Democrats are barreling toward an identity crisis: When Donald Trump is gone, they're not sure what they'll stand for.

• Top party strategists are warning they can't win back the White House in 2028 by coasting on voters' dissatisfaction with the president and MAGA.

🤔 Why it matters: Democrats expect to pick up congressional seats in this year's midterms by riding an anti-Trump wave — and history suggests they're probably right. But some in the party worry they could learn the wrong lessons from victory.

• "You can't win a presidential election on opposition alone," Jim Messina, who was Barack Obama's 2012 campaign manager, told Axios.
• "The midterms are going to be 85-90% driven by voter opposition to Trump and maybe 10-15% based on what Dems stand for," he said. "We cannot rely on that same calculation to win in 2028."

🤺 Fighting Trump has been Democrats' driving force for the better part of a decade. But he won't be on the ballot again, and Messina and other strategists argue the party needs a clear, forward-looking agenda soon.

• Democrats criticize Trump's administration on immigration, affordability and foreign policy, but there's little consensus on their own governing vision.

Messina says Democrats leaned too heavily on anti-Trump sentiment in 2024 after outperforming expectations in the 2022 midterms by running against MAGA.

• 👓 He believes Democrats' new vision should focus on the economy.

David Plouffe, Obama's 2008 campaign manager and a senior adviser on Kamala Harris' 2024 campaign, likewise told us that Trump's sinking popularity doesn't mean Democrats have solved their own problems.

• 🏈 "If your opponent turns the ball over five times in a football game, you'll almost certainly win," Plouffe said. "That doesn't mean you played a great game."
• "Democrats for the next decade have to be able to win elections in what are now red states in neutral and even challenging environments. Anyone who thinks we are ready to do that is spending too much time inhabiting a political world that does not exist."

By the numbers: Polls indicate that even as voters sour on Trump, they haven't warmed much to Democrats.

• 52% of voters see the Democratic Party negatively, while only 30% view it positively, according to a recent NBC survey — worse ratings than they give the GOP, which is also unpopular.
• The same poll found voters trust Republicans more than Democrats to deal with border security, crime and immigration. On the economy, Democrats didn't have an advantage despite Americans' anger over high prices under Trump.

Friction points: Democrats are deeply divided over what they'd do if they returned to power. They're on the same page on some issues, such as reversing the GOP's cuts to the Affordable Care Act, but they're all over the map on many others.

• Democrats once championed "comprehensive immigration reform," but since Trump's 2024 victory they've mostly been mum on the future of the asylum program, paths to citizenship for people already here, continuing to build the border wall, and more.
• Left-wing Democrats want to overhaul the health care system by implementing Medicare for All, while moderates prefer less dramatic changes such as a public option or fixing parts of the ACA.
• The party has no clear climate-change agenda after voters didn't reward former President Biden's historic investments in green energy.

🇮🇱 Democrats' future relationship with Israel remains unclear. The party's left wing questions U.S. support for the Jewish state after its war in Gaza, while centrists largely back the longtime American ally even as some criticize Benjamin Netanyahu's administration.

• Even "affordability" means different things to different Democrats. For democratic socialists such as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, it's free buses and city-run grocery stores. For New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill, a more mainstream Democrat, it's a promise to not hike sales taxes and focus on utility costs.
• Then there are the party's internal differences on AI regulation, tariffs, taxes and policies affecting transgender people.

🔮 What's next: Left-wing and centrist Democrats, including potential presidential candidates, are beginning to put forward plans to cut taxes, take on Big Tech and overhaul education — early attempts to shape the party's post-Trump identity.

Read more.

— Holly Otterbein, Alex Thompson

🌵 Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego gave a boost to embattled Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin on Friday at a private fundraiser in Salt Lake City, people familiar with the senator's remarks told Axios.

Why it matters: Gallego, a potential 2028 presidential contender, praised Martin at a time when many Democrats are worried about Martin's leadership — and as others eyeing the White House have spurned requests to give more help to the DNC.

• 🙏 "Thank you for your leadership," Gallego told Martin while speaking at the DNC's biannual National Finance Committee retreat with some of the party's biggest donors.
• "Thank you for your belief in this party at a moment when a lot of people are tempted to get discouraged," Gallego said.

Gallego also praised the DNC's new "When We Count" program to register new voters in key districts.

• "It reflects a lesson a lot of us have learned the hard way: You cannot parachute into communities two months before an election and expect to win," Gallego said. "That is what chair Martin understands."
• Two other potential 2028 presidential candidates, Sens. Mark Kelly of Arizona and Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, also attended the retreat to help rally donors to the DNC.

💰 Between the lines: The fundraising retreat comes as the DNC faces large financial challenges.

• The committee has more than $17 million in debt and about $15 million on hand.
• Many big donors have stayed on the sidelines during the past year, citing disappointment with the 2024 election results and being underwhelmed by Martin's first year as chair.

Read more.

— Alex Thompson

A look at what potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders are up to:

• Former Vice President Harris canceled a trio of book tour stops in California. Ticketmaster, which sells tickets for Harris' tour, said the cancellations were because of a "scheduling conflict."
• New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed progressive candidate Junaid Ahmed in a competitive open primary in Illinois.
• California Gov. Gavin Newsom went to Miami for an event promoting his new book with journalist Jorge Ramos. He's also planning a $19 million marketing campaign to promote his state's image, which has been a longtime punchline for Republicans.
• Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro was the only likely Democratic presidential candidate to speak at the International Association of Fire Fighters' annual U.S. Legislative Conference. Shapiro also appeared on HBO's "Real Time with Bill Maher" and talked about "getting sh*t done" — his rallying cry for making government more efficient. Maher asked him to move to California and help cut the Golden State's regulatory red tape. And Shapiro told "Pod Save America" that he's never eaten a Philly cheesesteak, because he keeps kosher.
• Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg campaigned in Georgia for House candidate Shawn Harris, who's mounting a long-shot bid to replace former Rep. Marjorie Taylor-Greene. Buttigieg also participated in a town hall in Alabama with Birmingham Mayor Randall Woodfin.
• New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker is the latest 2028 hopeful to unveil a plan to slash income taxes for poor and middle-class Americans.
• Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said she hasn't decided whether to run for president, but that she'd like to continue to serve the public after her second term ends. "I just know that we're going to have a lot of work to do as a nation and we need great people, and I like to think of it as an Avengers-style approach," she said.
• Maryland Gov. Wes Moore appeared on the podcast "South Beach Sessions" and was asked if he thinks President Trump is racist: "I think it's something that he needs to answer to. ... I would hope that the people who are close to him are asking him to be a little bit more self-reflective."
• A Washington Post op-ed ripped into California Rep. Ro Khanna, saying he "apparently decided that exploiting the Epstein scandal, facts and propriety be damned, is the way" to become better-known. Khanna wrote on social media that the author's "real beef with me has been that I have called what happened in Gaza a genocide."
• Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker sat down with the New York Times' Lulu Garcia-Navarro for "The Interview."
• Arizona Sen. Kelly and his wife, Gabby Giffords, are slated to campaign in New Hampshire for Rep. Chris Pappas' Senate bid on Friday.
• Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel will head to the Granite State for a town hall on March 30.
• Former Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo will attend the annual Reagan National Economic Forum in California in May.

Campaigning didn't always come easy to Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.

• 🗳️ "I lost every single election that you could imagine," he told Louisville Business First a few years back, "whether it was elementary or middle or high school."

That changed in college, when Beshear became president of Vanderbilt University's Interhall Association, which oversaw student-life programming.

• 🥃 Then, he argued for criminal justice reform — at least when it came to college drinking. The penalties at the school were too harsh, he argued then.
• "The alcohol policy needs to be a rehabilitative model instead of a punitive model," he told the Vanderbilt Hustler in 1999. "It needs to correct behavior and not to scar the people who are convicted."

Some of his other policy priorities included bold reforms such as an additional "computer facility and ATM service" on campus. Simpler times!

— Holly Otterbein, Alex Thompson