Contested races fuel high turnout in Minnesota's primary elections
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Minnesota polling places are open 7am to 8pm on Aug. 11. Photo: Christopher Mark Juhn/Anadolu via Getty Images
Hotly contested races for open seats are driving high turnout in Minnesota's midterm primary.
Why it matters: The outcome of Tuesday's elections will shape the high-stakes November matchups — and Minnesota's political landscape more broadly.
By the numbers: More than 206,000 Minnesotans had already cast a ballot as of Monday — far exceeding the midterm primary early vote record of 155,000, set in 2022.
- Given those numbers, it's possible that the final turnout tally could rival — or beat — the raw-vote record for primary ballots cast in a non-presidential election year: 925,554.
Driving the interest: Public polling points to close races in some of the contests drawing the most attention — and spending.
Marquee matchups include:
U.S. Senate (DFL): The race between U.S. Rep. Angie Craig and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is the latest in a series of moderate vs. progressive showdowns across the nation.
- Craig's side has more cash, but Flanagan has the backing of the DFL Party and left-wing leaders like U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders.
U.S. Senate (GOP): Former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze, former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya and 2024 U.S. Senate nominee Royce White compete for the GOP nod.
- Tafoya, who leads in public polls, has a big fundraising advantage and the backing of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which believes she could help put the seat in play in November. Schwarze secured the often decisive Republican Party endorsement.
Governor (GOP): House Speaker Lisa Demuth, second-time candidate Kendall Qualls and MyPillow founder Mike Lindell are the top contenders to take on presumptive DFL nominee Amy Klobuchar.
- Qualls is the MNGOP-backed candidate, while Lindell secured a coveted Trump endorsement. Demuth has the most money behind her bid.
Plus: As we reported Monday, there are plenty of other consequential contests, including a five-way race for Hennepin County attorney and a three-way DFL primary for Craig's current U.S. House seat.
What we're watching: Close observers of state and national politics will be looking to the results for answers to questions beyond which candidates advance to the November ballot:
- Do the DFL and GOP endorsements still matter? In all three races, better-funded candidates with establishment support are facing rivals who won the backing of party activists this spring.
- Does President Trump still have pull in Minnesota? Lindell rose in the polls after Trump's July endorsement — prompting rare pushback from state GOP leaders.
- Which direction do Democrats take? The U.S. Senate primary is the latest proxy battle in the party's national debate over ideology and electability heading into 2028.
- Is ICE still a major motivator for DFL voters? A Flanagan win — along with a turnout surge in that race — could signal that opposition to Operation Metro Surge continues to energize Democratic voters.
What's next: Results will start to trickle in after the polls close at 8pm.