New data from South Africa and Europe hint that Omicron cases are poised to explode in the U.S., where the vast majority of the population isn't well protected against infection, Axios' Caitlin Owens writes.

• But the variant is less likely to lead to hospitalization in adults than the original version.

Why it matters: A dramatic surge in cases could overwhelm our burnt-out health system, if even a small percentage require hospital care.

"Everything points to a large wave," a senior Biden administration official told Axios. "A large wave is coming."

• "It will be fast. It won't be as severe, but regrettably, there will be plenty of hospitalizations," the official added.

The bottom line: We don't have enough data yet to make firm predictions. But there's a strong possibility a lot of Americans are about to get sick.

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There's deep, bipartisan resistance — even from those who support vaccine mandates — to imposing severe consequences on those who won't go along, Axios managing editor Margaret Talev writes from the Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index.

• Why it matters: This carries real political risk for Democrats. President Biden's mandates on federal workers and large employers face legal challenges across the country, and Republicans are trying to use the implementation of mandates as a midterm issue.

Between the lines: Education — not race, gender or party — was the biggest dividing line on this question.

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In an electric moment for the 1/6 investigation, Rep. Liz Cheney last evening read aloud texts that Don Jr. sent then-White House chief of staff Mark Meadows during the siege:

• "He's got to condemn this sh** Asap," President Trump's son texted.
• "We need an Oval address," Don Jr. texted later. "He has to lead now. It has gone too far and gotten out of hand."

Why it matters: It's clear that, whatever they say now, Trump allies knew in the moment that 1/6 was a calamity for Trump and the country.

The texts were among nearly 9,000 documents Meadows turned over to the committee before he stopped cooperating.

• Cheney said Fox News' Laura Ingraham texted Meadows during the insurrection: "Hey Mark, the president needs to tell people in the Capitol to go home ... this is hurting all of us ... he is destroying his legacy."
• Sean Hannity texted, according to the committee: "Can he make a statement? ... Ask people to leave the Capitol."

Cheney read the texts just before the committee voted 9-0 to recommend Meadows, a former House member, be held in contempt of Congress for refusing to comply with a subpoena.

• The full House is expected to vote today to refer the charges to the Justice Department.

Shortly after the vote, Meadows told Hannity on Fox News: "This is about Donald Trump and about actually going after him once again."

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The space industry has had a year of huge investments, major human launches and hundreds of satellites sent to space, Axios Space author Miriam Kramer writes.

• Why it matters: Years like 2021 help bolster predictions the space industry could be worth more than $1 trillion by 2040.

What's happening: Launch, satellite and analytics-oriented companies went public via SPAC and have shown that, at least initially, investors are interested in playing a part in the space industry.

• Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin launched their founders to space within weeks of each another, marking the culmination of decades of work. SpaceX continued to launch crews for NASA, and sent a private crew of astronauts to orbit for the first time.

Reality check: The public is just at the beginning of being able to invest in space companies. But many, including some Wall Street analysts, don't understand the industry's nuances.

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Timmy Tomes (left) and Dalton Finn look through what's left of a friend's roof in Bowling Green, Kentucky.

A home in Mayfield, Kentucky.

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Apple is within spitting distance ($7 a share) of becoming the world's first company to cross $3 trillion in market value. (Reuters)

Herschel Walker, the former football star now running for U.S. Senate in Georgia, tells Axios Atlanta's Emma Hurt that he's "accountable" for past violent behavior toward his ex-wife, and said people shouldn’t feel "ashamed" about confronting mental health issues.

• Why it matters: Some Republican leaders fear Walker's past could become a liability for the party. Just before Walker announced his candidacy this summer, reports surfaced of his ex-wife obtaining a protective order against him in 2005 after threats of violence.

The longtime ally of former President Trump wrote a book in 2008 about his life with dissociative identity disorder, laying bare past violent thoughts about harming himself and others, as well as infidelity.

• In his first major interview on the subject as a candidate, Walker said he's "better now than 99% of the people in America. ... Just like I broke my leg; I put the cast on. It healed." 

Walker said in the Zoom interview that, if elected, he'll push to expand mental-health resources in health care, law enforcement and the military.

• "Don't be ashamed to address your issues," he said. "For a man, it's very tough. For an African American man, it's even harder."

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Peloton's parody ad is getting lots of online attention, helping offset a brief crisis tied to last week's debut of "And Just Like That...," HBO's "Sex in the City" sequel, Axios Media Trends author Sara Fischer writes.

• Why it matters: The ad's quick turnaround helped give Peloton's stock a small boost yesterday, following a weekend of bad headlines.

Spoiler alert: Shares of Peloton fell after HBO aired the first episode of its highly anticipated "Sex in the City" sequel.

• In a widely shared moment, actor Chris Noth's character — "Mr. Big" — dies suddenly from a heart attack shortly after completing his 1,000th Peloton ride.
• Peloton told BuzzFeed News: "Due to confidentiality reasons, HBO did not disclose the larger context surrounding the scene to Peloton in advance."
• Peloton released a statement from a preventive cardiologist and adviser to the company, saying: "Mr. Big lived what many would call an extravagant lifestyle — including cocktails, cigars, and big steaks."

Peloton posted its own ad Sunday — "And just like that...he's alive" — depicting an alive Noth with Peloton instructor Jess King, who had been featured in the HBO scene.

• "To new beginnings," Noth tells King. "I feel great. Should we take another ride? Life's too short not to."

NewsWhip data provided to Axios shows that of the top 25 articles shared on social media about the incident, about half focused on the fallout from the HBO scene. The other half were about the ad.

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