Axios' Marc Caputo and Barak Ravid bring us this intel from inside the White House:

As President Trump tries to hammer out a peace deal with Iran, he has a dovish adviser in Vice President Vance perched on one figurative shoulder — and a hawkish Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the other.

• Why it matters: The success of the talks — and therefore the health of global oil markets — greatly depends on how well Trump deploys each man to balance competing interests in Iran, Israel and Lebanon.

A top Trump adviser told us: "Think of Marco and JD as aspects of the president's personality and policy. There's a more pro-Israel aspect of it, and that's Rubio. And there's a more Israel-skeptic aspect. That's JD."

🔎 Zoom in: Vance and Rubio differed during internal deliberations about the landmark June 17 memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the U.S. and Iran.

• Vance negotiated the deal with Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The VP thought Trump should sign off to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and stabilize the economy ahead of the midterms, according to several U.S. sources.
• Rubio, with CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, was skeptical of the MOU and the chances it could lead to a comprehensive nuclear deal.

Between the lines: The negotiations are complex because they're trilateral, involving Israel, Iran and Lebanon. They include three agreements:

1. The MOU signed on June 17 between Iran and the U.S.
2. A June 21 agreement Vance struck with Iran in Switzerland concerning Lebanon.
3. A peace framework, shepherded by Rubio, signed Friday by Israel and Lebanon.

Friction point: On Rubio's track, the parties worked to block Iran from interfering in Lebanon. But Vance's track gave the Iranians a say in the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which the U.S. classifies as an Iran-backed terrorist group.

• The two tracks collided. Hezbollah and its allies in Lebanon were furious, declared Rubio's deal null and void, and demanded that the parties abide by the U.S.–Iran MOU negotiated by Vance.
• Said another U.S. official, playing down the situation: "To the Iranians, the deals conflict. To us, they do not. It depends on how you interpret those clauses."

👀 The intrigue: U.S. officials say the result of the Iran negotiations could have domestic political implications — especially for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.

• One U.S. official said Rubio didn't take the front seat in the Iran negotiations for a reason: "He is waiting to see if Vance self-destructs."
• But another senior U.S. official called that characterization "boneheaded and wrong. Both Marco and JD are executing the president's will."

White House principal deputy press secretary Anna Kelly said: "There is one camp — President Trump's camp — and the entire administration is fully behind the president's efforts to ensure Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon."

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Today's AI buildout resembles earlier technological revolutions and capital booms that ended in painful busts.

• That's the new warning from the Bank for International Settlements, a top forum known as the "central bank for central banks."

Why it matters: The technological revolutions that transform the economy have a long history of attracting more investment than near-term returns justify, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes.

• AI could follow that pattern at a moment when the global economy is unusually reliant on a single investment boom to keep the expansion on track.

🔬 Zoom in: Some of the world's greatest technological breakthroughs — canals, railroads, the internet — sparked enormous investment booms, with capital pouring into new infrastructure years before the payoff became clear.

• If returns disappoint, today's surge in AI spending could become "a protracted investment bust" and spark a stock-market correction that could stunt worldwide growth, the BIS said.

💰 Stunning stat: The five biggest "hyperscalers" are expected to invest more than $1 trillion from 2025 through 2026, the Financial Times notes.

• Keep reading.

The Supreme Court this term gave President Trump powers over the federal government that no modern president has held, Axios' Courtenay Brown and Andrew Pantazi write.

• But it blocked his administration on two of the biggest issues for markets: the Fed and tariffs.

Why it matters: The rulings hand the president firmer command of the bureaucracy, pulling back only where investors worried political interference could unsettle markets.

🔭 Zoom in: Case by case, the court gave Trump a freer hand to fire, deport and act before judges could catch up.

• The court gave his administration major immigration wins, including on asylum access and temporary protected status.
• It repeatedly sided with Trump on emergency appeals, letting contested policies take effect while litigation continued.
• It also let him fire Federal Trade Commission officials at will, making it harder for Congress to create independent agencies outside direct White House control.

At the same time, the court ruled against him in two high-stakes fights:

• The Fed: It denied his bid to immediately fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, ruling he must first clear the legal hurdles Congress put in place.
• Tariffs: It found he couldn't use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping tariffs, eliminating one of his fastest and broadest trade tools.

🥊 Reality check: The rulings haven't ended either battle.

• The White House has continued to pursue tariffs through other legal authorities after losing that case.
• Trump has said his administration will keep investigating whether it can ultimately remove Cook.

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Bitcoin is down 43.7% over the past year and now trades below its level on Election Day 2024 — before it rallied on President Trump's pledge to make America the world's "crypto capital."

• The token has shed more than half its value since hitting an all-time high of $126,080 in October.

Between the lines: Michael Saylor's Strategy Inc. — a major crypto holder — announced plans to sell as much as $1.25 billion worth of the coin.

• Saylor was famous in the crypto community for his "never sell" mantra.

Happening today: House Democrats are watching with trepidation as another veteran colleague tries to fend off a left-wing challenger in Colorado primaries, Axios' Andrew Solender writes.

• Why it matters: The race will help reveal whether the big antiestablishment victories in New York last week were one-offs or a sign of the new normal for longtime Democratic incumbents.

Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.), who has held her Denver-based House seat since 1997, faces one of the most serious challenges of her decades-long political career.

• Her opponent — attorney and Ph.D. student Melat Kiros, a 29-year-old Democratic Socialists of America member backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) — was born the same year that DeGette, 68, first took office.

Share this story ... 5 things to watch in Colorado, by Axios Denver's John Frank.

The CEOs lost this one: New government data shows 35% of U.S. workers did some or all of their work at home last year — significantly higher than in the previous decade, Axios' Emily Peck writes.

• In 2019, only 24% of workers did some or all of their work from home. By 2022, that number had risen to 34% and has held relatively steady since.

Keep reading.

This map shows a dangerous heat wave building across the U.S. and creeping east ahead of the holiday weekend.

• More than 160 million Americans — about half the country — are under a heat advisory, watch or warning.

The National Weather Service warns that the extreme heat will peak in the Midwest with triple-digit temperatures from today through Thursday. Then it slides into the East for July Fourth.

• Go deeper: What's causing the heat wave.

All four matches in the World Cup's knockout stage so far have been won in the final minutes or on penalties:

• Paraguay beat Germany 4-3 on penalties yesterday to earn the biggest upset of the tournament and send the 2014 champions home.
• In the earliest-ever World Cup exit for the Netherlands, Morocco's leading scorer Ismael Saibari netted the decisive goal in a penalty shootout after a 1-1 draw last night in Guadalupe (near Monterrey), Mexico. Keep reading.
• Brazil came from behind to beat Japan 2-1 with a dramatic goal in the 96th minute.
• Canada opened the round a day earlier with a 1-0 win over South Africa on a 90th-minute goal.

📺 Today's schedule for the round of 32: Ivory Coast vs. Norway (1 p.m. ET) ... France vs. Sweden (5 p.m.) ... Mexico vs. Ecuador (9 p.m.).