Israeli officials insist their ground invasion of southern Lebanon will be limited in scope and length, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.

• But Israeli officials said that twice before — in 1982 and 2006. Those invasions of their northern neighbor escalated into far wider, deadlier and more protracted conflicts.

Why it matters: That could happen again.

The most dramatic possible consequence of a ground invasion would be convincing Iran to change course and get directly involved to save the militia it has built for decades.

• There's another scenario U.S. officials have been warning about for months: Pro-Iranian militias in Syria, Iraq and Yemen could come to Hezbollah's help, and either send their fighters to Lebanon or open another front through Syria.

🪖 Israeli troops raided southern Lebanon yesterday almost a year after Hezbollah began firing rockets toward Israel on Oct. 8 in solidarity with Palestinians.

• A senior Israeli official said the ground operation isn't aimed at occupying southern Lebanon — but at destroying Hezbollah outposts, tunnels, launchpads and other military infrastructure.

Israel's stated goal is to get tens of thousands of displaced Israelis back to their homes along the border without the fear of an attack by Hezbollah.

• Israeli officials also say they see this moment to significantly degrade and weaken Hezbollah and its ability to threaten Israel militarily.

🔎 Between the lines: Israel prepared for a confrontation with Hezbollah for 18 years. But many in Israel's defense establishment say they're surprised by how effective their attacks have been so far.

• Israeli officials told Axios that Hezbollah is in disarray with its remaining leadership hiding and its troops with low morale.

👀 Behind the scenes: U.S. officials told Axios the White House and the Pentagon realized their influence on Israeli decision-making regarding the war in Lebanon is limited.

• After telling the Israelis for weeks to avoid a ground invasion, in recent days the White House decided to focus on trying to minimize it as much as possible, officials said.

Reality check: The Biden administration isn't ruling out that the growing military pressure Israel is putting on Hezbollah might yield a diplomatic solution that could include a ceasefire, and weaken Hezbollah's influence in Lebanon and the region.

• "On the one hand, the Israelis really are playing with fire here," a U.S. official told Axios. "But on the other hand, what if it works?"

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🚨 Breaking overnight: Thousands of unionized dockworkers at 14 major ports stretching from Maine to Texas went on strike at midnight, Axios' Emily Peck writes.

• Why it matters: A work stoppage that lasts more than a few days raises the prospect of higher prices and shortages of everything from auto parts to bananas as the U.S. heads into the holidays — and a presidential election.

This is the first port strike on the East Coast since 1977 — well before the rise in global trade that's made shipping an even more critical piece of the country's supply chain.

• The strike halts the flow of about half the nation's ocean shipping.

Follow the money: Companies have known this strike was coming for months, and many have rerouted shipments to the West Coast or shipped goods early.

• But perishable goods, including fruits and vegetables, remain vulnerable.

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Beyond the physical and emotional toll of the storm, Hurricane Helene suddenly has created massive hurdles for voters and election officials just five weeks before Nov. 5, Axios' Erin Doherty and Lucille Sherman write.

• Why it matters: "Voting won't be a priority for a lot of people," said Seth Morris, an election law expert and associate at Parker Poe in North Carolina.

North Carolina election officials were already late sending out mail-in and absentee ballots because of an 11th-hour ruling that let RFK Jr. remove his name.

• Now, with mail and delivery services suspended in many areas, officials are racing to answer questions about how and when the voters who requested ballots will receive them.

Nearly 250,000 North Carolinians requested an absentee ballot this year, including almost 10,000 from Buncombe County, which includes Asheville and is one of the hardest-hit parts of the state.

Former President Trump visited hurricane devastation in Valdosta, Ga., yesterday — and drew a scolding from President Biden for trying to take political advantage, Axios' Sophia Cai writes.

• Trump began the day posting unsubstantiated claims that Biden's administration and North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) were "going out of their way to not help people in Republican areas."
• Biden said at the White House: "He's lying ... and the governor told him he was lying."

During the visit, Trump falsely claimed Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) hadn't been able to reach Biden to discuss the damage.

Austin Grindstaff, 14, salvages a framed photo from his grandparents' house in Old Fort, N.C.

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The stock market has been on a tear of late — up 34% over the past year and up 20% year-to-date, Axios' Felix Salmon writes.

• Why it matters: That's the best stock-market performance in the first three quarters since 1997, and it's boosted total returns over almost any time horizon.

The index's 30-year return is 1,135% — it's risen more than twelvefold in the past three decades — and currently stands at an all-time high.

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Vice President Harris' campaign is declining to say whether she would push to close private prisons as president — a pledge she has made since she was running for a Senate seat in 2016, Axios' Alex Thompson writes.

• Why it matters: Harris is backing away from liberal positions she previously framed as moral imperatives.

🔬 Zoom in: In her 2016 campaign for Senate and during her first run for president in 2019, Harris repeatedly called for federal and state governments to abolish the use of private prisons for citizens and undocumented immigrants.

• In 2019, Harris said it was "necessary to end the profit motive that drives these private prisons, as it is inhumane to profit off of imprisonment," according to an archived version of her website.

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Meta's new Orion glasses may still be a prototype that costs thousands of dollars to produce — but when you put them on they feel like the future, Axios' Ina Fried writes after trying a pair.

• These are glasses, not goggles, that can display info and even videos overlaid on the real world.

How it works: Orion — which is probably years off from consumer availability — connects wirelessly to a pencil case-sized computer and a mesh bracelet that can read the electrical signals that pass through a user's wrist.

• The glasses themselves are bulky but feel surprisingly light and comfortable — especially when you learn that every millimeter of the frame has some sort of electronics crammed in.

Keep reading ... Get Axios AI+.

Former President Jimmy Carter — the Georgia Democrat who wasn't content making the White House the last chapter of his legacy — is blowing out 100 candles today, Michael Graff writes for Axios Atlanta.

• Why it matters: Carter is the oldest surviving U.S. president — and longest-living ever.

Carter has said he was just hoping to live long enough to vote for Vice President Harris.

• Absentee ballots will begin mailing on Oct. 7.

🥜 Carter, who entered hospice care in February 2023, is being feted in his hometown of Plains, where he taught Sunday school at his hometown Baptist church until just a few years ago.

• Celebrations include a concert tonight.

Go deeper: His life in photos ... Get Axios Local.

Baseball legend Pete Rose — the sport's all-time hits leader whose legacy was tarnished after he was caught gambling on his team — died yesterday at 83.

• Why he mattered: Rose defined the game for generations of fans who grew up in the 1960s and 70s, the peak of his career.

🌹 Rose's biggest accomplishment was his 4,256 hits, breaking his hero Ty Cobb's 4,191 in 1985.

• He was a 17-time All-Star, played on three World Series teams and holds the major league record for games played.

Major League Baseball banned him in 1989 after an investigation showed that he bet on baseball, including Reds games while he was managing the team.

• He was declared ineligible for the Hall of Fame and spent five months in prison for tax evasion.

Rose didn't publicly admit to betting on the game until a 2004 tell-all book.

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☝️ Dikembe Mutombo — a Basketball Hall of Famer who was one of the best defensive players in NBA history and a longtime humanitarian — died yesterday from brain cancer. He was 58.

• Mutombo was known for the playful finger wag at opponents after blocking their shots, his height, his deep and gravelly voice and his massive smile.

Keep reading ... Best career blocks.