There may be an AI bubble forming, but everyone in Davos is convinced they won't be the ones left holding the bag.

Why it matters: Businesses are investing almost unfathomable sums in AI, but there is a growing sense that at least some companies won't be able to recoup their massive investments.

The big picture: AI remains the talk of Davos as CEOs and political leaders remain convinced that the technology is leading to a massive societal shift.

The other side: Even if you agree AI is real and significant, the internet was real, too, and that didn't prevent the dot-com bust.

• While mood and sentiment certainly play a role in the timing of when boom turns to bust, the driving factor is the economics, namely whether too much was invested too soon to produce a reasonable return.

Zoom in: So who is safe and who is vulnerable if the tide turns? If you ask the big guys, they will be fine.

• Google, for example, points to the fact that it can spread the cost of its massive investments across its consumer and enterprise businesses, whether it's via ads on YouTube, subscriptions to Gemini or big businesses renting compute from Google Cloud.
• "We maximize the return on investment we're getting and that allows us to have real strength financially, to continue to invest going forward," Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian said during an interview at Axios House Davos.

Others claimed they would be insulated because they aren't building the infrastructure and can pay as they go instead.

• "SAP is very capex-lean," SAP executive board member Thomas Saueressig told me on the sidelines of the DLD conference in Munich. "We benefit from the R&D efforts and the investments our partners are doing."

Writer CEO May Habib pointed to the biggest AI labs — Anthropic and OpenAI — as the ones most at risk.

• "When you look at either of the big labs right now, they're both basically valued at more than Salesforce plus Adobe plus Databricks plus Snowflake," Habib said on stage at Axios House on Monday. "That's hard to kind of wrap your head around, because those other companies are working really, really hard to bring AI to their customer base."

Snowflake CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy warned, however, a bubble burst would have sweeping impacts.

• "If there is a correction, then the entire stock market, including the valuation of our company, including Snowflake, is going to go down," he said on stage at Axios House on Monday.
• "On the other hand, in terms of good bubbles and bad bubbles, if this bubble results in a reinvigoration of the power sector, which as you know, is not something that's been attractive for investments, that's actually a net positive for all of us."

Zoom out: In a few decades' time, all of the investment will have been worth it, many execs agreed.

Read more.

Anthropic yesterday released an updated "constitution" for Claude, formalizing how the company trains its chatbot to reason about values and behavior as it encounters new, unanticipated situations.

Why it matters: As AI models grow more capable, Anthropic is betting that training systems to reason about values and judgment — not just follow guardrails — will prove safer and more durable than racing to ship faster.

Anthropic's "constitution" — previously referred to internally as the "soul" doc — was written specifically for Claude to define its ethos, Anthropic's Amanda Askell tells Axios. Askell is a member of the company's technical staff, in charge of shaping Claude's character.

• The team developed the document with outside experts in areas where AI models pose higher risks.
• It reflects the company's current thinking, but is written to evolve over time.

The new constitution is more flexible. It's designed to help Claude "behave in a way that's responsible and appropriate given the situation it's in," Askell says.

• Anthropic trains Claude to be "broadly good," but also to reason about what that means across different circumstances.

The big picture: The recent popularity of Anthropic's newest model powering Claude for work and fun may signal growing demand for stronger guardrails.

Keep reading.

Cowboys in the American West are increasingly managing cattle not just from horseback, but from smartphones and with artificial intelligence.

Why it matters: AI won't be the end of cowboys. But AI-adjacent tools help fewer people manage more land, quietly redefining the job by turning cattle, fences and water systems into data streams.

• The technology being marketed as "AI for ranching" uses GPS collars, algorithms and remote sensors to move herds, monitor water and rotate grazing as labor shortages, drought and wildfire pressure mount.

How it works: Solar-powered smart GPS collars from the New Zealand-based company Halter guide cattle through virtual fences instead of barbed wire.

Read more.

Nonprofit EqualAI is releasing its AI governance playbook during the World Economic Forum to help board directors grapple with the technology.

Why it matters: AI is rapidly reshaping corporate America, and board directors responsible for legal and compliance oversight have little practical guidance.

Driving the news: EqualAI's playbook, shared first with Axios, offers a framework for overseeing AI risk, with four key steps for boards.

Keep reading.

• South Korea today introduced what it says is the world's first comprehensive set of laws regulating AI, as startups warn of compliance burdens. (Reuters)
• Meta again topped Big Tech in federal lobbying. (Axios)
• Apple plans to revamp Siri by turning the digital assistant into the company's first AI chatbot. (Bloomberg)
• Liza Minnelli is among the artists who collaborated on a new AI-generated album. (NBC News)

Hi from Davos! I'll be off next week (or at least most of it), but back the following week reporting from the Winter Olympics in Milan, Italy.