Dems' fight over party future is on Tuesday's ballots

• Progressives argue that Americans are hungry for a populist, tax-the-rich agenda, while moderate and establishment-aligned Dems believe the party needs to tack to the center to win back swing voters.
• This week's contests — and several others in the coming months — will help determine which of these paths Democratic voters want this year.
• They'll also help lay the groundwork for the party's strategy in the run-up to the 2028 presidential election — when Trump won't be on the ballot.

These are the key races to watch Tuesday:

1. Iowa's Senate primary: Democrats think the political environment is favorable enough that they have a chance to flip a Senate seat in this deep-red state. Josh Turek, a moderate Democratic state lawmaker and Paralympic gold medalist, is seen as the favorite in their primary against progressive Zach Wahls. A Turek victory would be a win for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), who's quietly indicated he thinks Turek's the more electable candidate. Wahls has made attacking Schumer a key part of his campaign. The primary winner will likely face GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson this fall.
2. California's open primary for governor: In this state's "jungle primary," the top two candidates, regardless of party, will advance to the Nov. 3 election. A leading Democrat is Tom Steyer, a billionaire philanthropist who's being advised by left-wing consultants who helped run New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's campaign. Another is former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, a more traditional Democrat. A Trump-endorsed Republican, Steve Hilton, is also in the mix.
3. New Jersey's 12th Congressional District: New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders are backing progressive Adam Hamawy in the crowded Democratic primary to succeed retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman in this blue seat. Hamawy, a U.S. Army veteran who's viewed as the frontrunner, also is backed by a pro-Palestinian super PAC. He's attracted negative headlines for his former ties to an infamous Islamist cleric. Other Democratic candidates in this central Jersey district include progressive activist Sue Altman, as well as state Assemblywoman Verlina Reynolds-Jackson and East Brunswick Mayor Brad Cohen, who are viewed as more establishment-oriented or moderate.
4. California's 22nd Congressional District: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has thrown its weight behind state Assembly Member Jasmeet Bains in the primary for a battleground seat in the Central Valley. Progressives have lined up behind community college professor Randy Villegas. They're both vying to take on GOP Rep. David Valadao in the fall.
5. California's 11th Congressional District: Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi has endorsed Connie Chan, a member of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, to fill the seat Pelosi's vacating. Leftist Saikat Chakrabarti, a former chief of staff to AOC who notably lacks her endorsement, is proudly anti-establishment. Another contender is state Sen. Scott Wiener, who's seen as more moderate than Chakrabarti and Chan.

Other races we're watching: There are several other progressive-vs.-moderate primaries in California on Tuesday, along with others testing voters' appetite for generational change, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.

What's next: More ideological showdowns between Democrats are coming soon in New York, Minnesota and Michigan.