The pandemic upended politics — twice
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One of the biggest forces that contributed to President Trump's defeat in 2020 also helped propel him to the White House in 2024.
Why it matters: The pandemic pushed voters — from young men to suburban parents — to the right, fueling Trump's decisive victory and raising questions about Democrats' ability to hold onto once-reliable blocs.
Catch up quick: Covid was a top issue in 2020 exit polls, with 52% of voters saying controlling the virus itself was more important than rebuilding the post-pandemic economy.
- That mindset shifted over the next four years, as closed schools, inflation and isolation frustrated voters — and changed many of their votes.
"Younger voters are in the process of understanding who they are and what their values are, and that was disproportionately shaped by Covid," says John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics. "It intensified economic anxiety and created this survivalist mindset."
- "Democrats helped create this vacuum, which was filled by Trump and Trump-aligned podcasters and influencers."
Case in point: In 2020, voters under 30 broke for Joe Biden by 24 points, but in 2020, Kamala Harris only won the youth vote by 4 points, The Atlantic reports.
And many parents in deep blue cities and towns flipped their politics after seeing the effect of school closures and Covid isolation on their kids.
- When schools shut down, "I was always deeply concerned that the tradeoff for children would be grave," says Natalya Murakhver, a Manhattan mom, who organized the parent-led lawsuit to fully reopen New York City schools. "You cannot stop growing up, and growing up entails the social relationships that can only be had in a physical space."
- Murakhver says she voted for Democrats her entire adult life, including for President Biden in 2020, but cast her ballot for Trump in 2024. For her, the turning point was when the Biden administration started walking back its pledge to reopen schools within its first 100 days.
Zoom out: Some experts saw this coming. Pandemics corrode citizens' faith in government — especially, and not surprisingly, among impressionable young people.
- Those who experience these events from the ages of 18 to 25 are more likely to develop a lasting lack of trust in political institutions and leaders, according to a study from the Systemic Risk Center at the London School of Economics.
- "You can think of epidemics as somewhat of a stress test for governments. Leaders have to respond fast and with the right policies," says Orkun Saka, the study's author. "There is almost no way to get it completely right. When you get it especially wrong, there is a deep scar in the eyes of the young generation."
The bottom line: Five years on, pandemic-era policies have ended, but the economic pain and divisions triggered by Covid linger and continue to influence politics.
- "I'm still a registered Democrat," Murakhver says. "But I feel party-less, which probably is a healthy place to be."
