Axios AM

November 07, 2024
๐จ This an Axios AM special edition: Washington's new world order, by Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen.
- We'll cover this historic shift clinically, insightfully and relentlessly.
๐๏ธ Next Tuesday, Axios will launch Hill Leaders, a new and newsy newsletter covering how the most powerful elected leaders grow & wield power on Capitol Hill.
๐ If you have inside dope on new cabinet or Trump staff picks, hit us at [email protected] and [email protected]. Lots more to come โฆ
- Smart Brevityโข count: 1,952 words ... 6ยฝ mins. Edited by Noah Bressner.
1 big thing: Most powerful Republican of the modern era
Donald J. Trump has vanquished the Bushes, the Clintons, the Bidens, the Obamas โ and the entire establishment of both parties, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write in a "Behind the Curtain" column.
- Why it matters: Trump is stronger than ever, backed by a party wholly remade in his image and opposed by demoralized and defeated Democrats.
Make no mistake: Trump will come to power better organized, better staffed and exponentially better positioned to dominate his party and the nation than he was last time.
- Trump promises to stretch the immense powers of the presidency, with historically wide latitude from a pliant, conservative Supreme Court.
- A new conservative media ecosystem โ centered on Elon Musk's X โ will amplify Trump's power and reshape America's information wars.
- And efforts to prosecute him are likely to end.
๐งฎ By the numbers: Trump's victory was astonishing in its sweep and scope. All but two states โ Washington and Utah โ went more heavily for Trump on Tuesday than in 2020 (Financial Times).
- Trump was backed by a remarkable 1 in 3 voters of color (NBC News exit poll).
- He improved over his 2020 performance among voters younger than 30, Black voters and Hispanic voters.
- President Biden won Latino men by 23 points in 2020. Trump won them by 10 points in 2024 (CNN).

๐ผ๏ธ The big picture: The roughly half of America opposed to Trump is left with little solace, and even less federal power. Trump's romp flipped the Senate to Republican control, and the GOP is on track to keep the House.
- Democrats are left without a leader or a clear ideological identity, after Vice President Harris ran a campaign light on ideas and heavy on emotion.ย She underperformed Biden's 2020 showing across the map.
Trump can brag of a new coalition, brimming with record-high Hispanic support, working-class zeal and a surge in younger voters. And any restraints from anti-Trump Republicans in Congress or inside his White House are gone.
- He vowed to use that power to punish or even jail his critics.
- He has pledged to carry out "the largest deportation operation in American history."
- He has threatened to fire thousands of government employees deemed disloyal.
๐ฎ What's next: Trump sources tell us he'll consolidate power by steering who runs the House and Senate and unleashing his agenda out of the gate, starting with an immigration crackdown.
- Watch for him to load his White House and cabinet with rich, accomplished men.

How it happened: How Trump won says a lot about how he'll govern, Trump advisers tell us.
- Trump will be Trump. He said and did whatever he wanted on the campaign trail โ and will do more of this in office. He will surround himself with capable people โ like he did with Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita on the campaign โ to bring some method to the public madness.
- Leverage his new base. Trump sees himself as the champion of toughness and the working class, which attracted a lot of Hispanic and Black men to his predominantly white, blue-collar base. It's no accident that Stephen Miller โ a top adviser on immigration policy adviser in the first Trump term, who's expected to have a top White House job in the new administration โ tweeted at 5:58 p.m. ET last night: "If you know any men who haven't voted, get them to the polls." And six minutes later: "Get every man you know to the polls."
- Destroy traditional media. He hates his media critics and witnessed the new power of X and Elon Musk, plus Joe Rogan and the other bro-tilted realms of the podcast world. Trump believes a weakened media is ready to collapse. Now he has a bigger, more powerful alternative to help replace it.
- Pound the "woke." Don't underestimate the damage Democrats did to their brand by promoting political correctness. Democratic strategists told us it's a huge problem for the image of the whole party, not just Harris. Trump saw this as vital to turning independents and apathetic voters into Republicans โ or at least Trump Republicans. The campaign was only the beginning.
What to watch: Expect Trump to lure economic advisers who'll be acceptable to the corporate establishment. Based on his path back to power, he knows his presidency will hang partly on low inflation and robust growth.
- Share this column ... Go deeper: How Harris lost, by Zach Basu + Mike.
2. ๐ฆพ The most powerful (unelected) man ever
America just elevated one man to an unfathomable status: the most powerful civilian โ ever, Jim and Mike write.
- Why it matters: Elon Musk, 53 โ the most influential backer of President-elect Trump, thanks to his money, time and X factor โ now sits at the pinnacle of power in business, government influence and global information (and misinformation) flow.
Trump has the White House and four short years. Musk has so much more since his influence cuts across government, media, business, the world, space and time.
๐ญ The big picture: To understand why, you need to understand the reach of Musk's power post-election and the stretch of his galactic ambitions.
- Let's start with power. It's unmatched. As this election showed, politics and influence flow downstream from information control.
- Musk, once seen by many as a fool for buying Twitter, now controls the most powerful information platform for America's ruling party. X makes Fox News seem like a quaint little pamphlet in size and scope.
Virtually every powerful voice in the Trump media ecosystem congregates on X โ where their reality, whether tethered to facts or fiction, are set. X will be the prosecutor, defender, jury and judge of Trump governance. "You are the media now," he proclaimed on X.
- Musk transcends X, with close friends running the most-listened-to podcasts and every mainstream media platform eager for his appearance. He's the rare figure with global sway.
The much bigger picture: Imagine you wanted to help mold America. You would instantly realize you need information dominance and vast political influence.
- With X and now Trump, Musk has both.
- The guy did a Mar-a-Lago sleepover on election night after throwing himself into the election โ donating at least $119 million to Musk's America PAC to help Trump, pushing JD Vance for the presidential ticket, then helping get Trump and Vance onto Joe Rogan's top-rated podcast.
His chef's kiss: His own last-minute appearance on Rogan's show, which won Trump the podcaster's endorsement.
- Musk is helping staff the top ranks of the incoming White House and is likely to run an unregulated entity to recommend ways to cut and reorganize government. Name another American figure with this kind of political juice.
Higher ambitions: Listen to Musk, and he always circles back to his belief in creating a multi-planetary future. He believes the future of our species is wholly dependent on it.
- Well, you get there by controlling space โ satellites, space travel and ultimately colonization. He has a virtual global monopoly on satellites and the hottest space company on the globe, Space X โ one NASA depends on.
The bottom line: This creates conflicts of interest at an epic scale. But it's hard to see the Trump White House caring, or Musk letting it slow him down. And, when you control a big chunk of the information flow, you get to shape how lots of people view it, anyway.
3. ๐๏ธ Hill leaders close to Trump
Five congressional leaders who have juice in President-elect Trump's Washington:
- Speaker Mike Johnson: The guy grew into the job, quickly by D.C. standards, and smartly hooked his fate to Trump. Three months ago, Johnson was a dead man walking. Now he's stronger than ever. He'll likely run a very narrow House โ again โ and hope he stays on Trump's good side.
- Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.): He's the strong favorite to be the new Mitch McConnell. If and when elected Senate Majority Leader, he'll be the most powerful man on Capitol Hill. First up: Get Trump's cabinet confirmed. Then start gaming out an epic tax fight.
- Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.): Arguably Trump's favorite senator โ a phone-a-friend in the Senate. Long mentioned for SecDef, Cotton instead will remain a Trump ally in the Senate โ where he's running against Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) for conference chair, the No. Senate GOP 3 leadership position, Axios Sneak Peek scooped last night. He'll remain Trump's TV-savvy defender โ front and center on Ukraine and the Middle East.
- Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.): He's a complicated dude. Often, Trump's biggest backer. But Trump runs hot and cold on him. His perch will be his power โ he's now the ranking member of the Judiciary Committee, and is expected to become chair of Budget in the new majority. [Correction: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is in line to reclaim his chairmanship of Judiciary.]
- Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer + House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries: Trump will deal with few elected Dems โ these two are basically it. They'll both likely get another shot at running the Senate and House. Job 1 and 2: Figure out how to make Trump's life hell and win back Congress in '26.
4. ๐ฅ Trump's next Situation Room
President-elect Trump wants to put familiar faces on his national security team after being burned during his first term, Axios' Barak Ravid writes.
- Why it matters: Sources said Trump doesn't want former generals on his national security team and prefers businessmen and CEOs. But he's also considering a line-up of loyalists in prominent D.C. positions.
Trump said several times that during his transition, he'd begin pushing for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine to end the war.
- He also signaled in public and in private that he wants to see the wars in Gaza and Lebanon end by the time he is inaugurated.
๐ Zoom in: Here are the top contenders, based on people close to this process.
State Department: A top candidate for secretary of state is former U.S. Ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell, the sources said.
- The sources said Grenell advised Trump on foreign policy during the campaign and would likely focus on Russia-Ukraine diplomacy.
- Two other candidates for the Secretary of State job are Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), who served as ambassador to Japan during Trump's first term, and Trump's former national security adviser Robert O'Brien.
Former State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagus is also often mentioned for a senior State Department position or for a top ambassador post.
- Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is a leading name for U.S. ambassador to the UN.
๐ช Defense Department and intelligence agencies: Several names have been floated for Defense Secretary, including former SecState Mike Pompeo and Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.).
- Waltz could also be considered for CIA director, in addition to John Ratcliffe, who briefly served as Director of National Intelligence under Trump.
- Another former Trump official who could get a senior foreign policy and national security position in the new administration is Brian Hook, who was Trump's Iran envoy and will lead the new administration's State Department transition team.
The White House: Grenell and Waltz are also potential candidates for national security adviser.
๐ Others to watch: Avi Berkowitz, who worked with Jared Kushner on the Abraham Accords, could also make a comeback and be part of Trump's Middle East team.
- David Friedman, who served as the U.S. ambassador to Israel during Trump's first administration, could go back for another term in this post.
5. ๐ Charted: Trump's battleground boom


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