Half of Americans expect misinformation spread by AI to impact who wins the 2024 election — and one-third say they'll be less trusting of the results because of artificial intelligence, according to a new Axios-Morning Consult AI Poll, Axios' Ryan Heath reports.

Why it matters: Such sentiments may fuel more doubt and anger around the first presidential race since the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Between the lines: Supporters of former President Trump were nearly twice as likely as backers of President Biden to say AI would decrease their trust in election results (47% to 27%).

• Self-identified liberals (21%) were nearly twice as likely to say they have used generative AI for work or education than moderates (11%) or conservatives (12%). That may be tied in part to age, with 35% of Gen Z but just 3% of baby boomers saying so.

Driving the news: The findings come as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer prepares for a major AI "forum" with top tech executives Wednesday.

What we're watching: Of those who have used AI to complete a task, 64% said they felt what the AI produces is better quality than what they could do on their own.

The big picture: The survey of 2,203 U.S. adults finds a majority of Americans expect humans to lose control of AI in the next 25 years.

• Americans across ideological lines feel more pessimistic (36%) than optimistic (26%) about the future of AI.
• Americans overall were more skeptical about whether AI can be effectively regulated than were computer scientists interviewed for a recent Axios-Generation Lab-Syracuse University AI Experts Survey.

By the numbers: 53% of survey respondents said misinformation spread by AI will impact who wins. That view was broadly shared across Fox, CNN, and MSNBC frequent watchers.

• 35% said AI will decrease their trust in election advertising (42% of Trump voters; 33% of Biden voters).

Yes, but: Mistrust of AI may reflect U.S. society's lack of trust in tech companies and more broadly in institutions — from big business to the military to the Supreme Court.

Interest in generative AI hit a peak in March, coinciding with the release of ChatGPT-4.

• That's according to tracking by Morning Consult, whose experts say the debate has shifted in recent months from what AI can do to how to manage AI's capabilities.
• Self-reported usage of AI tools cannot be independently verified.

Zoom in: No generation feels "very familiar" with generative AI, but Gen Zers (22%) and millennials (23%) are the most likely to feel that familiarity, and to show trust and interest in AI.

• Just 8% of Gen Xers and 4% of baby boomers feel "very familiar" with generative AI.
• Whether a parent lets their under-18 kids use AI is correlated with parents' own experience using an AI chatbot. Among parents who've used such a chatbot, 83% would allow their kids to, compared to 34% who haven't used such a product.

Details: About 1 in 3 U.S. adults said they're "very concerned" about the development of AI — a level consistent across levels of AI chatbot usage, and whether or not the respondent said they were enthusiastic about tech generally.

• More say humans are still smarter than AI (34%) than the reverse (22%) — but nearly two-thirds of those surveyed said we will definitely or probably reach a point where humans will lose control of AI.
• 54% of those who think humans will lose control of AI predict that switch will happen within five years, and 90% think it will happen in the next 25 years (about 6 in 10 of all respondents).

What they're saying: Eli Yokley, politics analyst at Morning Consult, said while concern about AI-driven misinformation is a "political uniter" across party lines, lack of trust in leaders and institutions "suggests peril for efforts on Capitol Hill to regulate the quickly budding technology."

What's next: There's no consensus on regulation. 1 in 3 respondents said AI can't be regulated effectively. That's a greater share than the 26% who said creating a new federal government agency is the best option.

• Even within their own party bases, no presidential candidate has "a lot" of trust from the majority of their own party to oversee AI.
• Just 35% of Democrats have a lot of trust in Biden to oversee AI regulation, compared with 40% of Republicans for Trump and 21% for Trump's closest primary rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

You can find details of the poll's methodology here.

The biggest changes to the iPhone 15 lineup are likely to come at the edges when Apple announces new products Tuesday.

What's happening: Apple's flagship phone is expected to add better cameras, a titanium casing and swap the proprietary Lightning port for a more standard USB-C connector.

Why it matters: Each year Apple aims to make the new iPhones compelling enough to convince a significant chunk of existing owners to upgrade, a task that has become harder as the years have gone on.

Details: Apple is holding its annual iPhone event at 10am Tuesday in the Steve Jobs Theater at its Apple Park headquarters in Cupertino. California.

• The company is expected to keep its iPhone lineup largely similar in structure, though reports suggest the highest-end devices could see a $100 price increase.
• In addition to the new USB-C connector, reports suggest the highest-end iPhone 15 model could get a more capable optical zoom, offering perhaps as much as 6x magnification via a "periscope" lens.
• Apple is also expected to introduce new versions of the Apple Watch and, possibly, new AirPods headphones.

Google's philanthropic arm is investing $20 million in a new Digital Futures Project and an accompanying fund designed to help ensure AI reaches its promise and avoids potential pitfalls.

Why it matters: Google says it wants broad participation to help answer societal questions such as how AI impacts global security, how it will affect the labor market and how governments can use AI to boost productivity and economic growth.

Details: Google says the project will "support researchers, organize convenings and foster debate on public policy solutions to encourage the responsible development of AI."

• The fund will support academic and nonprofit institutions from countries around the globe.
• Among the first recipients are: the Aspen Institute, Brookings Institution, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the Center for a New American Security, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Institute for Security and Technology, MIT Work of the Future, R Street and SeedAI.

Between the lines: Critics have warned that AI creates or exacerbates a number of societal challenges, including algorithmic bias, misinformation and the existential risk of 0ut-of-control computers.

What they're saying: "We've said that it will take the proverbial village — collaboration and deep engagement from all of us — to get AI right," Google.org's Brigitte Hoyer Gosselink said in a statement to Axios.

• "We're optimistic about AI's opportunity to make our lives easier and address societal problems from health and medicine to climate change and natural disaster preparation," she said. "But we need responsible approaches to get this right."

Of the 229 companies in Y Combinator's latest batch of startups, 138 describe themselves as working in AI, machine learning or some related category, Axios' Kia Kokalitcheva reports.

• Meta is developing a new open-source large language model that aims to match GPT-4, OpenAI's most advanced model. (Wall Street Journal)
• Amazon will require ebook authors to disclose if they have used AI to produce their manuscript. (Associated Press)
• AI systems like ChatGPT are using a lot of water, per a new report. (Associated Press)

Nope, it's not AI. Ashley Mayer captured this incredible shot doing a three-day safari in Masai Mara ahead of a Kauffman Fellows summit in Nairobi, Kenya.