Tensions between Moscow and the West have reached new heights over the past several days:

• The war in Ukraine has veered into volatile new territory, ignited by a final push — in Washington, Moscow and Kyiv — to change the game before President-elect Trump takes office, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.
• Breaking: Today, Ukraine said Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) overnight targeting Dnipro, a city in the central-east of the country, the first time Moscow has used such a missile in the war. Get the latest.

Why it matters: There are 60 days until the inauguration — the starting gun for Trump's improbable vow to end the war between Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours.

President Biden, whose foreign policy legacy is tied to Ukraine's fate, has suddenly ditched his own guardrails limiting Kyiv's use of U.S. weapons.

• ☢️ Russia has responded by rattling its nuclear saber — sparking MAGA fears of "World War III."
• 🚀 Following a policy reversal by Biden, Ukraine on Tuesday used American-made long-range missiles, known as ATACMS ("attack-ems"), to strike inside Russia for the first time.

Putin responded by formally lowering the threshold for Russia to consider the use of nuclear weapons — namely against enemies supported by nuclear powers.

• Russia on Sunday launched one of its largest air attacks since the start of the war, bombarding Ukraine's power grid with hundreds of missiles and drones.
• 🚨 The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv closed Wednesday for the first time since 2022, issuing a shelter-in-place advisory for American citizens in anticipation of a "potential significant air attack."

Between the lines: Trump allies say Biden is engaging in needless escalation.

• "No one anticipated that Joe Biden would ESCALATE the war in Ukraine during the transition period," tweeted Ric Grenell, a former Trump official shortlisted for secretary of State. "This is as if he is launching a whole new war."
• "It's another step up the escalation ladder," Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), Trump's incoming national security adviser, told Fox News in response to Biden's shift on ATACMS.

🔮 What's next: Both Russia and Ukraine are fighting for every inch of territory, desperate to improve their negotiating position ahead of peace talks promised by Trump.

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged in an interview with Fox News this week that his country would likely "lose" the war if the U.S. cut off aid, as Trump has threatened.

Keep reading.

The House GOP's decision to bar Congress' first-ever transgender member from women's bathrooms spotlights a national trend: Republicans see targeting trans rights as a political winner, Axios' Dave Lawler and Erica Pandey write.

• Why it matters: Republicans are treating their victory as a mandate to further restrict trans people from accessing bathrooms, youth sports and gender-affirming care, citing one of President-elect Trump's closing ads: "Kamala is for they/them, President Trump is for you."

👉 Democrats, paralyzed by post-election finger-pointing, have been blindsided by the apparent potency of Republicans' anti-trans fear-mongering.

• The trans community — already a historically marginalized population — has been left wondering who exactly is standing with them.

House Speaker Mike Johnson announced yesterday that transgender people are banned from House bathrooms that correspond to their gender identity.

• Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) had introduced a bill to that effect, and made clear she was targeting her soon-to-be House colleague, Sarah McBride (D-Del.).

🔭 Zoom out: This goes far beyond Washington. There was a huge spike in anti-trans legislation at the state and federal level last year, and a record 665 such bills have been introduced this year, per the Trans Legislation Tracker.

• Republicans introduced 32 anti-trans bills just on the first day of the pre-filing period ahead of Texas' 2025 legislative sessions, journalist Erin Reed reports.

The other side: While Democrats were appalled by Mace's bill, they're divided over how to handle the broader issue.

• Keep reading.

Vice President Harris' 2024 vote total has now surpassed President-elect Trump's total in 2020 for third-highest of all time.

• The Trump-Harris popular vote margin is the narrowest since Bush vs. Gore in 2000, despite Trump's decisive electoral college victory.

🥊 Reality check: Harris won 7 million fewer voters than President Biden's 81.3 million in 2020, easily the highest total ever (charted above).

• Harris won far fewer voters than Biden in New York City, Chicago and L.A., and ran behind Biden in blue areas generally, a New York Times analysis shows.

🔎 Between the lines: The high vote totals for Trump, Biden and Harris relative to previous cycles are due in large part to population growth. But both were also unusually high-turnout elections.

• Overall turnout in 2024 as a proportion of eligible voters was 63.7%, per a University of Florida tracker — lower than 2020 (65.8%) but higher than any other election in decades.

The Magnificent Seven tech stocks — Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla — may be a bit less magnificent in 2025, Goldman Sachs suggests in an otherwise optimistic 2025 forecast, Axios' Emily Peck writes.

• After huge run-ups, the stocks are trading around fair value, in Goldman's estimation. That means the tech giants will need to keep growing at outsized rates for shares to keep climbing.

Why it matters: Those stocks are responsible for more than half of the 57% rise in the S&P 500 over the past two years.

• The stock market hasn't looked this top-heavy since the heyday of the so-called "Nifty Fifty" that drove a bull market more than half a century ago.

AI chip superstar Nvidia — the single biggest driver of stock market growth this year by a longshot — revealed in an earnings report last night that its profits nearly doubled in its latest quarter, Axios' Hope King reported.

• Nvidia's stock still fell slightly in after-hours trading — a sign of just how high market expectations are.

A majority of Americans (60%) don't plan to get the most current COVID vaccine, Axios' Maya Goldman writes from a new Pew survey.

Why it matters: There's a deep partisan divide around COVID vaccination, especially among adults over the age of 65 who remain at increased risk.

• The CDC in June recommended everyone over the age of 6 months get an updated COVID vaccine ahead of the coming respiratory virus season.

📊 About 60% of Democrats surveyed said they'll probably get, or already have gotten, the updated vaccine — compared with just 18% of Republicans.

• 🐘 About 30% of Republican seniors said they have gotten or likely would get the vaccine, compared with 84% of Democrats ages 65 and up.

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A woman told police she was sexually assaulted in 2017 by Pete Hegseth after he took her phone, blocked the door to a California hotel room and refused to let her leave, according to 22 pages of graphic investigative reports made public last night.

• Hegseth, a former Fox News personality who is President-elect Trump's nominee to be Defense secretary, told police at the time that the encounter was consensual, and he denied any wrongdoing, AP reports.

Investigators were alerted to the alleged assault by a nurse who called them after a patient requested a sexual assault exam, the report says.

• The patient told medical personnel something may have been slipped into her drink.

Hegseth's attorney has said a payment was made to the woman as part of a confidential settlement because Hegseth was concerned she was prepared to file a lawsuit that could have resulted in him being fired from Fox News.

• A spokeswoman for the Trump transition said the "report corroborates what Mr. Hegseth's attorneys have said all along: the incident was fully investigated and no charges were filed because police found the allegations to be false."

More details.

Axios CEO Jim VandeHei and I tonight have the honor of accepting the National Press Club's Fourth Estate Award — a chance to thank the many pioneers who helped make our ride possible, and to pass along our learnings.

• Why it matters: We love this gig — always have. It's mostly because of our relationships with readers like you — and fellow journalists who share our passion for the craft.

We've been asked by many people in media for copies of a step-by-step memo Jim wrote years ago about how to be a great journalist at Axios.

• Lots of the tricks apply to other jobs — developing relationships, studying the greats, collaborating smartly, steering clear of groupthink, being gracious and grateful.

🎁 So we're posting the memo publicly today, hoping the next generation of Jims and Mikes will read it, practice it — and join Axios and other media companies to keep up the fight for truth.

• Read the memo ... Let us know what you think: [email protected], [email protected].

"Comedian," Italian artist Maurizio Cattelan's "artwork" that features a single banana duct-taped to a wall, sold for $6.24 million yesterday, auction house Sotheby's said.

• The controversial work first sold in 2019 for $120,000. Sotheby's had estimated Wednesday's sale at $1 million to $1.5 million, Axios' Ben Berkowitz writes.

Yes, it really is just a banana from a grocery store, taped to a wall.

• Artnet reported that crypto entrepreneur Justin Sun was the buyer.

🧐 Answering a question we got from a few readers after Axios PM previewed the sale:

• The winner didn't buy the same banana that's been on display. Sotheby's says the fruit was meant to be replaced regularly, along with the tape.