerns and their mixed motivations for zipping their lips — genuine support for Trump and genuine fear of crossing him.
- Almost universally, Republicans have convinced themselves that by winning a second time, Trump earned whatever Cabinet he wants, and the freedom to pursue the policies of his choice.
They see no upside — or good reason — to oppose him because Trump, Musk and others would torch them publicly and on social media, and almost certainly threaten a primary challenge.
- Just ask Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), who faced constant harassment back home for merely raising questions about Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth. She wound up voting to confirm him.
- Or Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who voted to confirm Hegseth after getting the Ernst treatment and threatened with a primary challenge. Tillis has gotten repeated death threats since the election.
- Or the exception, Rep. Tom Massie (R-Ky.): Trump has threatened him with a primary challenge for being "an automatic 'NO' vote on just about everything." But Massie continues to vote against Trump priorities, and recently wrote on X: "POTUS is spending his day attacking me and Canada. The difference is Canada will eventually cave."
🐘 Most GOP lawmakers dutifully defend things they might ridicule if they were done by a Democrat or weaker Republican.
- This ritual plays out all day, every day on X and cable news. Republicans pick up tricks from each other to duck and weave, or simply defend things they might find intellectually indefensible.
- "It's part of the gig, right?" said Rep. Blake Moore of Utah, vice chair of the House Republican Conference. "I haven't been asked about a Trump tweet in a while."
🏛️ Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) — an outlier in the GOP who's an actual fan of tariffs — called the Republican chorus "an acquiescence to reality."
- Hawley says that although there are plenty of Republicans who don't like tariffs or Trump's approach to Ukraine, "I haven't heard what the alternatives would be."
- "He's the undisputed leader of the party," Hawley added. "I think people are, like: 'OK, let's give him a shot' — even those who probably, privately, would do it differently."
Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) — who endorsed Trump back in early 2016, when Cramer was a House member — told Axios' Stef Kight that when Trump won the popular vote, Americans "signed off on his broader plan — and the things he's been doing are things he said he was going to do."
- "At this point, this early, we're best to let him do it and see how it turns out," Cramer said. "I think he needs a little room and some time ... to change big things in a short time. ... We've learned not to so quickly second-guess him. His instincts are often right — usually right."
One popular trick: Quietly articulate your differing views back home, without even the mildest hint of criticizing Trump.
- Another tactic is to deflect and express outrage, as several Republicans have done when questioned about the administration ignoring a judge's order while deporting two planeloads of alleged Venezuelan gang members: "So you want murderers and rapists to stay in the U.S.?"
The bottom line: Politics is all about incentives. And every Republican incentive is to back Trump — and make sure he and MAGA media know it.
- Share this column ... Stef Kight and Andrew Solender contributed reporting.
🧠 Get regular mindmelds from Mike & Jim: Subscribe to our Axios AM Executive Briefing.
2. 🦾 Nvidia to spend hundreds of billions in U.S.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said in a Financial Times interview that his company will spend hundreds of billions of dollars on chips and other electronics manufactured in the U.S. over the next four years.
Why it matters: The semiconductor giant — which surged last year to become one of the world's top most valuable companies amid the AI frenzy — is tilting its supply chain back from Asia in the face of tariff threats.
- It's another win for President Trump's push to increase U.S. manufacturing, with a parade of corporations announcing American expansion.
"Overall, we will procure, over the course of the next four years, probably half a trillion dollars' worth of electronics in total," Huang told the FT. "[W]e can easily see ourselves manufacturing several hundred billion of it here in the U.S."
3. 🧀 Scoop: Musk PAC's Wisconsin playbook
Elon Musk has spent millions on the race for a single seat on Wisconsin's Supreme Court. Now the billionaire's PAC is offering the GOP candidate free advice: Get Trumpier, Axios' Marc Caputo reports.
- Why it matters: The April 1 Wisconsin contest is a nationalized proxy fight between the parties and their billionaire benefactors — and a first referendum on President Trump.
It's the first major election of Trump's second term, and could decide the balance of power on the swing state's highest court.
- For Democrats, election is a way to harness anger at Trump.
- For Republicans, it's a test of trying to turn out Trump voters when he's not on the ballot.

🗳️ The court election will determine the tilt of an ideologically divided bench — in a purple state where state-level decisions carry national implications for abortion rights, legislative redistricting and election laws.
- If Republican Brad Schimel wins, the seven-member court will have a conservative majority until at least 2026.
- If Democrat Susan Crawford wins, the court will have a liberal majority until at least 2028. Liberals have held the majority on the Wisconsin court since 2023.
What Democrats are saying: Mike Tate, former Wisconsin Democratic Party chair, told Axios via email: "MAGA only wins elections when Trump is on the ballot."
4. 💵 DOGE's risky target
In less than two weeks, Social Security is set to enact major changes that threaten to upend services for many Americans — in order to fight fraud that amounts to a fraction of 1% of the agency's spending, Axios' Emily Peck writes.
- Why it matters: Social Security Administration veterans and powerful lobbying groups warn the changes, implemented at breakneck speed, might foment more swindling.
The agency's internal documents caution the changes will effectively cut some Americans off from receiving benefits.
- Former officials say the changes will overwhelm the agency's already stretched resources, with staffing at a record low and America's aging population rapidly rising.
🔬 Zoom in: Acting commissioner Lee Dudek said Tuesday that $100 million is lost each year to direct deposit fraud. To address it, the agency is curtailing phone services.
- Effective March 31, Americans won't be able to call and sign up for Social Security benefits or make major changes to their accounts that require ID verification.
- They either must use the internet or visit a field office — not easy options for many on Social Security.
🧮 By the numbers: $100 million in fraud represents about 0.00625% of the $1.6 trillion Social Security sends out each year.
5. 😞 Charted: Record-low happiness

The U.S. fell to its lowest-ever ranking on the annual World Happiness Report — out last night, Axios' Ivana Saric writes.
- Why it matters: Young people under 30 are driving the downward shift.
🌐 By the numbers: The U.S. ranked 24th in this year's report, one spot lower than last year.
- The number of young people who said they believe they have the freedom to choose what to do with their lives fell 10 points between 2020 and 2024.
😎 The winners: The Nordic countries continue to rank among the happiest in the world — with Finland, Denmark, Iceland and Sweden claiming the top four slots.
6. 🤖 AI's copyright clash
A sharp divide over whether AI engines should be able to freely use copyrighted material has emerged as a key issue in the White House call for suggestions on national AI strategy, Axios' Ina Fried writes.
- Why it matters: Copyright infringement claims were among the first legal challenges following ChatGPT's launch, with multiple lawsuits now winding their way through the courts.
OpenAI and Google argue in their filings that being able to use copyrighted material is a matter of national security, saying that if they can't train on this material, Chinese companies will have an unfair advantage.
- "If the [Chinese] developers have unfettered access to data and American companies are left without fair use access, the race for AI is effectively over," OpenAI said in its filing.
The other side: Groups representing actors, filmmakers and publishers (among other creative professionals) used their filings, public statements and editorials to reject those arguments.
7. 🍿 Snacking recession
Americans are snacking less — and that's a problem for the packaged food industry, Axios Closer author Nathan Bomey writes.
- Why it matters: After years of inflation, consumers are recoiling, fed up with food price increases and suddenly immersed in economic uncertainty.
General Mills has become the latest food giant to sound the alarm about what CEO Jeff Harmening called a "slowdown in snacking."
- The company's net sales fell 5% in its latest quarter, with U.S. snacks sales down "mid-single digits."
🍩 Zoom in: Other signs of a snacking slowdown:
- J.M. Smucker's sales of sweet baked snacks fell 7% in the company's most recent quarter.
- Campbell's Company CEO Mick Beekhuizen noted "softness in some of our snacking categories" earlier this month.
- Sales fell 4.3% for U.S. convenience stores in the year ended Feb. 23, according to Circana, a market-research firm cited by The Wall Street Journal.
The intrigue: The rise of weight-loss drugs is causing people to snack less — but only a smidge, most execs say.
- General Mills' CEO noted on an earnings call that the company even experienced a decline in sales of dog snacks — "and to my knowledge, there is not GLP-1s for dog treats."
8. 🥡 1 food thing: Death of the doggy bag

Restaurateurs in New York are observing a surprising shift in behavior:
- "Diners seem increasingly uninterested in asking for boxes to take home leftovers," the N.Y. Times' Alyson Krueger writes.
Why it matters: Restaurateurs say the decline comes down to "social stigmas, the ease of ordering takeout and a return to sharing food after the pandemic made doing so taboo."
🍕 Zoom in: Emmett Burke, who owns two Chicago-style pizzerias in Manhattan, says three-quarters of his customers don't box up leftovers.
- He says young people are more likely to leave behind food.
💰 Money quote: Families tend to take home food. "But if it's a guy and a girl, and it looks like they are on a date, they will order a lot, but they won't finish anything," Jenn Saesue, a co-owner of Fish Cheeks and Bangkok Supper Club, Thai restaurants in Manhattan. "And they won't take it home."
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