One of the biggest forces that contributed to President Trump's defeat in 2020 also helped propel him to the White House in 2024.

• Why it matters: The pandemic pushed voters — from young men to suburban parents — to the right, fueling Trump's decisive victory and raising questions about Democrats' ability to hold onto once-reliable blocs, Axios' Erica Pandey and Erin Doherty report.

🦠 Catch up quick: COVID was a top issue in 2020 exit polls, with 52% of voters saying controlling the virus itself was more important than rebuilding the post-pandemic economy.

• That mindset shifted over the next four years, as closed schools, inflation and isolation frustrated voters — and changed many of their votes.

"Younger voters are in the process of understanding who they are and what their values are, and that was disproportionately shaped by COVID," says John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics. "It intensified economic anxiety and created this survivalist mindset."

• "Democrats helped create this vacuum, which was filled by Trump and Trump-aligned podcasters and influencers."

🗳️ Case in point: In 2020, voters under 30 broke for Joe Biden by 24 points. But in 2020, Vice President Harris won the youth vote by only 4 points, The Atlantic reports.

Many parents in deep blue cities and towns flipped their politics after seeing the effect of school closures and COVID isolation on their kids.

• When schools shut down, "I was always deeply concerned that the tradeoff for children would be grave," says Natalya Murakhver, a Manhattan mom, who organized the parent-led lawsuit to reopen New York City schools.
• Murakhver says she voted for Democrats her entire adult life, including for President Biden in 2020, but cast her ballot for Trump in 2024. For her, the turning point was when the Biden administration started walking back its pledge to reopen schools within its first 100 days.

🔭 Zoom out: Some experts saw this coming. Pandemics corrode citizens' faith in government — especially, and not surprisingly, among impressionable young people.

• Those who experience these events from the ages of 18 to 25 are more likely to develop a lasting lack of trust in political institutions and leaders, according to a study from the Systemic Risk Center at the London School of Economics.

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President Trump believes it's worth risking pain to achieve his medium-term goal of rewiring the U.S. economy. He's attempting a form of economic shock therapy, while accepting there could be collateral damage, Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin writes.

• Why it matters: That willingness to shrug off risks of inflation or recession is now rattling financial markets and confidence — and has emerged as the biggest near-term economic risk.

The administration has embraced that the economic disruption it envisions could be painful.

• That adds to the risk that if the economy starts to falter — and it hasn't so far, at least according to the high-level data — no cavalry will be coming from Washington to contain the damage.

🌎 The big picture: Trump is seeking to rapidly undo a global economic order that has been decades in the making. Americans enjoyed the fruits of cheap goods made around the world, at the cost of a diminished domestic manufacturing base.

• He envisions an economy with fewer bureaucratic paper-pushers and much more factory work.
• He seeks to bring down the deficit while keeping taxes low — which only pencils out if major cuts are made to America's social welfare programs.

Coming "detox": "Could we be seeing this economy that we inherited starting to roll a bit? Sure," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Friday on CNBC's "Squawk Box."

• "There's going to be a natural adjustment as we move away from public spending," Bessent added. "We've become addicted to this government spending and there's going to be a detox period."

🔎 Context: The mainstream view among Wall Street economists and Fed officials is that Trump inherited an economy that was in sound shape.

• The unemployment rate was low (4% in January). Inflation was far below its recent highs (2.5% for the 12 months ended January).

The Trump team rejects that view completely, arguing that Biden handed over an economy so terrible that it demands a wholesale rebuild. "Biden left him a pile of poop," as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick put it on Bloomberg TV last week.

⚡ Reality check: Economic change is often painful; just ask the U.S. manufacturing workers who lost their livelihoods amid the China shock of the early 2000s.

• Trump wants to change the fabric of the global economy at hyperspeed — which comes with political peril.

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Of the 60 congressional districts with the most federal workers, a slight majority are actually represented by Republicans — many of whom are publicly cheering on Elon Musk's hack-and-slash efforts, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is on the list. So is Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), who leads the ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus, and Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), the chair of the House Appropriations Committee.

• Several of their endangered GOP incumbents — including Reps. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) and Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) — are on there as well.

🧮 By the numbers: The districts with highest proportions of federal workers are in D.C., Virginia or Maryland, according to a 2024 Congressional Research Service report.

• Once you get past the top 10, ruby-red states — including Oklahoma, Alabama and Texas — start to show up more.

🪖 Zoom in: The Defense Department — which isn't being spared DOGE's wrath — accounts for high concentrations in some districts, like those of Kiggans and Cole.

• Rep. Nick Begich (R-Alaska) has a large military constituency. But agencies like the Interior Department, FAA and Postal Service also have significant presences, The Anchorage Daily News reports.

👀 Between the lines: Even as they have applauded DOGE's cuts in public, some Republicans have privately expressed pause at Musk's ruthless tactics.

• Musk is "more liked by people in the White House than anyone here [in Congress] because we have to deal with the ramifications of what he says," a House Republican recently told Axios.

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Fast-moving brush fires fanned by high winds burned through a large swath of Long Island yesterday, spewing thick gray smoke and prompting the evacuation of a military base and the closure of part of the Sunrise Highway.

• Three of four fires were contained yesterday evening. The fourth, in the Westhampton area, has been partially contained. (AP)

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has declared a state of emergency in Suffolk County, the island's easternmost county, which encompasses the Hamptons.

• Strong winds are expected to persist today, keeping Long Island's fire danger high, the N.Y. Times reports.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to travel to Doha on Tuesday evening in an effort to broker a new hostage-release and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, U.S. officials tell Axios' Barak Ravid.

• The talks would be the first since President Trump took office, and since the original agreement between Israel and Hamas that led to a 42-day ceasefire in Gaza and the release of 33 hostages.

What to watch: The Trump administration is pushing for a deal that would lead to the release of all remaining hostages, extend the ceasefire until after the Muslim holy month of Ramadan and the Jewish holiday of Passover and possibly lead to a long-term truce that would end the war.

• Hamas is still holding 59 hostages in Gaza. Among them are five Americans, including 21-year-old Edan Alexander who is believed to be alive.

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TIME's 2025 Women of the Year list, recognizing "extraordinary leaders fighting for a more equal future," includes actor and producer Nicole Kidman, WNBA MVP A'ja Wilson and Olympic gymnast Jordan Chiles.

• No field "more notably celebrated the strengths and achievements of women in the past year than women's sports," TIME senior editor Lucy Feldman writes, noting the "unprecedented audience engagement and surging financial support that women's sports received in 2024."

Full list ... How they were chosen.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup final is taking tips from the Super Bowl and adding a halftime show, Axios' Ashley Mahoney writes.

• Why it matters: This will be the first for the tournament, which will take place in 16 cities across the U.S., Canada and Mexico next summer.

What a halftime show will look like is still unclear, including whether or not halftime will be extended to accommodate the show.

• Coldplay will work with FIFA on the list of performers for the show, FIFA president Gianni Infantino said.

Some fans are protesting: "Stop Yankifying this sport."

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