U.S. intelligence finds Iran has "substantially increased" its efforts to target American diplomats and officials in the Middle East and beyond, with lethal plots reaching "advanced stages," according to a memo yesterday to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, obtained by Axios' Barak Ravid.

• Why it matters: This is more evidence the war is likely to escalate after midterms on Nov. 3, 10 days from now. News of the memo exploded across the internet after Axios posted it last night, with media coverage worldwide.

U.S. officials say the intelligence is one reason the State Department is drawing down personnel at American embassies across the Middle East, amid mounting fears of a broader regional conflict.

• U.S. officials also fear that Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen could expand their attacks beyond Saudi Arabia to other countries in the region.
• Adding to the volatile security environment is the prospect of renewed U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran, potentially after the midterm elections.

President Trump said at a rally in Fort Myers, Fla., yesterday: "We may do another little Operation Epic Fury" unless the Iranians "will agree" to a deal.

• "If they're smart, they will just say: 'Let's get down to business.' But I doubt they will do that because perhaps they're not smart."

✈️ State of play: Earlier this week, the State Department ordered family members and nonessential personnel to leave the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh and consulates in Jeddah and Dhahran.

• Yesterday, the department also ordered reductions in U.S. diplomatic and government personnel at embassies in the UAE, Lebanon, Qatar and Jordan, a U.S. official said.

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Washington has always viewed Silicon Valley as culturally strange. But lawmakers and White House advisers see the current crop of AI leaders as a monumental political liability, Axios' Maria Curi and Stef W. Kight report.

• Why it matters: Even pro-AI government officials and lawmakers wish AI founders would do what every other major industry chief does — put a sock in it and just build their products ... safely.

🚨 State of play: Rather than leading the charge to persuade Americans about the benefits of AI and the potential for shared prosperity — core elements of a winning campaign — industry leaders constantly warn of existential dangers.

• Lawmakers say the message from AI execs too often alternates between prosperity and doom, sometimes in the same public appearances.

🏛️ The whiplash adds to political instability in the face of an already powerful public backlash, lawmakers and regulators tell us:

• Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah) told Axios: "It's obvious that they're tripping over their own shoelaces in trying to sell the value of this to the public."
• Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who represents part of Silicon Valley, told Axios: "You cannot trust billionaires to make decisions to keep us safe."
• Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) complained about "panic-inducing commentary" in a letter to Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei earlier this month: "Your instinct is to wreak havoc on the ... discourse."
• Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) told Axios: "Democrats need to make the AI industry's political money an issue, data centers an issue, and go on offense to protect workers and kids."

👀 Between the lines: Friday night news dumps and consequential weekend blog posts have become bread and butter for Anthropic and OpenAI.

• Regulators are left wondering whether that's a feature or a bug: deliberate attempts to quietly course-correct damaging narratives ahead of IPOs, or the work of inexperienced teams struggling to navigate Washington.

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President Trump has endorsed Benjamin Netanyahu in Tuesday's Israeli election. But some Trump advisers see opportunity for his Middle East agenda in a government led by someone else, U.S. officials tell Axios' Barak Ravid.

• Why it matters: Trump has never worked with an Israeli prime minister other than Netanyahu, and doesn't personally know any of the other candidates. The two have forged a close but often turbulent relationship.
• "He's the devil he knows," a Trump adviser said, describing the president's view of Netanyahu.

⚡ Driving the news: After weeks of hesitation, Trump endorsed Netanyahu last Sunday — and even suggested his defeat would have consequences for U.S.-Israel relations.

• Many of Trump's closest advisers opposed his decision to endorse Netanyahu, believing the president should stay out of the Israeli election, according to sources familiar with the discussions.

Vice President Vance notably declined to follow Trump's lead when asked about the election this week, amid growing hostility toward Netanyahu in parts of the MAGA movement.

• "I'm not attacking Bibi Netanyahu," Vance told reporters. "I'm not endorsing Bibi Netanyahu. I think the president's endorsement is ultimately what matters."

🔎 Zoom in: The vice president is among those close to Trump who became disillusioned with Netanyahu during the war with Iran.

• Vance and some top aides believe Netanyahu's pre-war assessments to the White House were mistaken, deepening questions about whether he remains the best partner for achieving Trump's regional ambitions.

🌐 The big picture: Once the Israeli election and U.S. midterms are over, Trump will face a defining choice for his Middle East agenda — whether to join Netanyahu in another major military operation against Iran.

• Netanyahu is eager to move forward. But the election results could influence Trump's decision, or at least the timing of any renewed large-scale fighting.

Trump also wants to move beyond the Iran war and pursue an ambitious diplomatic agenda that includes implementing his Gaza peace plan, brokering deals between Israel and Lebanon and Syria, and ultimately securing a historic Israeli-Saudi peace agreement.

• Whether Trump can make progress on those goals will depend in part on who governs Israel — and what kind of coalition emerges from Tuesday's vote.

🇮🇱 What to watch: Polls point to a potential political deadlock.

• Neither Netanyahu nor his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, appears to have a clear path to the 61 seats needed to form a government.

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No city or state requires an "I Voted" sticker, but they've become an Election Day staple across America, Ballotpedia notes.

• Some have classic red, white and blue designs, some feature state landmarks and some are even sketched by the voters or their kids for local contests.

More about the stickers.

One of the final snapshots of how Americans feel about the economy before voters head to the polls shows a nation still deeply frustrated by the cost of living, Axios' Courtenay Brown reports.

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index registered 48 in October — 10% below its level this time last year.

The intrigue: Separate data released alongside the index showed that the share of Republicans citing high prices as a drag on their finances has surged roughly 50 percentage points since January, a much larger increase than among Democrats or independents.

• Keep reading.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) shows the media a coin he handed to President Trump while greeting him on the tarmac in Fort Myers, Fla., yesterday after Air Force One landed for a midterm rally.

• "YOU MISSED BITCHES," the golden coin says, rendering Trump with a raised middle finger.

Someone give the governor a comma for Christmas.

All kinds of films, from big-budget spectacles to art house dramas, are getting longer.

• After analyzing 36,431 movies released theatrically from 1980 to 2025, researcher Stephen Follows found that the average length of a wide-release movie has grown from 106 to 114 minutes.

🍿 But there's little evidence that long runtimes are dissuading moviegoers, AP reports.

• "The Odyssey," with a running time of 173 minutes, is the year's second-highest-grossing movie, with $1.8 billion in ticket sales, and the front-runner for best picture at the Oscars.
• Two other top Oscar contenders — "La Bola Negra" (159 minutes) and "You Can See Everything" (174 minutes) — also run more than 2.5 hours.

"The moviegoing experience is evolving," Joe Russo, who is directing the upcoming "Avengers: Doomsday" with his brother Anthony, said in a recent interview.

• "Eventized cinema seems to be the draw to get people out of their homes. ... Length can certainly contribute to the feeling of an experience. In a lot of ways, it's the feeling of getting your money's worth."

The Russos expect "Doomsday," out Dec. 18, to run close to 2.5 hours.

• Explore the data ... Keep reading.

Taylor Swift's self-titled debut album — featuring smash hits like "Teardrops on My Guitar," "Our Song" and "Tim McGraw" — turns 20 today.

• Why it matters: For all the genres and eras Swift has explored since, that first collection of songs reveals just how much of the artist she'd become was there from the start, Axios Nashville's Adam Tamburin writes.

Zoom in: As journalist Emily Yahr writes in her new book "Taylor Swift: The Debut Years," many executives were skeptical that Swift's point of view would resonate with their target audience of 30-something women listening to the radio during carpool runs.

• But Swift insisted on writing for the kids in the back seat.

📝 By the numbers: Swift wrote or co-wrote more than 100 songs while preparing to release "Taylor Swift," Yahr says. The 11 tracks that made the cut leaned unapologetically into teenage experiences.

• The effervescent "Our Song," a classic Swiftian anthem that she wrote on her own for a freshman talent show, crackled with the giddy excitement of puppy love.

She eventually released it as the third single off of her debut album. It was her first to hit No. 1 on the country charts.

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